Is life never going back to normal?

[JuneMoonstone]

I feel incredibly lucky that I've lived 44 years of a normal life. I am heartbroken at the way life has become. Like so many others, I feel like I am existing, not living. I don't see any point in making plans, I don't feel any hope for the future. I was feeling quite positive about the progress made in the UK with vaccines and seeing the infection rates and death rates lower. However with the news about the rest of Europe going into lockdown due to escalating infection rates, I can't help but feel that we are never going to get out of this bloody mess. I cannot help but believe that we will have to live our lives under constant restrictions forever now because of this virus. Is life really going to be shit from now on? Will I ever be able to, for example, go into a busy pub on a Friday night and watch a live band and have a bloody good time again? Will we have to wear face masks permanently in public places from now on? I get a very strong feeling that this will be the case. It's my daughter I feel for the most. She's just 5 years old. What kind of a life is she going to have?

Well, anyone attending Public Health England seminars will tell you they are expecting another wave in the Autumn regardless. So how normal life can be kind of depends on things like how ill the virus is capable of making people by then and how quickly it spreads.

I'm very positive about things returning to a almost complete normal by September.
Even if there is a 3rd wave, people are less likely to get to the hospital stage as the most vulnerable and elderly have had the vaccination

I listened to Evan Davies’ Radio 4 Program this morning. All about Covid and what went wrong, what went right etc. It’s a two parter and today was the second part. Rory Stewart was in. He lost out in the Party Leadership to Johnson. He was just so... sensible. Informed, calm, intelligent. I think the mistake was made when Johnson was picked by the Brexiters, back in the day. That’s when our country started to fall apart.

I’ve never voted Tory and never will. But I love Rory Stewart. He would have been a great leader through these times.

I think we will get back to normal but will be 3-5 years

@MiaMarshmallows

I'm very positive about things returning to a almost complete normal by September. Even if there is a 3rd wave, people are less likely to get to the hospital stage as the most vulnerable and elderly have had the vaccination

As far as I know 58% of the population is completely unvaccinated, and only 3.4% have had both doses.

We need at least 70% of the U.K. population to have had both doses for herd immunity. (Israel say 90%)

That's why we're not seeing the same "vaccine effect" as Israel yet. I am hopeful that once we do finish vaccinating the vulnerable in June/July we'll start to see it more clearly then.

The JCVI 9 priority groups are 48% of the population. Many of them haven't had a first jab yet. Most of them haven't had a second. I have relatives in the most vulnerable group JCVI 1 who haven't had their second yet.

In addition, the vaccines may not work as well for them "as advertised" because of their age and/or health status.

In the other half of the population we don't know who is vulnerable, but we do know that men over 40 is one of the largest groups in ICU.

And as Chris Whitty says, all the modelling shows at least 30,000 more deaths which is probably 600,000 more serious illnesses.

I'm optimistic about the vaccines but realistic about the time frame involved.

@Bythemillpond

Hasn’t there been something passed in parliament about extending lockdowns till September.

I know more people who have killed themselves because of lockdowns (not in this country) than have died of Covid.

Somebody just suggested to me that they're letting the Shielders out from March 31st to give them a break in case we have to go back into lockdown again.

Last year pausing Shielding was one of the last restrictions lifted on August 1st, so this is much earlier in the open up, but many of them have probably had one jab (not the shielded children or those who cannot have the vaccine, and it may not work as well for them as with a completely healthy person.)

I think the Govt. we’re fully aware that by end of March there’d be shortages of vaccine and changed their program accordingly from 2nd dose 21 days after 1st. That way, they could reach more people with a bit of immunity.

I don’t trust any of them.

@PrincessNutNuts a lot of unvaccinated people are immune after infection so they’re contributing to herd immunity too.

As far as I know 58% of the population is completely unvaccinated, and only 3.4% have had both doses

I would think there are many more who have had Covid who are immune who don’t show up on any graphs or data as they had it pre February 2020 or like a few friends of my dc who had parents who worked in the NHS etc who were diagnosed with Covid but although the rest of the family got ill the rest of the family didn’t get tested because they knew what it was.

[quote bumbleymummy]@PrincessNutNuts a lot of unvaccinated people are immune after infection so they’re contributing to herd immunity too.[/quote]
Immune to which variant?

And Immunity wears off.

PrincessNutNuts
Given our experience all of them so far.
It has been 15 months and counting. Just because you are vaccinated it doesn’t give you more protection than a full blown dose of Covid.

@Bythemillpond

As far as I know 58% of the population is completely unvaccinated, and only 3.4% have had both doses

I would think there are many more who have had Covid who are immune who don’t show up on any graphs or data as they had it pre February 2020 or like a few friends of my dc who had parents who worked in the NHS etc who were diagnosed with Covid but although the rest of the family got ill the rest of the family didn’t get tested because they knew what it was.

How long does immunity last though? And how useful is immunity from catching the older types of covid against the new variants?

@Bythemillpond

PrincessNutNuts Given our experience all of them so far. It has been 15 months and counting. Just because you are vaccinated it doesn’t give you more protection than a full blown dose of Covid.

Doesn't it rather depend which covid you built up immunity to versus which covid is now dominant and trying to infect you?

Studies show 6-8+ months and expected to last longer. The most recent study I read showed protection against reinfection and transmission for the old variant and the B.1.1.7 variant. It was a U.K. based study.

@bumbleymummy

Studies show 6-8+ months and expected to last longer. The most recent study I read showed protection against reinfection and transmission for the old variant and the B.1.1.7 variant. It was a U.K. based study.

Let's hope none of the others gain dominance then. 🤞

We need at least 70% of the U.K. population to have had both doses for herd immunity
But all adults (18+) is only 77% of the UK population.

Also I am sure that the figure for herd immunity has been revised upwards from 70%.

If I remember where I read that I will post a link.

@JuneMoonstone

Thank you for all your replies. I'm struggling to come to terms with it all, even after all this time. What I don't understand is that there have been pandemics in the past such as Spanish Flu, but they lasted for a limited period of time and then they ended and life resumed as normal. What is it about Covid 19 that makes it different from all the other pandemics in the past, in that our way of living will be changed permanently? Why is there the liklihood that we will have to wear face coverings for many years to come when this wasn't the case for the Spanish flu? Is it because we are being prepped for another pandemic that is expected to arrive imminently, so that social distancing and face coverings become the norm? Do I need to just accept that from now on, whenever I go into a shop, any public space or when I take my child to school, that I need to wear a face covering? Do I need to give up the hope of ever going to the theatre again? Will I ever be able to shake someone's hand again, unless they are a member of my immediate family?

Life didn’t resume “as normal” after Spanish flu.

The way people lived changed substantially. It’s just that whatever technology is available shapes the nature of that change.

So for example it was a time when suburban living took off, because motorised transport made living further out from city centres easier, and people wanted to live in less crowded spaces with gardens and fresh air.

After Covid (it’s happening already), high speed internet will expand the places people live and work in a similar fashion to motorised transport.

Probably not. The damned thing is like the Hydra. You chop off one variant head and another two variant heads spring up in its place

I feel really miserable all of a sudden. Even our better vaccinations don't make it any better if the rest of the world is rubbish. Even the EU have made a right bodge of it. It's very rare that the UK does anything well! What about very poor countries where they aren't doing anything. Is the WHO or UN looking at those? Because else we'll be under a constant attack of new variants.

Which view?

Really? Was it that difficult are you like this in rl, tiring!

Here you go. Again

“And what will happen, once the vaccination has rolled out across a wide enough part of the population, so that the most vulnerable are protected but also so that enough people are protected, to actually reduce the risk for the whole society – that’s going to take a rather long period of time, but months, not years.”

Whitty said restrictions will be lifted “stage by stage” and not in one go, which will allow life to get to “basically” how it was before the pandemic.”

You say you listen to him and think him right. So timing for him is this year back to normal not next.

There’ll be flu level of deaths but as we accept those will will that too.

So do you disagree with his view on timing?

I'm very positive about things returning to a almost complete normal by September
and
I think we will get back to normal but will be 3-5 years

I think Johnson could think either or both of these!

The truth is - we haven't got a clue.

That's why there's an air of grimness - uncertainty is not something us humans enjoy, and we are firmly in 'no one knows' territory.

New variants are not necessarily going to be a) more transmissible b) more lethal.

There have been new variants popping up all the time throughout the pandemic. We have great sequencing available here and in other countries.

Vaccines we have now will not suddenly become wholly redundant. It's a matter of percentages.

Vaccines will be rolled out across the world, slowly but surely.

Boosters seem to be readily manufacturable.

I'm so glad you just wrote that Tobee ... there are so many posts on here that assume this is about to (or could) mutate into some sort of zombie plague. It's a very worrying, novel virus. It changes (slightly) all the time and there are thousands of variants - and the vaccines have been effective against all of them.

Just out of curiosity, where is the science saying the 'vaccine' stops transmission, because I've not seen or even heard them talk about this. Just leaves me confused why they want everyone to have the jab. Surely just vaccinate the vulnerable and be done, no?