Yet another government ballsup

[notrub]

www.bbc.com/news/health-56321537

This makes absolutely NO sense.

LF tests have 1-3 false positives per 1000 (everyone agrees).
There's ~9 million kids in UK schools. If half have these 3 tests - that's 13.5 million tests, so we can expect at least 13,500 false positives - potentially MORE than actual positives!

Why on earth would you NOT want these double checked?? As it stands that's a LOT of families who are going to have to self-isolate for no reason, and a LOT of kids (if you include the bubbles) who are going to miss school unecessarily.

The ONLY reason I can think of is that if these false positives are demonstrated as such by PCR testing, the government are concerned about newspaper headlines saying LF tests don't work.... In short, it's once again politics ahead of the best interests of the country.

Absolutely insane. I am considering withdrawing consent for school testing and testing at home instead where a negative PCR test would overrule. It’s completely illogical.

PCR false positive are about the same percentage.

What's your solution.
No testing?

False negatives are the issue. LFT have a greater false negative than PCR. You are worrying about the wrong issue.

@BigWoollyJumpers I am concerned about this. There is no way DS could be positive. There have been no cases round here for a couple of weeks. We haven’t seen anyone inside or for a long time and anyone we do see outside WFH etc. No one has been in shops. If he has a false positive from the school test, we will all have to isolate for 10 days which would be ridiculous. And would cost us probably £150-200 for a dog walker. If I had known this, I certainly would not have taken him for tests ahead of starting school.

[quote EmmaGellerGreen]@BigWoollyJumpers I am concerned about this. There is no way DS could be positive. There have been no cases round here for a couple of weeks. We haven’t seen anyone inside or for a long time and anyone we do see outside WFH etc. No one has been in shops. If he has a false positive from the school test, we will all have to isolate for 10 days which would be ridiculous. And would cost us probably £150-200 for a dog walker. If I had known this, I certainly would not have taken him for tests ahead of starting school.[/quote]
I think you’d have to self isolate until you had confirmed with a positive PCR test. If the PCR came back negative then you’d be free of isolation...so dependant on how quick your results come back.

That's the point @Yellow85. Gavinson just announced that the rapid test cannot be overruled www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56321537

'It will mean a pupil who tests positive at home with a rapid on-the-spot test - known as a lateral flow test - will have to isolate on the basis of that test, but will be told to get a PCR test which is processed in a lab.

If that PCR test is negative they will be released from isolation.

But for those done in schools - pupils are being offered three tests in the next two weeks - it will be assumed the lateral flow test is right. A PCR test cannot overrule the lateral flow test.'

@Yellow85 no, that is exactly the point. There is no PCR to confirm, the LFT can not be over ridden.

I don't see it as a ballsup. It's not great, but it's not that bad. Millions of kids back at school is good enough for me.

Wow thats mad. Its a real ballsup as makinv kids isolate due to a false test.

(I didnt think there reallyw ere false positives with pcr - just it might be a low amount? I have been paranoid mine was and I wouldnt get the second vaccine because of it!)

Its pretty bad. A child falsely thinking they have covid, ll the isolation for the whole family and knock on effect with work etc when a pcr might confirm its negative!?

Have I read it correctly ...it's only for the first three tests and then we have to test at home-so a positive LFT is overridden by then having another test at a proper testing centre ?

I'm concerned about this. The whole household had Covid in January - possibly with the exception of ds2, although likelihood is he did but was asymptomatic. But as having to isolate anyway, he wasn't tested. They say that the LFT tests shouldn't be used if you've had Covid in the last 3 months, as they are likely to show positive from remnants of it. So every chance that he could show up as positive (although he's not been in contact with anyone but immediate family for the last 2 weeks) and force us all into isolation again / him to miss school as a result.

Yes PCR's also give false positives, at about the same rate.

But the chance of a false +ve LF ALSO giving a false +ve PCR is 1 in a million.

We haven't been testing millions of asymptomatic people with PCR's so we haven't had this issue before.

@123rd

Have I read it correctly ...it's only for the first three tests and then we have to test at home-so a positive LFT is overridden by then having another test at a proper testing centre ?

Yup makes the whole thing even more insane.

Why differentiate between the school given tests and the home given tests?

@LunarSea

I'm concerned about this. The whole household had Covid in January - possibly with the exception of ds2, although likelihood is he did but was asymptomatic. But as having to isolate anyway, he wasn't tested. They say that the LFT tests shouldn't be used if you've had Covid in the last 3 months, as they are likely to show positive from remnants of it. So every chance that he could show up as positive (although he's not been in contact with anyone but immediate family for the last 2 weeks) and force us all into isolation again / him to miss school as a result.

simple answer is to refuse consent for the tests in school.

it's 0.1% false positive rate and also it is only 3.4m children, not sure where the op got the 9m figure. Personally I do think it should be confirmed by pcr however I'd also be concerned about families not isolating until the pcr result shows positive.

"also it is only 3.4m children"

Official government figures.

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-pupils-and-their-characteristics

3.4m is the number of SECONDARY age children - but the LF program includes ALL schools.

Primary kids aren’t having LF tests.

Pippa Crear thinks they’ve Uturned mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1368917883225579525

The LF program does not include all schools; it does not include primaries.

The chances of a false positive LFT are minute. PHE have data on this. Sorry I can't link - was on Andrew Marr yesterday.

Oh, no they haven’t 🤦‍♀️🤷‍♀️

My niece has only ever tested positive with the LF tests, despite never testing positive in the proper tests. She's never had any covid symptoms and only lives with her mum who has also never had symptoms and tests negative on every one of her very regular tests.

@joan12

The LF program does not include all schools; it does not include primaries.

The chances of a false positive LFT are minute. PHE have data on this. Sorry I can't link - was on Andrew Marr yesterday.

Andrew Marr simply reports what Government ministers tell him - there's never any challenge even when they come out with total horseshit.

The rate is KNOWN to be between 0.1 and 0.3%. PHE's put it at 0.3%, but other studies have put it lower.

This IS low, but the sheer numbers of tests make it quite a big problem if you're capable of doing basic mathematics that is.

My bad on the primary schools - I saw the program included them, but only for staff, not kids. Still means between 5000 and 15, 000 false +ves if 50% of pupils take them.

[quote SinusOhSinus]Pippa Crear thinks they’ve Uturned mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1368917883225579525[/quote]
Is it a U-Turn, or is Boris forgetting what he's been told to say again?

Nice that they got all this sorted out in advance isn't it...

@Oblomov21

I don't see it as a ballsup. It's not great, but it's not that bad. Millions of kids back at school is good enough for me.

It's not the fact that it's 'not that bad' in and of itself, it's the fact that it is both totally avoidable (by simply having a PCR test to confirm it) and it will doubtless discourage parents from allowing their kids to be tested at school.

It makes no sense not to perform a PCR test to confirm the result.

It was apparently a "clarification" not a U -Turn.

But government now confirms that a positive lateral flow test will be "cancelled" by a subsequent PCR test.