If someone said to you last March...

[Wowcherarestalkingme]

That this would go on for another 16 months would you have believed them? Did you think a year ago that schools would still be closed, businesses going under left and right and still having to wear face masks all the time?
Do you think it would have affected your behaviour in the first lock down?
I was just thinking today that it’s coming up to a year when lockdown was first announced and I truly believed at the time it would all have blown over by Christmas. Never did I think we would still be where we are a year on. And thank goodness for the vaccine!! Just interested in peoples thoughts on how they felt a year ago to now really

I think there was a moment that it hit me how serious and close to home it was and that was when I needed nappies so popped to Tesco. I had seen on the news that people were panic buying and supermarkets were empty but I had assumed it was in highly populated areas. When I saw all the empty shelves I realised this was going to have a massive affect on all of us. Until that moment, it wasn’t that I wasn’t taking it seriously, I think I just thought of it as something that wouldn’t really touch us in a day to day way or that the media were whipping everyone up. I was in a bit of a sheltered place when it all started though to be honest as I was on mat leave and my baby was prem so we had been limiting visiting people and going out due to (general) infection rates. If someone had said we would still have strict restrictions in place a year on, like others have said, I would have found that quite hard to deal with. Not being able to predict this helped in some way, for me at least

Plus none of my neighbours have sang together at any point, so even if I wanted to (I don’t) it would be weird to knock on their doors and ask them to sing.
I chat to them on the doorstep of course, they’re all lovely people. We just don’t sing together.

They are definitely predicting another wave in late summer/autumn. I'm not clear why.

I was telling NHS colleagues in February 20 that I was concerned. I wanted to defer going to a conference and emailed the organizers to say it should go online. And so on. No one else really seemed to be taking it very seriously at that point.

I remember walking down the street in early March wearing disposable masks we had got on a recent holiday to Vietnam. Some girls in a car went by pointing and laughing. I wonder from time to time if they remember that.

Wore a mask at work pre-lockdown. In my mind I think my brain has tricked me into thinking that everyone starting wearing masks when lockdown started, I forget it took months before they were mandatory.

We decided to move back in with my parents for 6ish months from late September. We gave our notice to our landlord end of July. As we felt aggrieved paying rent in a city where we couldn’t do anything. Our thinking being that it was clear the vaccine programme (even if it was approved within weeks) had missed its window of opportunity and at least one lockdown would happen before the spring. And that winter was going to be much worse than the spring. We signed a new lease three weeks ago to move in April 1st. Pity the govt doesn’t share my optimism.

My current prediction being they will bring the 17th May step forward by 1-2 weeks. And potentially the April one too. Schools will increase cases due to increase testing and perhaps some increased transmission, but hospitalisations will continue to be crushed.

Overall I wouldn’t say I could predict a year in advance but my predictions for 6 months ahead have always been correct.

Yes i thought it would be 12-18 months. I remember hearing the vaccine would take 9-12 months probably and then there would be the roll out. I remember saying on a thread that I thought we’d have a second wave Nov - Feb and schools would be facing disruption for at least a year (to which I was told I was being ridiculous). That’s how it’s played out pretty much.

@MrBullinaChinaShop

I find the idea of singing with my neighbours depressing. We’re all different 🤷🏻‍♀️. I’m not ‘cool’ at all. I hate interacting with people over screens and I find the idea of singing with my neighbours excruciating. My way of coping is to keep my head down and grit my teeth. Yours is to sing with neighbours, clap on your doorstep and have zoom quizzes. Doesn’t make you right and me wrong.

Agree. It was just a bit rude to say you are glad that’s not your reality. It sounds like you’ve struggled during this time and it makes me sad that you don’t find any comfort in the fellowship of neighbours but I never would have actually told you that if you hadn’t said it first.

@Cookerhood

They are definitely predicting another wave in late summer/autumn. I'm not clear why.

Because we have high cases before unlocking, the cases will rise, people will catch it and will become sick.

Covid is nothing like flu, but the government is asking you to think of it like flu - and one of the features of flu is people catch it and die despite being vaccinated.

The covid vaccine is a lot more effective than the flu vaccine. Sadly covid is a lot more deadly flu. We have something like 15,000+ flu deaths each year, there will be a lot more covid deaths than that this winter - which is why they are predicting the next wave.

The government has chosen these deaths this winter.

@Cookerhood

They are definitely predicting another wave in late summer/autumn. I'm not clear why.

Is this true? Where have you seen this? I hope not.

These threads always bring about an air of superiority amongst those who knew. Sorry that I didn't, then again if I had I don't think I could have coped. I was plagued by suicidal thoughts in 2020 at times, I even did a pro and con list of pills or slitting the wrists. The only way I could cope was by believing that it would come to an end. That is just the way I deal with things rather than expecting the worst.

@kikomiko

SAGE have modelled rising deaths from September as a result of the scale/pace of unlocking this summer.

If we unlocked faster - we would get more deaths.
If we unlocked slower - we would get fewer deaths.

@OrangeBananaFish

These threads always bring about an air of superiority amongst those who knew. Sorry that I didn't, then again if I had I don't think I could have coped. I was plagued by suicidal thoughts in 2020 at times, I even did a pro and con list of pills or slitting the wrists. The only way I could cope was by believing that it would come to an end. That is just the way I deal with things rather than expecting the worst.

Tbf in the very early threads very few posters knew. Interesting to look back

A year ago I thought it’d be over by Christmas 2020.🙁

It's quite widely reported, although I think the models are quite flawed (according to Twitter! ). I'll see if I can find something.

Tbf in the very early threads very few posters knew. Interesting to look back While you are probably right, but every thread asking who knew there are always more saying they did know and how those that didn't needed their head read or something (as shown at the start of this thread). Sorry it just makes me feel like I was stupid. Looking back it really was the only way I could cope.

I remember listening to an expert saying life from now on would be classified as Pre pandemic & Pist pandemic. I thought he was being a drama queen ..

@ChameleonClara

sorry, but 15,000 deaths with a fully active economy is peanuts. Or is that 15,000 with lockdowns?

Either way, unless some variant that completely evades the vaccine/current acquired immunity, I doubt it’ll be that high.

The govt chose deaths this winter, because people couldn’t handle not having Christmas. But inadvertently they infected millions of people, and the dividend of that, along with the vaccination programme, was an accelerated end to this wave.

Post pandemic!

[quote ChameleonClara]@kikomiko

SAGE have modelled rising deaths from September as a result of the scale/pace of unlocking this summer.

If we unlocked faster - we would get more deaths.
If we unlocked slower - we would get fewer deaths.[/quote]
Modelled based on what?

How can you model transmission post vaccine?

@Cookerhood

They are definitely predicting another wave in late summer/autumn. I'm not clear why.

I am not sure either. But there are various issues.

Not absolutely everyone from vulnerable groups is getting vaccinated.

Some residual risk remains even after vaccination, especially for vulnerable individuals. We are still amassing data on this, there are various figures emerging.

At some point, we may see the benefit of vaccination wear off a bit possibly, we will still be getting data on that too as the months go by.

New variants are likely to emerge, it isn't clear how much of a problem that will be. We are however hearing of tweaked vaccines for the autumn and that would be to avoid another wave.

The autumn and winter are generally times when respiratory viruses are more of a problem.

If people mix in big crowds over the summer there might I suppose be some spread from that, less so if outdoors hopefully.

I can also imagine that some intrepid souls might make it overseas and come back with some souvenirs.

Wouldn't it be great though if none of this happens and it all just floats away?

@OrangeBananaFish

Tbf in the very early threads very few posters knew. Interesting to look back While you are probably right, but every thread asking who knew there are always more saying they did know and how those that didn't needed their head read or something (as shown at the start of this thread). Sorry it just makes me feel like I was stupid. Looking back it really was the only way I could cope.

I think it’s easier to be certain with hindsight and these threads attract a higher proportion of people stating they knew. Definitely far higher than predictions at beginning.

When lockdowns were being suggested I had a conversation with my friend about where will it end....What happens when lockdown stops, don't we just spread it around again?

I had high hopes for test and trace keepng a lid on it and expected local lockdowns to be very local and short lived. Not keep entire cities locked down for a full year.

I struggled in lockdown one because I was grieving for the coming year and onwards. I didn't think it would be just 3 weeks to flatten the curve and I didn't have the energy or will to throw myself into banana bread, home educating the kids or redecorating the house. I think those who expected it to be just three weeks fared better in the early days.

I was concerned as the numbers declined and still we had mega restrictions that we were losing the benefit of seasonality and would be loosening them in time for a seasonal resurgence.

I can see that now in our area we are down to the levels were had last June and yet it's going to be another month before we'll be able to even meet up in more than pairs outdoors.

This will have been the longest of the three lockdowns for England, other than for those areas that were never really released in the first place.

I’ve just checked my diary from last year. Things were starting to get a bit panicky so on today last year I ordered a repeat prescription for DD emolument. On tomorrow last year I have GP appointment to get a perception for heartburn medication (I was heavily pregnant with bad heartburn). I remember sitting in the waiting room in the GP surgery like normal.

If you would have told me this time last year that there would have been a lockdown and none of my family would have been seen my 10 month old baby yet I would have thought you were mad!

I thought lockdown would be a lot stricter with police standing outside out front doors. I completely panicked when I heard Boris' announcement - the bit about no Christenings really freaked me out (that will be the Catholic bit of me) so I got in the car and drove to the other end of the country to bring DS1 back from uni. We literally loaded the car up and drove back again. I was terrified of being stopped from going on the motorway by the police. DH thought I was being ridiculous and pontes out we don't have enough police to put patrols on every motorway junction.

I thought schools would be back two weeks after Easter, we'd all get ill at some point and life would more or less carry on, but with distortions to services such as rubbish collections due to the high level of people of ill.

I guess we've had a long drawn out version of what I expected. For some it's been less painful as I thought it would be, (we haven't been actually locked in our houses) but many businesses have suffered.