If you’re low risk why would you be offered a vaccine ?

[distanceIspower]

I’m just wondering - if 1 in 3 are asymptomatic and then most people have mild - moderate symptoms and only a v small percentage get really ill why is the plan now to vaccinate all adults ?

I thought it would be like the flu jab criteria - age, other conditions, being a carer etc

Is there a reason they are aiming to vaccinate all adults ?

In my late twenties, as a healthy, fit adult, I caught Flu. I had a two toddlers. Fortunately it was Christmas so DH could look after them.. as I was barely awake for several days. I got up to go to the toilet, that was it. The younger one was brought to me for breastfeeds. Even watching TV was a struggle.

Healthy adults can get ill too. If you've got children, caring responsibilities, a busy job you'll probably want to avoid that.

@distanceIspower

But I have read the vaccine doesn’t stop you getting covid just reduces severity and reduces hospitalisation so is the potential for long covid still there ?

This is non-scientific journalists misunderstanding scientists natural propensity to qualify everything we say. We don't have the evidence yet but the expectation is that the vaccines will stop you getting and transmitting the virus.

@bobbiester no I’m not trying to say not to I’m just trying to process various things I’ve read / heard as it didn’t make sense
But I think I’m having trouble separating this from other vaccination programmes which are all either across the board childhood vaccination or flu vaccine based on eligibility

[quote distanceIspower]@bobbiester no I’m not trying to say not to I’m just trying to process various things I’ve read / heard as it didn’t make sense
But I think I’m having trouble separating this from other vaccination programmes which are all either across the board childhood vaccination or flu vaccine based on eligibility[/quote]
Influenza vaccines aren't nearly as effective as the new COVID-19 vaccines seem to be.

That's one reason that rolling those out accross the popualtion isn't an attractive option.

@distanceIspower

But I have read the vaccine doesn’t stop you getting covid just reduces severity and reduces hospitalisation so is the potential for long covid still there ?

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n567

Thankyou for the links I’m going to read them all it’s really helpful

This is an across the board programme at the moment (like measles etc) we are just starting with those most at risk so older people and those with particular conditions.

Flu has been around for a long time and there is a level of natural immunity in the community. For this reason we can get away with targeting at risk groups for the flu vaccine. There is no natural immunity in the population against Covid (other than the people who have caught it in the last year) so widespread vaccination is required to reduce transmission significantly.

Once the entire population has been vaccinated it might be that we only need to revaccinate certain groups of at risk people in future years (like we do with flu) or it might be necessary to vaccinate everyone every year, it will depend on how things develop.

The bottom line is it is sensible to be vaccinated when you are offered the vaccine (regardless of whether you are high/low risk) to protect yourself and contribute to herd/community immunity.

I'm low risk in that I'm female, low bmi, not BAME, below 60, no underlying health issues.

But I'm a single mum. If I am hospitalised my ds would be alone. And my finances would be damaged by a bout of long covid. I cannot allow that to happen so I'll have the vaccine at the first opportunity. I'll take anything that limits covid's likely impact on me.

Why would I not?

@distanceIspower

I’m just wondering - if 1 in 3 are asymptomatic and then most people have mild - moderate symptoms and only a v small percentage get really ill why is the plan now to vaccinate all adults ?

I thought it would be like the flu jab criteria - age, other conditions, being a carer etc

Is there a reason they are aiming to vaccinate all adults ?

There are various reasons.

1. Long covid affects roughly 1 in 10 people no matter whether or not they show symptoms and it affects all age groups. As we don't know yet what causes it, nobody knows who is susceptible. And while long-covid hasn't yet killed anyone, a great many are suffering debilitating conditions - effects range from people who have to give up their careers due to fatigue or brain fog etc, to those who are struggling to eat because food now smells like raw sewage. We don't yet know how long some of these effects may last.

2. Covid-19 is approximately 1000x more serious than seasonal flu. Seasonal flu rarely kills anyone by itself - those who die are usually in a pretty bad state already and the impact of flu means bacterial pneumonia is allowed to set in. By contrast covid strikes down perfectly healthy people at a greater rate, never mind the damage it does among the vulnerable!

3. Vaccination gives only marginal protection to the vulnerable - for the over 80's the current data suggests 50-60% protection against death. If covid is allowed to spread like seasonal flu each year, then tens of thousands of those vaccinated will still die each year. A MUCH better way to protect them is to ensure they don't come into contact with the virus which means herd immunity like we have for things like measles and polio etc

Finally, where you have a disease spreading through a population in which a decent proportion is vaccinated, you create the perfect breeding ground for vaccine resistant mutations. In short, there's a reasonable chance that within a matter of months, that 50-60% protection could fall to 10-20%. A booster would take months to prepare, manufacturer and deliver by which time the damage would already be done - that's if a working booster can be made! Sometimes it's harder to make a viable booster than an initial vaccine due to the vagaries of our immune system. The way to protect against this is to
have minimal communal infections - only two ways of achieving that - restrictions like we have now, or mass vaccination.

[quote distanceIspower]@bobbiester no I’m not trying to say not to I’m just trying to process various things I’ve read / heard as it didn’t make sense
But I think I’m having trouble separating this from other vaccination programmes which are all either across the board childhood vaccination or flu vaccine based on eligibility[/quote]
Covid has a far higher death rate than flu (even very nasty flu variations). In an ideal world we would vaccinate everyone against flu, but there's a cost to vaccinating 70m every single year, and the benefit doesn't balance it out. So we vaccinate where the benefit will be felt the most - older people and super spready little people.

Anyone can get a flu vaccine if they pay. I think they cost about £12 normally, which isn't prohibitive for most people. I pay for one every year after being quite ill with flu a few years ago.

But someone has decided that the benefit of giving flu jabs to everyone for free doesn't outweigh the costs there would be in terms of HCP time, vaccination centres, the price of the jab, etc.

Covid is deadlier than flu, there may be more long term problems (long covid) from covid, and the covid vaccines are more effective than most flu vaccines.

So someone has decided that the benefit of giving it out for free does outweigh the costs mentioned above.

I should add that they currently believe that for the younger crowd it won't be an annual thing - that immunity should last a number of years.

I'm self-employed and almost all my self-employed/business owner friends pay to have a flu jab every year. Even an illness that doesn't kill you or put you into hospital is a problem if it means not being able to work and earn for 2-3 weeks if you get no sick pay!

With covid, letting it spread in the under 50s age groups would lead to more mutations too so it has population level benefits for sure.

This is an across the board programme at the moment (like measles etc) we are just starting with those most at risk so older people and those with particular conditions.

This is a good point too.

There are lots of things that we try to vaccinate the whole population against. Some are just a one off, and some have boosters. Everyone in the country is offered 5 doses of the tetanus vaccine (3 as a baby, 1 as a preschooler, 1 as a teenager).

Maybe one day we'll have a similar booster regime for covid vaccines. It's only because nobody had been vaccinated against covid before that we're trying to roll it out to the whole population this quickly.

Because you don't know in advance how it will affect you. You could be 80 and have mild symptoms, or a fit 40 year old and end up in hospital for weeks and needs to relearn how to walk.

If you think about it, we do routinely vaccinate people against things which present no risk to them personally. I am in my fifties, and got a rubella vaccination at school. It was only given to girls, on the basis that the disease itself is almost always mild, but presents a risk to unborn babies if the mother contracts it during pregnancy. They didn’t vaccinate boys, because they don’t get pregnant. Some years later, they started to vaccinate boys as well, because they recognise that that would reduce the amount of virus circulating, and further protect unborn children (because not all girls get vaccinated and it’s not 100% effective.)

AIUI there are three reasons to vaccinate younger people against Covid:-

1. Reduce the amount of virus in circulation = extra protection for those who don’t respond to vaccines/can’t be vaccinated.

2. Reduce the amount of virus in circulation = reduce the risk of new and potentially harmful variants

3. low risk is not no risk - younger people can still be very ill, get long Covid, or even die.

People who catch flu generally stay at home in bed. People can be asymptomatic with Covid so they can unknowingly spread it to the vulnerable.

Viruses have a chance of mutating each time it finds a new host. If people are vaccinated then fewer hosts. It doesn't stop people getting Covid but people getting it mildly is good for the NHS.

Op, I'm 45, classed as low risk by my Gp. I have 10 chronic conditions.

I'm standing here now after nearly a year with long covid. I'm a lone parent self employed. I need to work, but can only do 50% of what I could do pre covid.

Every adult needs a vaccine, even healthy ones. No one would want to be in my shoes.

Vaccination gives only marginal protection to the vulnerable - for the over 80's the current data suggests 50-60% protection against death.

I'm surprised by this, because it was in the news last week that the latest estimate was 80% reduction in risk of death in over 80s. What's the source for 50-60%?

I think you are comparing Covid to flu, and the Covid vaccine to the flu vaccine. It's not a fair comparison. So far Covid has shown to be much more infectious and much more serious. Even if Young, healthy people the are occasions of serious Covid cases and death.

Surely Covid has been around long enough for you to realise this. And surely you should be aware by now that the more people that are vaccinated, the more protection, and less cases/serious cases there will be.

In saying that, I do expect in years to come the Covid vaccine will become an annual thing, and may eventually target more vulnerable groups rather than the general population. That is just a guess. Hopefully vaccines, increased immunity and better therapeutics will help.

@Reallybadidea

Vaccination gives only marginal protection to the vulnerable - for the over 80's the current data suggests 50-60% protection against death.

I'm surprised by this, because it was in the news last week that the latest estimate was 80% reduction in risk of death in over 80s. What's the source for 50-60%?

www.gov.uk/government/news/first-real-world-uk-data-shows-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-provides-high-levels-of-protection-from-the-first-dose

From that link:

The risk of dying in those aged over 80 is less than half (56%) in vaccinated cases compared to unvaccinated cases, at least 14 days after receiving the first dose.

So if you are over 80 and catch covid your risk of dying is 56% less than in unvacvinated people who develop covid. However, also from that link, the risk of developing symptomatic covid is reduced by more than 80% in fully vaccinated over 80s.

So very much more than marginal protection.

Vaccination gives only marginal protection to the vulnerable - for the over 80's the current data suggests 50-60% protection against death

The early figures are showing the protection to be over 85% after the second dose. In Over 80's.

@Reallybadidea

From that link:

The risk of dying in those aged over 80 is less than half (56%) in vaccinated cases compared to unvaccinated cases, at least 14 days after receiving the first dose.

So if you are over 80 and catch covid your risk of dying is 56% less than in unvacvinated people who develop covid. However, also from that link, the risk of developing symptomatic covid is reduced by more than 80% in fully vaccinated over 80s.

So very much more than marginal protection.

Well I never said "marginal", but yes, you're correct, thank you for the correction.

That's good news, but it doesn't change the basic argument - vaccines are only one part of the protection and without something else, either social isolation (e.g. lockdown) or herd immunity, many are still going to die.

We want to end lockdowns, so let's seize the opportunity we have to make everyone safe.

"Low risk" is not no risk. People of any age can be and have been killed and seriously sickened by Covid-19. It's about 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu.