This is only another opinion, but I would say that while this isn’t over, the worst is probably behind us now. I believe it will get better starting right now, and probably continue to get better over the course of the next 3-6-12 months.
We may well have a third wave in the number of cases, probably between autumn 2021 and winter 2021/2022, but it won’t be nearly as bad as the second wave from which we are now emerging in the UK: it will bring far fewer hospitalisations and deaths thanks to vaccination. That also means that while some social distancing restrictions might need reintroduction, there is a very good chance we will avoid having another lockdown with full school closures, because the NHS will no longer be more overwhelmed that normal by COVID19, although other pent-up demand for care will prove challenging to meet.
Vaccines will be less effective in preventing some degree of illness in people exposed to certain variants, but they will significantly lower the risk of hospitalisation, even after a single dose (which I have had), provided that individuals understand it takes at least 3 weeks to build any immunity after the first dose. They will probably reduce but not eliminate the risk of onward transmission by infected, vaccinated individuals. Modified vaccines will come out to address variants, and we will see third doses being administered during the autumn 2021 or during early 2022. There will be occasional headlines about side effects from vaccines, and lots of people will have a couple of rough days post-vaccine, but on the whole it will be a lot more comfortable and safe to get vaccinated than to remain unvaccinated. Those most at risk will be people who believed the scaremongering and turned down the vaccine.
Hopefully social norms will change so that a person with «a little sniffle» will feel the pressure to stay home instead of going to work or school or to that party, and then making several other people get sick.
I am no doctor or scientist, but I am an expert in the synthesis and evaluation of unstructured and conflicting data from multiple sources, and so far I have been mostly right in predicting how this would play out. Due to being clinically vulnerable (Group 6), so the stakes for me personally are also pretty high: in taking any risk of exposure, I am quite literally betting my life and health on being right about which risks are reasonable to take.
Incidentally I have also validated my analysis and my plans with a top respiratory consultant in the UK, and they were judged entirely reasonable and prudent. So it would seem that not all respiratory consultants subscribe to the same «inside information».
For the time being, I think that most of the planned loosening of restrictions in the UK is actually quite reasonable, and I plan to do most of the things that are permitted, when they become permitted, but not earlier. Every week of patience gives the case numbers time to fall, and allows for more people to get their vaccines and for those recently vaccinated to build their immunity. The only difference is that where some people seem to follow the rules in a pretty halfhearted manner, I plan to follow them rather strictly.
Key messages:
- stick to the prevailing rules, even where it’s uncomfortable or inconvenient or awkward, and
- get the vaccine when offered unless there is a genuine medical reason not to
If enough of us do this, then I am convinced that things will get a lot better, very soon, and we will see the back of these difficult times.