What comes 'after' the pandemic?

[ThinkAboutItTomorrow]

Grim reading from a Futures Company

soif.org.uk/app/uploads/2021/02/SOIF-The-Long-Pandemic.pdf

They are suggesting:
2 years for the health effects
5-10 years for the economic effects
A generation for the psychological effects

I think a lot of this is a very real possibility.

Well, no-one really knows, do they? Maybe thinking more positively about these things might cheer you up. Sometimes life doesn’t turn out to be an unmitigated catastrophe, after all.

A big party!

Tbh without wanting to sound like a massive pessimist (I'm really not) those sound like best case scenarios to me.

How on earth will we rebalanced the books financially in under 10 years given the huge huge impact this has had on just a bit everything? I'd have thought the economic impacts would be felt for a generation.

The others I don't have any real way of having an opinion on, I've somehow managed to be pretty lucky and suffered minimal psychological damage, nor have most people I know, so it's hard for me to begin to imagine the magnitude of the impact on others / how many people will suffer large effects psychologically

I think we've a long road ahead for sure.

All I can do is try to keep myself positive, because the alternative is worse.

It'll all be fine. Different, and with some difficulty at times, but we have one option and that's to make the very best of it.

I’d be amazed if it’s as low as that for all three of those.

We pay for it

Another Roaring Twenties, according to an article I read in The Economist.

It’s what happened after Spanish Flu.

A bit of a mess.

Some people bounce back quickly, others take a long time. Some people ready to make it another roaring 20s. Some will be able to spend, some will have had that option entirely taken away from them.

It’s a reminder to do all we can to look after our wellbeing as much as we can, make use of the support there is and connect with and look after each other. I really hope this will be the point in history when policy will shift towards greater equality.

Looks about right?
Not sure 10 years will sort out the economic effects. But there does seem to be plenty of people wanting to go out and spend, as soon as they are able?!

I can believe that completely. The psychological impact will be lifelong for many.

Yep it’s going to be grim? Challenging? It is what it is though, a natural event causing chaos.

The health and economic effects will definitely be with us for a while.

However, humans are adaptable and resilient. It's been an awful time for almost everyone. There will be some that struggle to overcome what they've been through, particularly if they have suffered loss, but there will be many that psychologically bounce back well. There are plenty of people who will be there ready to make up for lost time and will be back spending and socialising as soon as they can. It will be like childbirth - the brain will block out the parts that have been too hard and will will focus on the future. It doesn't need to be bleak.

The worry for me looking back at past pandemics is the context. AfterSpanish Flu we had the roaring twenties, sure but then the thirties. Yuck.

And that was in an environment of strong growth and improving conditions for most people.

Covid has hit in a context of long term worsening of economic conditions for most in the west as real time incomes and expectations decline. We already had the first generation in a very long time expecting a worse standard of living and life expectation than their parents.

Politically I think things will get really ugly.

The 1920s wasn't all Great Gatsby for the majority of the population.

Instead it was grinding poverty, high unemployment and the General strike of 1926:

www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zp77pbk/revision/2

They’re probably right but not much point in worry about stuff that (1) might not happen and (2) I have very little control over. Just try to make the best of it.

@RedBrickChimney you're right. But it is part of my job as well so not just morbid curiosity 😆

@MapGirlExtraordinaire has it right about the economic effects being felt for a generation. Maybe for two.

Sadly I think that dreams of a fairer society are just that - dreams. People need to highly qualified, rich and geographically mobile, or they will have few chances in future. I would like to be wrong.

• to be highly qualified, etc

A big party!

Count me in!😊

We pay for all of it.
Shit. Shit.
This will be worse I think

Ebola?

We make some good decisions and get through this with minimal further loss of life.

The vaccines work.

We develop more vaccines in time for them to work on the variant.

We make a better than expected economic recovery therefore.

Our government is inspired to put money into health and education. We develop pioneering treatments and our children are inspired to follow STEM subjects. They catch up. The UK universities and labs continue to be at the forefront of progress.

We develop an amicable relationship with the EU (after providing most of the vaccines they need in a mutually beneficial arrangement).

Fingers crossed.

Oh and there are an awful lot of music festivals and parties when it's safe. And weddings. And babies. And everyone has a year when they have 3 birthday celebrations to make up for all the ones they missed.