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Has the virus peaked across the world?

27 replies

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:11

The cases seem to be dropping in most countries - even the ones which haven’t got the vaccination program underway. Does this mean the virus has peaked across the world? In that there are enough people in the general population who now have antibodies?
If a virus mutates enough times is there not also a chance for it to become weaker in the long run? I understand it can go the other way however coronavirus seems like a virus which doesn’t necessarily want to kill its host unlike Ebola so is there a possibility this will become a dominant strain on flu going forward?
Lastly it does look like it’s mimicking the seasonal flu..granted we are in lockdown and the opening of school might change that.

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LindaEllen · 06/03/2021 23:15

I think we need more info first, not least about how long the vaccine protection lasts, and how well it protects against strains (including those we haven't seen yet).

But things are certainly looking promising so far.

For the UK we need to see how schools/lockdown relaxations impact transmission. But as I say, I'm tentatively optimistic.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 06/03/2021 23:16

I thought I'd read that global cases had started to go up again recently having been falling, but I could be wrong.

miserablecat · 06/03/2021 23:17

I thought I read last week that cases were rising in eastern Europe

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:19

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-cases-falling-globally-big-question/amp/
This article was what prompted my thread

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AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:19

@miserablecat could you link where you read about cases increasing?

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Dtoilel · 06/03/2021 23:21

The virus isn't intelligent. It's simply a virus. Mutations which survive longer will become more prevalent. It's not as if the virus wakes up and says I'm going to mutate today. It's accidental mutation. Evolution. It's entirely unpredictable.

PuzzledObserver · 06/03/2021 23:23

Does this mean the virus has peaked across the world? In that there are enough people in the general population who now have antibodies?

If everybody everywhere was living life as normal, mixing, travelling etc, then it might mean that. But as long as there are masks and travel restrictions and 2m distancing to any great extent, then no. The virus is merely being suppressed to varying degrees.

If a virus mutates enough times is there not also a chance for it to become weaker in the long run? I understand it can go the other way however coronavirus seems like a virus which doesn’t necessarily want to kill its host unlike Ebola

There is a chance it could mutate to become weaker, but that will only happen if it confers an advantage to the virus. With Covid, because it can spread well before the host becomes ill, there is no particular advantage to it in becoming weaker. Viruses don’t actually ‘want’ anything, they are not sentient. They mutate as a matter of course, and any mutation which enables it to spread faster/wider will be selected for and become more frequent.

Is there a possibility this could become a dominant strain of flu going forward?

No, because it isn’t flu. Theoretically it could outcompete flu and become more prevalent than it. For instance, there has been very little flu this year, because the measures which have been somewhat effective against Covid have been highly effective against flu. I suppose it’s possible that if we keep it up for long enough then flu could become extinct, but it seems unlikely. More likely once Covid vaccination is sufficiently widespread that we all start mixing again, flu will stage a comeback.

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:26

Thanks @PuzzledObserver that’s helpful

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AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:26

So in other words no
Light at the end of the tunnel?Confused

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HarveySchlumpfenburger · 06/03/2021 23:27

Interesting. That Telegraph article is dated the same day virtually everywhere else started reporting that cases were beginning to rise again.

Here's the DM from the same date
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9298215/U-S-COVID-19-new-daily-cases-rise-slightly-73-000-deaths-increase-2-447.html

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 06/03/2021 23:31

Yes - the media isn’t helping as each has their own agenda

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miserablecat · 06/03/2021 23:43

I read on the BBc website but can't find the article

Porcupineintherough · 06/03/2021 23:51

Of course there is light at the end of the tunnel - through vaccination.

NetballHoop · 06/03/2021 23:51

I suspect that as we head into spring, the Southern hemisphere will start to see numbers rise again. Worldwide priorities should be on vaccinating there.

User77325678 · 07/03/2021 06:48

I live abroad and our numbers decreased when shops, bars and restaurants were closed along with minimal household mixing. Schools have remained open (they closed mid-March to end-May last year) and numbers still dropped.

Our numbers remained very low during the summer months - I think there is a seasonal impact (ie more people indoors when it’s colder weather) - and then we had a peak in October, measures got stricter, they dropped.

We’ve just had two weeks of early spring sunshine and measures have just been relaxed a bit (shops open) with more gradual relaxing in April. Our vaccine programme has received big criticism as it’s been very slow.

I don’t know what to conclude based on this, but schools being open and a relatively weak vaccine programme does not appear to have seen numbers rise. It will be interesting to see the impact of a better vaccination rates + schools reopening in the UK.

Insertfunnyname · 07/03/2021 06:54

Just google “worldwide covid cases” for the figures (attached image)

Has the virus peaked across the world?
PuzzledObserver · 07/03/2021 08:13

Plenty of light at the end of the tunnel - mass vaccination.

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 07/03/2021 11:35

So it is going down isn’t it?

Has the virus peaked across the world?
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lightand · 07/03/2021 11:48

There are less countries in the Southern Hemisphere which might make a difference. The North is coming out of winter while the South is now going into theirs.
So a strange time of year too.

HSHorror · 07/03/2021 11:59

Uk schools will have more effect than other countries would.
Still no masks in primary.
No SD in either.
Bubbles of 30- .....
Sending in still with runny nose etc

AnxietyDrivingMyLife · 07/03/2021 12:46

I thought you are not supposed to send in with a runny nose?

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notrub · 07/03/2021 13:27

[quote RafaIsTheKingOfClay]Interesting. That Telegraph article is dated the same day virtually everywhere else started reporting that cases were beginning to rise again.

Here's the DM from the same date
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9298215/U-S-COVID-19-new-daily-cases-rise-slightly-73-000-deaths-increase-2-447.html[/quote]
Seriously if you are reading science articles in the Telegraph and the DM EXPECT to be totally misinformed!

None of the UK's papers handle science well - perhaps the best is the FT. The Telegraph is definitely the worst though.

The vast majority of testing for covid takes place in Europe and the USA. This means that the prevalence here disproportionally affects global numbers. By contrast, if there is a huge surge in Brazil or Russia, it's barely recorded ...

In Europe/USA case levels will reflect WHERE the country is in the lockdown/reopen cycle. The UK is coming to the end of a lockdown period, so numbers are low and falling. Eastern Europe is well into a reopening period, hence numbers rising. Without a total suppression strategy such as Asian nations and Oz/NZ have, this pattern will continue ad infinitum.

notrub · 07/03/2021 13:44

@Porcupineintherough

Of course there is light at the end of the tunnel - through vaccination.
Vaccination is just one tool for fixing this. It won't work if we take a flu-like strategy with it, i.e. view it as a means for protecting only those who take it.

If this is our end-game, then life expectancy in the UK will be substantially lower. Treatments that suppress immune systems (e.g. chemo) will be significantly more risky, and health issues such as diabetes and asthma, much more problematic. Retirees will mostly be getting their annual vaccine and hoping that they're in the protected % this year and not part of the 10-20% for whom vaccines fail.

On the other hand, mass vaccination, particularly of kids, could make covid-19 as rare as measles.

It all depends on how high the uptake is of vaccines in the younger age groups - if the anti-vaxxers win out here, that tunnel will go on and on and on.

User77325678 · 07/03/2021 18:03

@HSHorror

Uk schools will have more effect than other countries would. Still no masks in primary. No SD in either. Bubbles of 30- ..... Sending in still with runny nose etc
This is what it’s been like here. Masks for secondary only. SD doesn’t happen in practice. Only if there are 2 confirmed positive cases in one class within 5 days of each other is there a review. The review can mean that the rest of the class is tested, or it may not.

Personally I think what has made a difference has been masks (everyone wears one, it’s reinforced and exemptions are hard to get), closing of shops and restaurants and indoor leisure, and limits on household mixing.

The numbers dropped quickly when all that was put in place.

I agree that the uk govt have made a complete hash of things but the public are not helping.

I think it’s ok to keep schools open if everyone respects the rest of the rules. Which they won’t in the UK.

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