Why are some hot spots showing increases in covid cases?

[studychick81]

Why are 1/5 counsels showing a rise in cases? Do you think Is this because there is less compliance, the demographic that lives there or less up take on vaccinations? It's concerning if the vaccination wasn't having the desired affect in those areas.

I noticed this and also saw that some areas previously had lower rates than some others. I don't know the answer, but wonder if some people are being forced into work more or there is a specific factor, for example as nurseries are open.

The one I work in people are not following the rules.

A few places have had rapid testing centres open so more people are getting checked. At least that’s what happened where I am in relation to the spike

We consistently had the lowest rates in the country till we got a testing centre.
Hospital admissions are what counts.

Our local prison had an outbreak which pushed the numbers up a lot

There;s a covid section for this.

I thought it was the prisons too.

Hospital break outs skew the figures too

@Acappuchinoplease

A few places have had rapid testing centres open so more people are getting checked. At least that’s what happened where I am in relation to the spike

Yes, same here.

We've just had half term? I imagine people might have mixed even if they weren't supposed to.

My son's company had 8 +ve cases on Wednesday. Rather than tracing work contacts and instructing them to isolate, they sent them out of work to get tested- telling him and the others to return to work after the test

He went to work the next day while waiting for the results- which came in +ve at 6pm. So, he'd been in work +ve all day. Along with 9 others who also tested +ve.

I'm expecting rates in our area to rise this week

I am in a ‘hot spot’.
We’ve had low cases throughout. Never really had a peak. Even when we were put in tier 3 before Christmas we had fewer than 100 cases per 100k.
Cases have gradually crept up over the past month. We have a lot of big food factories/warehouses nearby and Covid ‘Marshall’s’ have been sent into them doing mass asymptomatic lateral flow testing. Our increase in cases is directly correlated with this happening.

Prison outbreaks, nursing home outbreaks.

Oh and I can’t see any evidence of mass non compliance. Everyone I know is keeping their heads down and sticking to the rules.

Can't we put this in the Covid topic, @MNHQ?

@Acappuchinoplease

A few places have had rapid testing centres open so more people are getting checked. At least that’s what happened where I am in relation to the spike

Ah I hope this is the case.

Sorry, couldn't find the covid section.

I’m also wondering if the size of said local authorities isn’t have something to do with it.

The ones around me are small which means a very small change (like 1 or 2 people more been tested positive) will make them look like the numbers are going up. When actually stepping back just a little more (either geographically or in time) makes you realise this is not the case.

I’m wondering what is going to happen when school reopen next week and all the secondary school children will have been tested.... are we going to see a ‘spike’??

We're just moving this over to the Coronavirus topic.

@ParadiseIsland

I’m also wondering if the size of said local authorities isn’t have something to do with it.

The ones around me are small which means a very small change (like 1 or 2 people more been tested positive) will make them look like the numbers are going up. When actually stepping back just a little more (either geographically or in time) makes you realise this is not the case.

I’m wondering what is going to happen when school reopen next week and all the secondary school children will have been tested.... are we going to see a ‘spike’??

Yes, that is definitely the case where I am. Smallish population meaning it only takes a couple of families having positive tests for our numbers to look awful.

My area went up this week. Yorkshire. We live in a huge council area that encompasses some very affluent areas and the complete opposite end. Funnily enough, my affluent-village has very low numbers. The local paper said about 80% of people here WFH. But a 40 minute drive away, a very different story. Still my council. A large amount of warehouses & food/furniture factories served by the local community. In complete contrast, the same survey showed 80% of people in that area cannot WFH. And that’s the reason. A decent portion of my council area is not well off & the population cannot WFH. Those people are not only working in factories, warehouses, hospitals etc but they are more likely to need to use family for childcare because they are out working and/or may not be able to afford nursery.

A further issue is three large areas of ethnic minority families. Vaccine uptake is extremely low amongst them & cases have always been sky high in those areas. A lot of inter generational living & I’d certainly say low compliance here.

Prisons.

I'm in an area where there's been a small rise. It's also an area that's had 2 lots of surge testing. There were 9,000 extra tests in the first neighbourhood that was surge tested and I presume a similar number in the second area a week or so later.

That's a lot of extra tests when the population is about 100,000. I'm assuming that's why we've seen a small rise.