What does Boris mean by this? Aren’t the vaccines effective?

[fireflylanegirls]

On the Sky News page

Mr Johnson said lifting lockdown would result in more cases, more hospitalisations and sadly more deaths regardless of when measures are relaxed, because there will always be some vulnerable people who are not protected by the vaccines

So does that mean some vulnerable people will
still die? Even if vaccinated?

@FourTeaFallOut

I'm not sure if I'm more amazed by how many fit young people who died of coronavirus some people know or how confident some people are of knowing the medical history of other people.

This.

20% of staff at the factory I work at have had Covid and no one has died or even has long Covid! We aren't talking young healthy people either, mostly 50+ men who like a drink and a smoke.

@FourTeaFallOut

I'm not sure if I'm more amazed by how many fit young people who died of coronavirus some people know or how confident some people are of knowing the medical history of other people.

I was thinking the same.

And we can reduce the numbers dying of flu and colds if we continue to wear masks in shops in winter.

I look like a fit young person but I'm cev. If I kicked the bucket all but my closest of friends would be saying how this fit young person died of covid because, like most people with chronic illness, I don't broadcast my health issues.

I think it might mean that some vulnerable people are unable to have the vaccine.

Well the study for the Oxford vaccine said it prevented 100% of hospitalisation.

Efficacy from phase 3 trial results on relatively small numbers of people is highly unlikely to mean 100% efficiency in the real world involving millions of people.

[quote Pootle40]And let's not forget this today......amazing news

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600[/quote]
I best headline EVER! 😀

If we count under-60 as 'young': In England, there have been about 4,717 covid deaths of people aged 0-59. As there are about 50.6 million under-60s in England, that is about 0.0093% of that portion of the population. Depending on where you get the statistics, between 80% and 94% of people who die from covid have another significant illness ie they were not 'fit and healthy.'

Therefore, statistically the chances of a person knowing even one fit young person who died of covid are absolutely tiny. Knowing two is almost impossible, statistically. The odds of knowing three are so incredibly tiny that I can only conclude people who claim it are just lying.

@TheDailyCarbunkle

If we count under-60 as 'young': In England, there have been about 4,717 covid deaths of people aged 0-59. As there are about 50.6 million under-60s in England, that is about 0.0093% of that portion of the population. Depending on where you get the statistics, between 80% and 94% of people who die from covid have another significant illness ie they were not 'fit and healthy.'

Therefore, statistically the chances of a person knowing even one fit young person who died of covid are absolutely tiny. Knowing two is almost impossible, statistically. The odds of knowing three are so incredibly tiny that I can only conclude people who claim it are just lying.

@TheDailyCarbunkle

I like you...

Therefore, statistically the chances of a person knowing even one fit young person who died of covid are absolutely tiny. Knowing two is almost impossible, statistically. The odds of knowing three are so incredibly tiny that I can only conclude people who claim it are just lying

Maybe they did have an underlying health condition. Does being BAME and being male put you in the vulnerable group?

If a vaccine is about say 90% effective, then in 10% it is considerably less effective, and those people could still fall very ill.

It is also possible that in some people, it may not work as well as intended (this is known from how people do not form the expected immune response to other vaccines). This is primarily people with blood cancers and various other conditions which affect the functioning of the immune system, or who are receiving threatments that cause immune suppression (eg chemotherapy). People in those evening categories are CEV, and so are probably the vulnerable he means in this context.

This is why the initial JCVI/MHRA publications in November included immediate cohabitants of CEV as category 6 (in table 3 of the guidance). But this was suspended pending more info on how well the vaccines suppressed transmission. Unfortunately, despite clear statements from JVT and others that there is indubitably an effect (even though not fully quantified) they are yet to put CEV cohabitants back to the category where they were originally placed. This is unfortunate, because as the PM says, some of the exceptionally vulnerable will remain vulnerable, and this is the vaccine-based way to give them a better measure of protection.

90% would be a gross under-estimate at reducing the effect on mortality. It's almost that effective at cutting hospitalisations.

Nobody who’d had the Oxford vaccine was hospitalised in the trial but the number who’d had the placebo and were hospitalised was tiny. So yes the headline figure of 100% effective in preventing hospitalisation is true, but the error bars around that number are very big - well I guess not at the top end but at the bottom end the effectiveness might well be significantly less - we’ll just have to continue collecting the data. Looking really good so far, but I’d bet my house on it not being 100%.

Some people won't or can't have the vaccine, so there will be vulnerable people around who may get ill or even die.

Where have you been?

Vaccination does not stop people getting Covid, nor does it stop transmission

However it does lesson symptoms so hopefully not as many will require hospitals. In addition many are not getting vaccinated, so therefore is PF they get it it could be a serious case

Also because the vaccination figures vary a lot from source to source, depending on exactly what is being measured, and when, and in which populations.

For example, in over 80s, the effectiveness might be quite a lot lower than in some of the headline figures, especially after one jab.
inews.co.uk/news/health/covid-19-pfizer-vaccine-hospital-death-research-cuts-risk-elderly-phe-882750?ito=social_ifb_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1614011311

Not every one can or will have the vaccine, and some might still get somewhat (or very) ill with it, and depending on what other conditions they have, they could die.

We also don't know how long immunity will last, or how well people will be able to fight the new variants with the immunity that they do get from the vaccines - or if that's different in different age groups.

So although vaccines are the way out, there is still a lot unknown, and the government has to acknowledge that.

*Where have you been?

Vaccination does not stop people getting Covid, nor does it stop transmission*

Where have you been? It does both, just not in the easily understood by Muppets form of being 100% effective at either.

Even without the vaccination an 80 year old would have been more likely survive than die from Covid. It’s not a serious illness for most people. You add in a vaccine. This reduces that small risk down even further.

We are not starting from a point where most people will be seriously ill and therefore depending on the vaccine. It will help ‘mop up’ those cases that would have turned serious and the efficacy is amazing.

Mr Johnson said lifting lockdown would result in more cases, more hospitalisations and sadly more deaths regardless of when measures are relaxed, because there will always be some vulnerable people who are not protected by the vaccines

Finally some common sense ...

Risk is a price of freedom.

Instead we are paying a very high price for a disease which mainly kills people who are beyond average life expectancy.

there will always be some vulnerable people who are not protected by the vaccines

I assumed he was referring to the vulnerable who have not had the vaccine, either cos their turn hasnt come or cos they can't or won't have it.

It could also refer to the vaccine not being 100% but I assumed the above.

Yes. No vaccine is 100%. This is why some people still die of flu even if they’d been vaccinated. Is this really news to you?

And as vaccinations aren’t mandatory not everyone will be protected as not everyone will accept them, mainly BAME groups atm but I think higher proportions of all ethnic younger groups will be