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So how protected are you after one dose of AZ/Pfizer?

52 replies

unmumsymummy21 · 19/02/2021 07:03

I've read lots of info on this which contradicts itself...

As usual with anything covid there are a million and one opinions on this.

Can anyone brighter than me enlighten me ?

Protection at 3 weeks after the first dose?

Thank you !

OP posts:
babyyodaxmas · 19/02/2021 07:10

Best guess is from Tim Spector/ Zoe App.
Pfzeir - about 70% at 3 weeks.
Az- haven't a clue their trial data is quite frankly a mess and not enough people are 3 weeks post vaccine to know. I would suggest 40-50%

unmumsymummy21 · 19/02/2021 07:24

Thank you that's helpful !

OP posts:
Timbucktime · 19/02/2021 07:36

Are you protected from actually catching it or just from more severe symptoms?
Keep reading different things.

PinkDaffodil2 · 19/02/2021 07:38

Both have very good protection from severe disease at 3 weeks after first dose. Looks like 60-80% from mild disease, and maybe similar from passing it on. (SA strain too early to say).
The Israel data is very good for Pfizer

unmumsymummy21 · 19/02/2021 07:40

And also passing it on my DD won't be vaccinated obviously. She's only 1. I don't want to pass it to her. Regular lateral flow tests then ?

OP posts:
Loopy22 · 19/02/2021 07:43

I currently have the virus I work front line and caught it from an unvaccinated person .. I had my first jab in January, currently symptomatic so not that effective

unmumsymummy21 · 19/02/2021 07:45

@Loopy22 oh no I'm sorry ! I hope you recover very quickly and that it's very mild for you.

OP posts:
CuriousaboutSamphire · 19/02/2021 07:46

Like all vaccines it is mainly against severe symptoms.

And, as usual, all current data, still incomplete, suggest that all currently available vaccines are similar in efficacy. All the pfaffing about AZ being lesser than, badly made/designed/researched is simply distracting from the basic facts, it is a well known vaccine base and it works well. Like all the others!

We keep being told different things because no journalist likes to miss a bit of doom and gloom. Usually we wouldn't ever see any of the interim data, or be expected to work our way through all the varying opinions based on raw data, interim studoes and incomplete data sets.

Remember, all we are hearing now is about efficacy over and above "enough to save your life" The stuff that usually gets done over a decade or so of ongoing research! Again, the money being thrown at this is allowing the data to be crunched far more quickly than usual, so we see all the data as it is collated, in quick successsion. And again, journalists and SM commentators make much of any apparent contradictions. Some of them even know what they are doing when they spread disinformation based on this data, others, like most of the readers, don't understand enough to know what they are looking at.

The exciting bit is the new form of vaccine. When all of this is done and usted there is some amazng new medical research to be done on that!

roses2 · 19/02/2021 07:48

@Loopy22

I currently have the virus I work front line and caught it from an unvaccinated person .. I had my first jab in January, currently symptomatic so not that effective
Which vaccine did you get?
Kylorey · 19/02/2021 07:52

@Loopy22

I currently have the virus I work front line and caught it from an unvaccinated person .. I had my first jab in January, currently symptomatic so not that effective
When in January did you have it? How long after did you get symptoms?
OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 07:55

This is clearer www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326

67% protection against getting covid at at all (pcr negative), 76% protection against getting symptomatic covid.

Extremely crudely, taking the incorrect starting point of someone definitely getting covid if they are exposed to it, I guess you could say that if you had Oxford and met someone else who had had Oxford and they had been exposed to Covid in a way that would be normally enough to infect them, the chance of you getting covid would be very roughly 11%. You chance of getting symptomatic covid would be 8%

I expect real world numbers would be lower than that because we know that not everyone who is exposed to covid develops it and of course the person you meet may have had covid etc etc...

However, this is not a licence for everyone to start taking risks, the more people do, the more covid there will be out there and the numbers will still grow rapidly even when personal risk is lower. That keeps us all in this miserable state for longer.

We also, don't yet know how well the vaccine is responded to in people who are immunosupressed.

Loopy22 · 19/02/2021 07:56

I got the Pfizer currently can’t taste or smell anything and feel a tad weak on occasions. Wish they’d offed the second one earlier because of the nature of my job. More worried about passing it onto the kids.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 07:57

Remember it takes 3 weeks to develop any meaningful response. And it doesn't protect against developing it if you were exposed before your vaccine. So there's probably 4-5 weeks after the vaccine that we wouldn't expect to see too much reduction in developing covid.

Earlgrey666 · 19/02/2021 08:00

This is reported today in The Telegraph:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-lockdown-end-school-test-uk-cases/amp/

"The Pfizer vaccine is 85 per cent effective after a single dose, an Isreali study has found as the country's top scientists endorsed the UK approach of giving out the jabs up to 12 weeks apart.

Researchers at Sheba Medical Centre gave one dose to 7,000 healthcare workers in January and found there was an 85 per cent reduction rate in Covid symptoms after 15-28 days, while overall infections - including asymptomatic cases - fell by 75 per cent."

Loopy22 · 19/02/2021 08:03

I was talking precautions, however a lot of mistakes have been made. Not going into details..

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 08:08

Another crude way of looking at it is that what ever the R number is, divide by 3 for Oxford in the first vaccine population. So It's a fantastic reduction, but if left to run totally wild with no social distancing would still lead to a big increase in cases. Does anyone have any predicted figures for R in a society with no social distancing?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 08:09

So for pfizer, divide R by 4 for the single vaccine population.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 08:25

And this means that if we assumed that everyone so far had Oxford (to simplify calculations), that in the adult population we would expect to see in about 4 weeks, with 30% of the population having had their first dose (again extremely crudely) R overall dropping by 21%
Of course we are vaccinating all the time so this is a rolling and improving figure.

Kylorey · 19/02/2021 08:27

Timing is important loopy and might be what made the difference in your case. That's why I'm asking about when you had the jab and when you got symptoms. Not asking for details about anything else just interested to know. Were you exposed longer than 3 weeks after you had the first dose?

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 19/02/2021 08:31

The R number is made up of three separate parts - why divide by three (when the change is only to one part) ?

(Meaning where did that number come from, as the period of infectiousness hasn't changes, and nit enough is known about the (ok likely) to secondary attack rate)

roses2 · 19/02/2021 08:32

@Earlgrey666

This is reported today in The Telegraph:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-lockdown-end-school-test-uk-cases/amp/

"The Pfizer vaccine is 85 per cent effective after a single dose, an Isreali study has found as the country's top scientists endorsed the UK approach of giving out the jabs up to 12 weeks apart.

Researchers at Sheba Medical Centre gave one dose to 7,000 healthcare workers in January and found there was an 85 per cent reduction rate in Covid symptoms after 15-28 days, while overall infections - including asymptomatic cases - fell by 75 per cent."

Israel had a very extreme lockdown from December- still current so a drop in cases is of course normal. I'd like to know if the 75% drop in cases is being compared to their last lockdown or when they were all in the office working in October.
CuriousaboutSamphire · 19/02/2021 08:39

I'd like to know if the 75% drop in cases is being compared to their last lockdown or when they were all in the office working in October. The study will have data on that, it will be one of the identified variables.

But the article says January... sso it's there too!

CuriousaboutSamphire · 19/02/2021 08:40

You even c+p'd it!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/02/2021 08:45

Unmentioned because if for example R was 3 you'd expect to infect 3 people, but now only one of those people would expect to be infected, reducing R to 1.

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