Data 3 weeks ahead of model - open up earlier experts say

[starfro]

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh and a member of SPI-M, said:

"The data are indeed looking better than the models were predicting and – to the best of my knowledge – better than anyone was expecting."

"If the phrase 'data-driven not date-driven' has any meaning, then it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected and not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected."

"It remains the case that if we unlock too far, too quickly, we risk a resurgence. However, given the data, I'd hope that the Government is actively considering unlocking just as cautiously but appreciably less slowly."

"Lockdown continues to be just as harmful as ever, so there is a public health imperative to relax measures as soon as it is safe to do so. An over-abundance of caution is not a cost-free option."

Vaccines are working much better than expected and take-up is higher than thought.

Finally there is likely to be more infection-based immunity too.

All great news!

I would want to see figures 2 weeks after schools reopen before considering moving the dates.

It's great news but agree with PP. Schools opening WILL mean an increase in cases so I think the government have the right idea going slow. If we opened everything all at once then we'd be back where we started.

Schools first, then the rest slowly.

The problem is that there is a contradiction in what he says. Just as cautiously but less slowly isn’t possible.

The 5 week gap isn’t because of the models, it is so that there is long enough to see the impact on hospitalisation and deaths of any changes to restrictions. Case numbers are not as useful now, but the useful data takes longer to come through.

Having said that, I can see some argument for less cautiously, but just think that suggesting you can do both is not appropriate.

An over-abundance of caution is not a cost-free option.

I love this.