Infection drop due to lockdown not vaccines?

[freezingcoldsnow]

This news article is obviously an attempt at a good news story - lower rates, study shows lockdown working etc etc. There's a paragraph though that says:

This uniform decrease in age groups means that there is no evidence that the vaccination programme is behind the fall in infections. If that was the case, the researchers said, they would expect to see a bigger drop in people aged 65 and over.^
^
Is it too soon to see a drop in vaccinated people? I maybe naively thought we would start to see a drop like Israel did....or is it the lack of second dose driving it? Or is it really not affecting transmission?

Anyone with greater knowledge help me out here?!

news.sky.com/story/lockdown-is-working-dramatic-fall-in-england-covid-infection-rate-says-imperial-college-study-12221339

my understanding is that while the vaccine reduces the impact of the infection on the individual it doesn't effect transmission or incidences of infection so don't see why they would be monitoring this seems odd to me.

The cynical part of me says that these figures are being paraded as a 'look at what a good job we are doing stop criticising us', rather than actually being meaningful. The full picture would be infections, symptomatic vs asymptomatic and hospitalisation, split by area and age groups as a minimum but it is still quite early to see meaningful reductions as a result of vaccinations and the data published has been spotty at best from the start.

A fall in infections is obviously positive no matter what has caused it and I would hope to see a further decrease in infections as well as fewer hospital admissions (ie vaccinated people may be infected but not require medical care).

1st jab provides the majority of the protection. 2nd jab adds to it and makes it longer lasting.

Evidence now show’s AZ works better with a 12 week gap - no evidence yet on Pfizer.

Both have been shown to reduce transmission.

Deaths are dropping faster in the over 80’s than any other age group.

Once the over 50’s are vaccinated (some time in April) plus a few weeks for immunity to kick in, we will see hospitalisation rates fall through the floor. Until then, be patient.

This concerns me if I'm honest. Since March 2020, 4 million people have had covid in the UK (which SHOULD provide them with some immunity). In addition to this there has been 15 million vaccinations given since December. That's a third of the entire UK population. Surely we should be seeing a higher decrease in cases considering we are in a lockdown as well?

my understanding is that while the vaccine reduces the impact of the infection on the individual it doesn't effect transmission or incidences of infection

No. Use google.

Immunity is however not thought to be long-lasting - many people have caught covid more than once.

@Okokokbear

Well the roll out started in mid Dec. How many people have even had their 2nd dose yet? Not that many. It's basically too soon for the vaccine to have an impact.

I don't want to be too rude op you could genuinely not have thought about this simple fact. Or were you trying to create doubt in the effectiveness of the vaccine? Just seems something quite simple to not understand.

Don't want to be rude - while being rude. Thanks.

Patience is exactly what we need right now. In the first lockdown there was no end in sight so we had to end it when numbers were lower.

Now we have the vaccine a bit more patience will literally save lives. The vaccine rollout is going so well, we have slowed slightly due to supply by I think that's due to increase again soon.

The NHS staff are knackered, they deserve not to have a third wave.

@Hollyhead

I think there is some early evidence that the death rate in the over 80s is falling faster than in other groups which is potentially a sign.

Yes this. Cases may take longer to show

I think it's worth considering the differences between the vax'd population versus those who are mostly affected by lockdown for example.

If we only had lockdown and no vaccine, you would expect little change in care home cases, as those people are by definition not mobile, and so their behaviour and contacts are not changed by lockdown. Similarly for over 90s and many over 80s. As the age bands go down then you can assume more mobility, but if there was no vaccine, I would expect lockdown to mostly impact cases in the 0-70 bracket, and have much less impact as the age bands go up.

As rates are decreasing across age bands, I think it points to a mixture of lockdown and vaccines having an effect.

@PandemicPalava

I think we may follow the Israel path, which is why I don't think the 22nd announcement will be anything more then some year groups going back to school and maybe being able to meet a couple more people outside for exercise at a push.

Let’s hope so. If it’s been shown that after the second dose and a tight lockdown it works then the sensible decision would be to use that knowledge and copy it.

@herecomesthsun

You & the scientific community don’t know that. I’d say to the contrary the PHE findings - thus far - are actually quite positive re: natural immunity but yes, we don’t know how long that will remain the case. That said, signs from SARS 1 were/are encouraging & that’s Covid’s closest relative.

I've heard intensive care rates might be much slower to fall because the age profile of intensive care patients is lower, so less likely to have been vaccinated yet(?) This isn't age discrimination or some sort of rationing, its because apparently you need to be quite robust in the first place to cope with IC and very elderly, over 80s etc tend to be too frail.

[quote MummyPop00]@herecomesthsun

You & the scientific community don’t know that. I’d say to the contrary the PHE findings - thus far - are actually quite positive re: natural immunity but yes, we don’t know how long that will remain the case. That said, signs from SARS 1 were/are encouraging & that’s Covid’s closest relative.[/quote]
There was a case study from April/ May last year that showed someone had caught covid twice, different strains, so yes we have known from an early stage that infection with covid can happen multiple times.

The details of long term immunity - whether we have to give jabs yearly etc, - are of course still being worked out as we are still dealing with a relatively novel pathogen.

@LarsErickssong

My local NHS trust said in their weekly update yesterday that deaths/ITU beds have fallen dramatically for over 85's in the past week which they expect to be due to the vaccine and more age groups will follow in the coming weeks.

In this age group, this surely is indicative of a reduction in cases in care homes, and the cared for. We know that 30% of cases have been in care homes, 30% in hospitals, so neither of those will be exclusively from lockdown, as those demographics have essentially been in lockdown/shielded all year. I don't know, just hopeful I guess.

@BigWoollyJumpers yes I was saying that to back up that vaccines seem to be starting to have an effect.

Some of the papers seem to show that antibody levels increase significantly after the second dose of vaccine. Whilst one dose may provide neutralising levels of activity I suspect we might see more effects of the vaccines on transmission once people have had their second dose. After one dose we should start to see effects on hospitalisations and deaths though.

@Barnicus

Did Israel not do it properly - give a first vaccine then the second one in the correct 3 week timeframe?

Whereas we are waiting 12 weeks.

The Oxford trial data showed that the vaccine actually works better with a 12 week gap than a three week one.

We are seeing a positive effect from vaccines. Death rates in the over 80’s are falling faster than any group .. given that 80% of covid deaths are in the over 80’s, that’s huge. It clearly is working.

my understanding is that while the vaccine reduces the impact of the infection on the individual it doesn't effect transmission or incidences of infection so don't see why they would be monitoring this seems odd to me.

That’s not correct. Until recently there was a lack of evidence on whether the vaccine reduced transmission - mainly because that’s not what the trials were set up to show.

Recent data suggests a significant reduction in transmission, but it’s early data.

People have become very confused between ‘may not/we don’t know yet, or by how much if it does’ and ‘definitely doesn’t’.

@freezingcoldsnow sorry you found this rude. But honestly there has been load sof scaremongering and people trying to put people off getting the vaccine. If I'd thought yiu were trying to actually fo that I would have been way less restrained.

I actually think with something this serious it is perfectly acceptable to gently challenge people on the impact their statement or questions make.

[quote Okokokbear]@freezingcoldsnow sorry you found this rude. But honestly there has been load sof scaremongering and people trying to put people off getting the vaccine. If I'd thought yiu were trying to actually fo that I would have been way less restrained.

I actually think with something this serious it is perfectly acceptable to gently challenge people on the impact their statement or questions make.[/quote]
I've already been vaccinated - just after Xmas so I have a vested interest in understanding about vaccine effects 6/7 weeks down the line. Don't assume people are trying to put others off vaccination. What a low opinion to have? And don't assume I must be a bit thick to not realise what you think is obvious. I was interested in the article and wanted a discussion. Everyone else has posted interesting thoughts. If you don't like the repetition of topic, scroll on.

RosieLemonade

I am starting to think the vaccinations were just a decoy to make us think there was away out of this. In reality I think that will be in lockdown for the rest of this year at least.”

Why do you think that?

@MoirasRoses

We are seeing a positive effect from vaccines. Death rates in the over 80’s are falling faster than any group .. given that 80% of covid deaths are in the over 80’s, that’s huge. It clearly is working.

Yes that's very true. In my hospital we've hardly had anyone admitted in this age range so it's not a cohort I'm familiar with but it's interesting to see it is showing a change.

@MoirasRoses

We are seeing a positive effect from vaccines. Death rates in the over 80’s are falling faster than any group .. given that 80% of covid deaths are in the over 80’s, that’s huge. It clearly is working.

That’s great

Rosie so you think Feb 22 will be no plan?

Many of the older people already vaccinated were staying at home anyway, so the decrease in infection rates in these groups may not be as large, but the decrease in death rates should be more considerable (as their risk of death was so much higher).

Decreases in general infection rates won't be seen until all age groups are vaccinated (and will rise again if restrictions are lifted before under-50s are vaccinated).