What on earth is happening in Brazil??

[WindFlower92]

Over 2,000 deaths a day and no signs of letting up. Surely it has to have burnt itself out there by now? Healthy young people in ICU needing intubation. Why is it so different over there; is this their new strain? Are they vaccinating people? I just don't understand how the situation over there is still so bad, anyone able to tell me why it hasn't just burnt itself out yet?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/13/brazil-covid-coronavirus-deaths-cases-bolsonaro-lula?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1615654327

I should add I'm not trying to make anyone scared or worried, I'm just wondering on the science of why this is happening in Brazil and seemingly not anywhere else. What is different?

It would take a long time and massively high initial exposure to burn itself out I would imagine. To work it’s way through an entire population of 210,000,000 people?

It's been a year with consistently high death rates and hospital admissions rates though - did they even lock down at all?

You refer twice to the virus burning itself out, but that hasn't happened in any other country - the countries who have brought it under control have done so by using measures to prevent it spreading, not by letting it burn itself out.

They live in close proximity. Theres a lot of favelas. I think that's the name of the homes built very close together.

Brazil is only 24th in the world in terms of deaths per 100,000.

What I meant though @GreenBalaclava is that we haven't given it a chance to burn itself out through all the lockdowns (not that I'm unhappy about this!) and Brazil is a sort of example of what would have happened if we hadn't had any measures it seems. I'm surprised that in these conditions where the virus has free reign it's still around and causing so much devastation. Not sure of numbers but surely there must be lots of immunity over there now?

Oh really? I hadn't seen that statistic, is it just hospital numbers that are making it seem worse then?

I suppose this is what happens when there are no measures in place, plus it seems the young are more affected, which is what some scientists said could happen if covid is allowed to run unchecked. I know a local ITU unit locally had three patients in in their twenties, none with any underlying conditions and previously fit and healthy according to the consultant.
I think being too relaxed with this disease too soon is a risk, it certainly isn't like the flu.

It's really worrying and I would expect many new variants to come out which would scupper the vaccination program as it's allowed to travel in checked

One of my colleagues lives in Brazil.

He and his family have almost completely confined themselves to their home since last March.

He says there is very low compliance with any guidelines put in place and that enforcement is non existent.

They have a huge population. 2000 deaths per day is about equivalent to 600 deaths per day here, which we have had during points in the pandemic. The difference is that our government did try to do something about it when deaths were that high whereas Bolsonaro doesn't seem to be doing much at all.

The vaccination program has been slow to start which certainly doesn't help *graph from "our world in data"

So are people in general happy with how the government's handled it then? How they still not want to comply with any restrictions with what's happening? @rosesinmygarden Obviously worrying for your family and anyone who does want to stay safe

Your colleague's family that should say!

It won’t ‘burn itself out’ until almost everyone has had it and acquired immunity, so it basically can’t spread any more. Clearly not enough people have had it yet in Brazil - there is still plenty fuel for the fire in the form of people who are not immune. Or maybe new variants are reinfecting people who had already had the earlier version, I don’t know.

They have given a first dose of vaccine to less than 4% of the population. So, yes, they are vaccinating, but it’s going to be a long time before they have vaccinated enough people to have any impact.

The president of Brazil has minimised Covid all the way through and there has been little in the way of control measures. One could argue that as a poor country with many people living hand to mouth, they simply couldn’t afford lockdowns and such - there would be economic collapse, civil unrest, deaths from starvation etc. Perhaps Bolsonaro and his advisers thought that letting the virus have its way was less damaging overall, who knows.

The political leadership of Brazil have constantly rejected any form of restrictions and still do. If you knew that Bolsonaro and Trump had something of a buddy club, that would tell you a lot.

But you also have to understand that there are many things going on here.

There is exceptional poverty in Brazil - many people have no access to clean water, and no ability to isolate. People have to go to work - unless you are amongst the fortunate middle classes, the vast majority must go to work, and the poorest often have to travel significant distances using public transport to get to where they work.

Some areas, like Manaus, are still significant travel hubs for vast swathes of the area, and loggers etc., are constantly flowing in and out .Not just from other areas of Brazil, but from other parts of the world. And one has to bear in mind that a fair few of the workers in the Amazon are involved in illegal activities including illegal logging and land clearance. There is some evidence that some of those have been deliberately involved in infecting indigenous peoples - one tribe recently lost its last male (in a patrilineal society where the tribe ceases to exist if there are no men) to Covid.

And whilst there is a public healthcare system, in large parts of Brazil it is centred around smaller hospitals and clinics which have a restricted level of services mainly within mainstream practices - significant levels of ICU and specialised services have never been needed so they do not exist.

Brazil is not remotely like the UK.

There was a Times (I think) article last week about how the developing world are faring.
Take India and Brazil - both developing countries with extremes of rich and poor, countries that are surfing ahead in development, have crowded living quarters etc. However the death rate in India (or Philippines or wherever) is a fraction of that of Brazil.
The article pointed towards the much higher proportion of obese people in Brazil compared to Asian countries.
This is definitely a contributing factor in the UK, US and Western countries.

My brother lives there, there are virtually.no restrictions except.state schools closed and masks being worn outside.

No vaccines on the horizon either.

The president of Brazil has minimised Covid all the way through and there has been little in the way of control measures.
Lots of factors, but mainly this.

@WindFlower92

Oh really? I hadn't seen that statistic, is it just hospital numbers that are making it seem worse then?

I believe the UK is the worst in the world for deaths per 100k, far worse than Brazil. Their president is a covid Denier and hasn’t brought in many rules at all though regional governments have. I also imagine they’re well behind with vaccinating.

It’s awful but what was happening here in January was worse.

@GreenBalaclava

Brazil is only 24th in the world in terms of deaths per 100,000.

Yes. Per 100,000 the U.K. is worse than Brazil. But because of their larger population they look worse.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

It's weird but I look at Le Monde French paper fairly often and they seem petrified of the English strain but not as much of the Brazilian one.

I believe the UK is the worst in the world for deaths per 100k, far worse than Brazil.

According to Worldometer, Gibraltar of all places is worst for deaths/100k. The UK is 6th.

However... comparing the figures is not straightforward, due to wildly different testing and diagnosis levels, and what constitutes a case. I suspect we really won't know who fared better or worse til we look back in a year or two on excess death numbers.

On balance, any country with a large elderly population is likely to fare much worse, because of how this virus targets the elderly. Ironically, richer nations with advanced healthcare are likely to end up with the worst figures, because their populations are so much more vulnerable.

In terms of numbers, again Worldometre, the UK's death rate is 1841/million. Brazil's is 1298/million.

However, I rather suspect that the UK is 'capturing' most of it's Covid deaths on the death-certificate data, at least. Whereas there has long been an assumption that, due to inadequate levels of testing and people dying at home unable to access medical care, that Brazil has been significantly under-reporting it's case-numbers and deaths www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7446715/

I think all we can be certain of right now is that Brazil is in a very bad place, regardless of the numbers.

Thanks for the explanations everyone. That's very sad about the tribe @Moondust001, I hadn't even thought about it affecting tribes like that!