Texas USA is removing all restrictions

[Blueberries0112]

On March 10th, Texas is removing all restrictions and I hope it doesn’t get out of control, they do expect people to used some common sense, but this is not good news because it cause schools and jobs to be forced close contact with each other. (Like sharing school desks to fit students in one classroom)

Well I would argue it’s a pretty useful comparison. Especially given Florida’s older population. They should have fared much worse...

It adds weight to the argument definitely.

@Delatron

Well I would argue it’s a pretty useful comparison. Especially given Florida’s older population. They should have fared much worse...

It adds weight to the argument definitely.

@Delatron, as I said in my last couple of replies,

The California versus Florida comparison really doesn't allow you to say lockdown restrictions aren't effective at reducing deaths. The populations are not comparable and there's many unmeasured factors at play- ethnicity, SES, healthcare provisions, population density just to name a few.

This is cherry-picking a restrictive state that’s done worse than other restrictive states, and choosing a permissive state that’s fared better than other permissive states to try and prove a point.This comparison isn’t accidental, it's a deliberate choice of outliers that favor a point of view.

For example, you're ignoring Vermont and Hawaii, which have some of the lowest per capita case rates in the US (2,341 and 1,912 per 100,000, respectively) and among the most restrictive policies.

Equally this doesn't prove that heavy restrictions are better than light restrictions, it's just to highlight the point that we don't have a deep enough of an understanding at this point in time.

We may not have the information to do the correct comparison yet but it doesn’t mean we should ignore the stats and not do the analysis.

Take California out of the equation then. Florida has not been in lockdown since last July. They had a bad summer then things have been improving since then. Despite their elderly population. You know the most serious indicator for Covid. Over race, social economic status etc. We all know that age is the biggest predictor for serious outcomes.

@Delatron

We may not have the information to do the correct comparison yet but it doesn’t mean we should ignore the stats and not do the analysis.

Take California out of the equation then. Florida has not been in lockdown since last July. They had a bad summer then things have been improving since then. Despite their elderly population. You know the most serious indicator for Covid. Over race, social economic status etc. We all know that age is the biggest predictor for serious outcomes.

@Delatron I feel like you're deliberately missing my point. You're not "doing an analysis", you're comparing raw figures between two states that prove your point.

As I have repeatedly said, it will be so important to actually analyse this data - this means using robust epidemiological methods which attempt to control for differences between populations, and looking at all states. What you absolutely cannot do is draw causal inferences from raw figures like that.

Yes age is certainly an important confounder, but it isn't the only one, and you don't have the actual data/relevant training which would allow you to identify how much of an impact it had in this specific scenario versus other factors which will have played a role.

In contrast, epidemiologists are currently working on this exact question using decent methods, and findings will hopefully provide more of an insight.

They're doing well with jabs. Good for them.

I think half of Mumsnet want the world to be locked down for ever.

the oldies may be able to stay inside as they do not have to work,
they may be richer and live in more spaced out areas, they may have better health care, they may be able to affford to have shopping delivered... there are lots of reaasons why it might not have been as bad as it could have been. until someone has actually looked into that properly, then you can't draw any conclusions. I don't know anything about either florida or calafornia in the way of population and living conditions. there are just so many things that it could be.

and yes, it needs studying. it would be bloody awesome if we did not need to lockdown.

In all of these comparisons, very little is evidenced re personal choice. Ie, wearing masks, less time inside and so on, and that may never be truly known.

All very interesting.

I’ll await the experienced epidemiologists insight then. In a few years most likely when it will probably be too late. Thankfully this comparison is being discussed in the media and the science community. Many articles about it. I guess they think it’s worth discussing and analysing right now.

Very short sighted just to dismiss these comparisons. Of course we don’t have all the data yet. It still needs to be discussed and analysed rather than dismissed.

I think the issue here is people can’t actually accept the fact that certain states have done ok with no lockdown. Kids at school, businesses open, life goes on. There must be some anomaly that we’ll find out about in years to come.

Because we can’t accept a year of continued lockdowns may have had the same impact on deaths as loser restrictions.

Looser

So? Their business. Wish them luck. Life needs to go on.

@Literallynoidea

They're doing well with jabs. Good for them.

I think half of Mumsnet want the world to be locked down for ever.

Yep, and half of the UK.

@Delatron

I’ll await the experienced epidemiologists insight then. In a few years most likely when it will probably be too late. Thankfully this comparison is being discussed in the media and the science community. Many articles about it. I guess they think it’s worth discussing and analysing right now.

Very short sighted just to dismiss these comparisons. Of course we don’t have all the data yet. It still needs to be discussed and analysed rather than dismissed.

Plenty of scientists and epidemiologists have made the exact points that I have on twitter and in the media. Please point me to any respected member of the "scientific community" who has stated that the florida versus cali figures can be used to make causal inferences regarding lockdown and mortality.

And nope of course it won't be years before findings are published. Indeed my colleagues should shortly be submitting a preprint on this, and there's actually a wealth of literature out there if you decided to look for it.

I have to admit I'm chuckling a little a the "short sighted" comment, I've explained a fair few times why this is the exact opposite.

When my cabin crew friends go to California there isn’t much evidence of serious attention to lockdown. They all seem to be wandering round and shopping as normal.

There doesn’t seem to be much agreement within the scientific community on many of these topics @oldegg123

I personally find it fascinating that Florida has been open since July, kids have been at school and businesses thriving.

California has been in and out of lockdown. Kids homeschooled since the beginning. Huge spikes every time they come out of lockdown.

It’s interesting and nobody has the answers yet. But state leaders probably are looking at these examples in real time and making balanced judgements about opening up a year down the line once vaccinations are under way.

Looking forward to all the analysis from the scientists in the future....(when the pandemic is over).

I work with many Americans, in a wide variety of States. Although every State has their own rules and restrictions, the main trend is that most people are working from home (mandated in our Company - nobody has returned to the office in a year), they are staying at home (minimising social contact), and they are not travelling.

In short, they are essentially adhering to lockdown restrictions. They also have far less access to testing and vaccinations than we do.

It could be something to do with the population densities of different states?

Also, if you look at detailed maps, there are different covid variants in different states. IIRC California has some type of mutation which is a cross between the Kent variant and a California variant. It's highly infectious and thought now to be responsible for 90% of infections in California.

@SellFridges There is testing available to anyone who wants it and vaccines are currently available to 65+ moving to 55+ in April. Now that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been approved the Biden Administration is estimating all US adults will have access to a vaccine (either Pfizer, Moderna or J and J) by early June at the latest.

Healthcare is very expensive in the US but that means we have plenty of capacity and no NHS to "save" at extraordinary human cost. Where I live we were locked down for a grand total of 3 weeks and have been up and running at near normal since early last May. We are encouraged but not required to wear masks. My county has about 60,000 people and we have lost a grand total of 96 to covid since the epidemic began, the vast majority over 90 years old.

I think the question of whether lockdowns work is legitimate, because I don't see where the immense human suffering in the UK has been worth "saving" an underfunded single payer health system.

Europeans wonder why the US has rejected a single payer health system every time it's been proposed. Most Americans don't wonder. Yes, our healthcare is expensive, but we get what we pay for.

My husband has been working at home for over a year. I have been working at a fast food restaurant that do take indoor seating.

I everyday I see kids on soccer practice and playground without a mask. I am in Virginia USA ( Americans) I think people just gave up.

I haven’t lost anyone personally from COVID but my family in a small town lost a lot of people (mmm - but the town never liked government/science telling them how they should live their live so I wasn’t too surprised- saddened but not surprised.

@Delatron

We may not have the information to do the correct comparison yet but it doesn’t mean we should ignore the stats and not do the analysis.

Take California out of the equation then. Florida has not been in lockdown since last July. They had a bad summer then things have been improving since then. Despite their elderly population. You know the most serious indicator for Covid. Over race, social economic status etc. We all know that age is the biggest predictor for serious outcomes.

They are going to see a lot of this. I live in one of the Gulf states. We’ve been more or less closed, while Dubai has been pretty much open. We are all more or less on the same curve 😩

Makes you ask what the point of all this was

@BlackeyedSusan

and yes, it needs studying. it would be bloody awesome if we did not need to lockdown.

Well, for the next one.

But they’ve only stolen a year out of our lives and maybe destroyed economies worldwide on an unproven strategy. We should be angry.

@Delatron

I’ll await the experienced epidemiologists insight then. In a few years most likely when it will probably be too late. Thankfully this comparison is being discussed in the media and the science community. Many articles about it. I guess they think it’s worth discussing and analysing right now.

Very short sighted just to dismiss these comparisons. Of course we don’t have all the data yet. It still needs to be discussed and analysed rather than dismissed.

The thing that really angers me is that they always say ‘we need more research!’ when it comes to these lockdown figures.

But they did the same sort of logical leaps with face masks (look at East Asia! They wear face masks and that’s why they are doing well!) and ignore confounding things like obesity and age that may also explain much of the difference.

I everyday I see kids on soccer practice and playground without a mask.

You mean they are outside? The risk is low, frankly

I do think Texas is definitely doing this too soon, but I predict a blip rather than a bloodbath, due to the end of flu season, the continuing rollout of the vaccine, and the fact that a lot of people will continue to follow all or most restrictions anyway, even if they are not legally required to.

Why does so many people think outdoor activities is low risk? These people are close together- huffing and puffing at each other