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Original poster

Will we still open up on 12th April?

26 replies

blackberries5 · 18/03/2021 07:17

I run my own business and the financial impact of the pandemic has been absolutely devastating. I’m completely banking on the fact that we’ll be reopening to a large extent on 12th April. With this latest news about delays to the roll-out, do you think we will still open up on that date or will it be pushed back? I’m at rock bottom and don’t think I can take another blow.

OP posts:

ChameleonClara · 18/03/2021 07:21

Given Johnson's recklessness I don't think he'll let anything delay him!

I'm sorry about your business, my DH works in a badly affected industry so do understand. But opening too early is risky, and we are, as always, opening just a little too early.

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 18/03/2021 07:22

I’m not sure.

Many of the age groups that now have to wait are likely to be parents and have children mixing freely in schools. I’ve seen several posts already be bubbles popping in the first week and more this week.

I’m expecting a delay but they won’t know the true impact of the school mixing yet.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 18/03/2021 07:23

Yes

Ilikewinter · 18/03/2021 07:24

I think we will still open up, the plan was for over 50s to be vaccinated by mid April and they are on track for that, plus a lot of 2nd vaccines will be happening soon.

Doomsdayiscoming · 18/03/2021 07:24

Data not dates. Except they used a timetable and gave no indication of thresholds.

But if they went with the data, there is no reason not to open up.

By April 12th we will have similar hospital levels to July 4th last year, aka the big reopening. And we have come down from a bigger peak (22000 spring 2020, 39000 Winter 2021) of people in hospital, so you could argue that we will be doing even better than last July by April.

changingnames786 · 18/03/2021 07:25

It won't be delayed in my opinion, we are still on track and meeting all the original deadlines, we were ahead of schedule, now we are just back on it.

Pastanred · 18/03/2021 07:29

it wont be delayed - when 90% of hospitalisations and deaths are in groups 1-9 there's no justification for it

it would put the annual case rate as lower than flu which we dont close for

Hardbackwriter · 18/03/2021 07:31

@ChameleonClara

Given Johnson's recklessness I don't think he'll let anything delay him!

I'm sorry about your business, my DH works in a badly affected industry so do understand. But opening too early is risky, and we are, as always, opening just a little too early.

Why do you think it's too early? What's your threshold for it not being too early? The data is all considerably further ahead of where it was predicted to be when the dates were first announced, so I'm not that sure what people want to wait for.

userxx · 18/03/2021 07:33

I've got everything crossed for the 12th, I've got clients banking on that date so let's hope it happens.

ChameleonClara · 18/03/2021 07:34

@Hardbackwriter

Let's not argue, it is so boring! My view is we are opening too early. Johnson does this every time. Your view is we are opening at the right time.

I can list a whole load of scientists who think we should wait a bit, you can rubbish it, we can argue...

My view is schools should have been gradual, and fully open after Easter. Extrapolate from that my preferred timetable. I think the modelled deaths from September are higher than I would like. It's all a political choice.

GreenBalaclava · 18/03/2021 07:37

No one can tell you for sure but I think it will go ahead. The vaccine roll out is ahead of schedule and vaccinating the under 50s is far less important (in terms of hospital admissions etc) than the over 50s (which is very much on track).

Hardbackwriter · 18/03/2021 07:38

Why did you post stating as a fact that we're opening too early if anyone politely asking why you think that or trying to discuss it further is 'arguing'? Do you not know what a discussion thread is?

Quartz2208 · 18/03/2021 07:38

Why would it - the roadmap clearly states

The Government aims for everyone who is 50 and over, or at risk, to have been offered a first dose of the vaccine by 15 April, and for everyone aged 18 and over to have been offered a first dose by 31 July.

which is what they are aiming for - the next month is basically getting all of that done.Yes there are deaths and hospitalisations in the under 50s but they are a much smaller percentage and personally (as an under 50) making sure they have the second jab and are fully protected is a priority

We are opening up in April in a better position than in July.

sassbott · 18/03/2021 07:39

I’m in my mid forties and didn’t bat an eyelid re the vaccines possibly being delayed for my age group. Why? The deaths and hospitalisations in my age group are not sky high.
They’re still on track to vaccinate the key groups (which do account for the bulk of deaths and hospitalisations). Deaths continue to drop and are predicted to be at july levels in another month.

So do I think we’ll reopen on the 12th? Yes.
If the data continues to trend the way it’s trending he won’t have a leg to stand on to delay any further.

ChameleonClara · 18/03/2021 07:40

@Hardbackwriter

Why did you post stating as a fact that we're opening too early if anyone politely asking why you think that or trying to discuss it further is 'arguing'? Do you not know what a discussion thread is?

I didn't state it as scientific fact, I stated an opinion.

Original poster

blackberries5 · 18/03/2021 07:42

Thanks everyone - feeling reassured after reading your replies!

OP posts:

ChameleonClara · 18/03/2021 07:42

Johnson's roadmap is his opinion too. It is just a choice. Different personalities as PM would have a different road map with the same data.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 18/03/2021 07:43

I think it's unknown yet. It's still too early to see the effect of school returns. People need to remember though the focus now is on hospital cases, NOT infection rates. If infection rates rise but hospitalizations don't rise as well, then we will likely open up as planned.

Racoonworld · 18/03/2021 07:44

I don’t think12th April will be delayed. The vaccine rollout hasn’t been delayed, we are still on track for the targets, it’s just we were ahead of schedule and now we are on schedule. 12th April reopening is largely outside things (apart from shops) so will probably still go ahead as planned.

WhentheDealGoesDown · 18/03/2021 07:46

I would have thought so, they seem to be on target for over 50s vaccination. I don't think that vaccinating healthy under 50s ever featured in the April 12th reopening

ChameleonClara · 18/03/2021 07:49

Also the timings will obscure the school return impact, by having 3 weeks in, then a holiday - the data will be inconclusive. If you had six weeks of school data a trend would be clearer. This is deliberate I assume.

bbn81 · 18/03/2021 08:14

Yes it was deliberate to get schools back before Easter so that the holidays would act as a short fire break to keep numbers down. Not sure they have done this to deliberately mislead the data!

Cloudyrainsham · 18/03/2021 08:23

I really hope so! Deaths and hospitalisations seem to be remaining low so fingers crossed it stays that way. Despite the mass testing in schools the case rate remains steady too. Our school only sends home close contacts not whole bubbles. The other senior school has two whole year groups out for 2 positive cases

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/03/2021 08:38

We look like we are back on the all vaccinated by July track. As the road map was written for that scenario and hospitalisationsand death rates look so much better, it seems we are following the plan.

Thewiseoneincognito · 18/03/2021 08:47

This is a true test of the impact schools have on the numbers.

The reopening last year happened as schools were still closed so the situation is very different now. I hope the April 12th goes ahead, we may find ourselves in a sticky situation in terms of keeping schools open at the cost of keeping pubs and restaurants closed.

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