Is the number of deaths going to be much lower than average over the next couple of years?

[katieloves]

Assuming booster jabs are produced to tackle variants, maintain immunity etc. can we look forward to a few years of low death numbers considering the average age of people who have died from coronavirus?

No.

Prolonged NHS lists for pretty much every speciality and complications such as blood clots from Long Covid.

I think it is a possibility, yes (as long as no bad flu years), but possibly more over 5 years.

We have an average age of death, do we have an average number of years 'lost'?

Covid has caused early mortality displacement (brought deaths forward that would soon happen anyway) - or harvesting, if you want the gross word for it.

the longer term harms are likely to be increased morbidity rather than increased mortality, including from long covid but delayed treatment for other conditions, too.

I agree with MedSchoolRat

If we had managed to continue cancer diagnosis and treatment normally. Plus all the other operations and treatments then yes. However the NHS couldn't handle that. So people will now die for a few years that would normally have survived. Also there will still be some covid deaths because not everyone is able or willing to be vaccinated. Hopefully these will be very few though.