New coronavirus variants forever?

[lightand]

AIBU?!

There may already be a thread on this, but if there is not, am I correct in thinking there will always be new variants?

Probably but the scientists have got our backs.

Yes

It's why vaccinating the whole world matters, because one could brew up and spread from anywhere.

Getting more countries doing more testing so new variants are even more rapidly spotted will also matter

It's why vaccinating the whole world matters, because one could brew up and spread from anywhere

But cant it forever more?
Boris has already said that coronavirus will not go away.

There always has been variants and always will be. There are thousands. Considering there were Italian, Chinese and US specific strains known about since practically the beginning of the pandemic its strange how suddenly all the focus is on THE VARIANTS!!

Every single virus mutates the whole time, that's what they do. The only difference is that there is an awful lot of time (both of scientists and of media) devoted to looking at covid mutations. We just don't hear about virus mutations most of the time because they're not in relation to pandemics and aren't really news!

That is what I am puzzling about @FromEden.
I cant understand also, why 1 out of 20,000 or whatever the number of variants is, is a problem, and it seems literally 19,994 are not.

I probably have more questions too.

Such as, do the variants produce more variants. As you see, I am

Yes there will be variants, most won't matter, some might cause problems. There is a risk of vaccine escape. We should be trying to push cases lower to limit the number of mutations.

We are so lucky in the UK to have ability to track them.

Yes variants produce more variants. If the virus mutates too much that variant can fail to infect at all.

@lightand Some variants are a problem (the ones in focus now like the Brazil, Kent, California etc) because they are more transmissible than others which means more cases, more percentage of people ending up in hospital and overwhelming it if the current vaccine is ineffective with said variants

Viruses will continue to mutate, variants producing more variants as long as there is transmission. The more transmissible ones will prevail over the other ones.

The variant that was present in the US last summer was also said to be more contagious. There still wasn't the big furore about it that there is now about the others, it was barely mentioned at all.

link from May 2020

Thanks for the replies, but having trouble getting my head around them. Will have a retry tomorrow.

It's the changes that affect the spike proteins that are important as those are the ones that the current vaccines seem to be less good at dealing with. It's a race against time, trying to get as many people vaccinated, and to drive the case numbers down at the same time, to prevent a vaccine escape form taking over before the point that they have been able to get booster shots out that will deal with that variant. The concerning ones often seem to be developing the same sort of mutation in that region, independently. Eventually, vaccines might be able to deal with a greater variety of mutants and not need to be updated as often - there was an idea of a 'universal' vaccine that was being designed at one point. But between now and then, it's still on a knife edge - it could still go wrong, despite all the progress with vaccines, if one of these others becomes dominant and the vaccines aren't effective enough. Or if a new one develops and spreads, which is more likely to happen the more cases there are, even if many of them aren't serious. The vaccines will eventually be able to be tweaked to deal with it, but it's a race to get the case numbers low enough that the new ones can be spotted and traced. And to get the rest of the world vaccinated too.

Many other variants are not concerning, because they don't change the particular part of the virus that the vaccines are using to build the antibodies. So hundreds of thousands of variants might be fine, but it only takes one concerning one to take hold, for things to potentially go pear-shaped very quickly.

@lightand

That is what I am puzzling about *@FromEden*. I cant understand also, why 1 out of 20,000 or whatever the number of variants is, is a problem, and it seems literally 19,994 are not.

I probably have more questions too.

Such as, do the variants produce more variants. As you see, I am

So every time a virus infects someone, it creates copies of itself. Each time a copy is produced, there is a chance that the genetic code will be copied with a mistake - a "mutation". Bringing down the number of people infected (via lockdowns, distancing, vaccinations etc) will reduce the mutation rate.

Most of the time a mutation either doesn't change the virus at all, or changes something very minor that doesn't affect it. However every so often a mutation will produce a significant change. These are termed new strains and are a concern as they may be more transmissible, more virulent (unlikely), or no longer recognised by the immune system. Fortunately by bringing down total number of infections we do reduce the change of this happening substantially. This is why most epidemiologists are pro a more conservative approach regarding easing of lockdown restrictions.

Parts I dont understand
@ChameleonClara There is a risk of vaccine escape - you mean a vaccine may not be able to cope?

We should be trying to push cases lower to limit the number of mutations - that bit I certainly dont understand. Ties in with other posts here, as in, coronavirus could just mutate between the world population for ever and ever, so what point trying to limit mutations?

And tying in with your other point of, if it mutates too much, it can fail to mutate at all. Which is what we want surely?

Yes, just like the flu. And they are already working on the next set of vaccines. I think thr media scare monger, and then some people scare monger even more. The Brazilian strain for example the manufactures are stating it might be “slightly less effective” so still largely very effective.

I think the government is doing a fantastic job in the sequencing snd catching mutations quickly to be cautious, I think the media is doing an awful job in how they report it.

Vaccine escape means yes, a variant that the vaccines we have won’t work against. Vaccines target the spike protein; if that part of the virus mutates in particular ways then the vaccine can be less effective. That’s why variants are big news now, rather than earlier on. Before we had vaccines, we didn’t need to be so concerned with variants unless they made the virus more dangerous. Now a variant could be more dangerous and/or render all our vaccines less useful and undo much of our progress.

We can’t eradicate this virus so it will always mutate but if we suppress it down very low through vaccines and other restrictions, we reduce its opportunity to mutate further and this buys us time to keep working on new vaccine developments so that we can keep pace with the ways in which it changes.

If infection numbers are low, we can track mutations and contain outbreaks more easily and hopefully stop any harmful mutations in their tracks before they have a chance to become endemic in the population.

We are in a race with the virus. We have treatments, vaccinations and restrictions. The virus has mutations. We need to stay ahead in the race.

@lightand

yes, 'vaccine escape' means a variant that does not provoke an immunity response in vaccinated people or makes the vaccine much weaker in terms of preventing death/serious illness.

A vaccine works by priming your immune system to 'recognise' the virus. If it mutates a little/in certain ways, the vaccine still works even if it might be e.g. 75% effective instead of 85%. If it mutates a lot, the vaccine may not recognise it. However - also if it mutates a lot the virus may not be able to infect anyway. So the virus doesn't have unlimited scope to mutate.

It is not a given that the virus will mutate in a way that causes vaccine problems, but this is a possibility. This is why I am when people say there will never be another lockdown because if we get a bad variant it'll be like a new virus - as in we would have no vaccine protection in the community. But the response will of course be quicker than developing the first vaccine.

What is happening currently is variants e.g. South Africa, Brazil reduce the efficacy of the vaccine but not too much, and can be dealt with by revamping the vaccine.

Fewer cases = lower risk of variants causing issues. The government have not chosen this approach meaning the UK will have high circulating virus amongst the unvaccinated so we will have to see what happens with variants over 2021.

But remember the vaccines are excellent and can be varied, this is such a positive.

@Bluntness100

Yes, just like the flu. And they are already working on the next set of vaccines. I think thr media scare monger, and then some people scare monger even more. The Brazilian strain for example the manufactures are stating it might be “slightly less effective” so still largely very effective.

I think the government is doing a fantastic job in the sequencing snd catching mutations quickly to be cautious, I think the media is doing an awful job in how they report it.

Are the government overreacting, by going door to door for example?

Are the government overreacting, by going door to door for example?

For me, no, I don’t think so. I think because they don’t know it’s better to stop it in it’s tracks, until they do know. They’d get slaughtered if it was found to be a problem and they didn’t. So no, I think it’s right.

I think though the issue is people can’t see it for what it is. The media reports are sensationalist.

I think it’s better to overreact than underreact in this case. If we are vigilant in identifying and containing mutations as best we can, we can have confidence in the vaccine programme and it puts us on much better footing for tackling any problematic variants that emerge later. Hopefully it will end up like the flu vaccinations whereby we roll out booster shots to target the dominant strain each winter. Like flu, covid will exist and people will catch it and it will kill but we will have limited it as much as possible.

We are in a race with the virus. We have treatments, vaccinations and restrictions. The virus has mutations. We need to stay ahead in the race.

We are in a race with the virus. We have treatments, vaccinations and restrictions. The virus has mutations and the UK government's high circulating cases approach. We need to stay ahead in the race.

IMO the UK government could have chosen a better strategy. Another thread has been discussing festivals - that is the sort of activity that maybe should have been left for 2022 given the benefit of limiting new cases and new variants.

Are the government overreacting, by going door to door for example?

Absolutely not overreacting. One thingthat has been a clear feature of this government is they react too late and too little.

It is also an issue that the always react. A little proactivity goes a long way.

UK quarantine is poor for example. Also allowing cases to circulate very highly is risky. The government is obsessed with testing afterwards rather than preventing issues arising in the first place.

It is not a given that the virus will mutate in a way that causes vaccine problems, but this is a possibility. This is why I am hmm when people say there will never be another lockdown because if we get a bad variant it'll be like a new virus - as in we would have no vaccine protection in the community. But the response will of course be quicker than developing the first vaccine

Yes, I get that now you have written it. I thought lockdowns were reliant on NHS being overwhelmed, and that the current vaccines would be of some help. Sounds like you are saying a new variant, and we are effectivey back at square one, as current vaccines no help at all?

Now I see though that your paragraph before that explains it a bit, but to be honest I am still confused.

Dont worry if you dont want to explain things further, it is me that is struggling here. I have bitten off a bit more than I can chew with this thread.

I see that @Thimbleberries is explaining it too. Thank you. And @LegoPirateMonkey

It seems to be a race that I ma not convinced we will win or can win.