Possible stupid question

[Goingferalonfurlough]

Re the vaccines.
Currently approximately 16 million people have had the first dose of a vaccine and almost half a million have had the first and second dose.
What happens when people become due their 2nd dose? Does the rate of 1st vaccination take a massive hit? I’m
Assuming most vaccination centres are working at capacity so how would they double that amount (to complete the second doses and continue 1st vaccination at the current rate)?

it will take a huge hit - they can't double the rate of vaccinations. Can see they might get to the "all the at risk groups" and then seriously reduce the first jabs to do the second jabs - they daren't risk leaving then longer than 12 weeks

possible stupid answer

I don't recall the details, but Nadhim Zahawi was talking about it today and it all made sense. It's not going to be a problem & they're more likely to be ahead of schedule.

There should be more vaccination supply coming on stream in the coming months and many of the centres are not at capacity in terms of staffing and space etc. It will slow down a bit but likely not too much.

The FT did a graphic on second doses (attached) but it assumed the same supply each week, if/when supply increases then obviously the numbers would change and even more could be done...

It's not a stupid question! I think everyone's crossing their fingers slightly that, by then, they'll have ramped up vaccine supply sufficiently that they can manage that and still keep rolling out new doses.

(I'm more worried about how they're going to manage to get everyone the correct second vaccine, given how often some sites have been chopping and changing vaccine types.)

Vaccine supply is getting better of the ones we have plus moderna is coming on stream

It came up in conversation with a friend today. She’s having her first vaccine tomorrow and according to that calculator that was knocking about at one point mine is theoretically due in about 12 weeks. She is having her jab at our local medical centre and presumably so would I be. Our local centre is very much running at capacity so in 12 weeks who would they prioritise? Her for a second dose in case the first one is then rendered useless, or me who hasn’t had one at all?

I've seen a similar graphic to the one posted by @CoffeeandCroissant.

It suggests that all of groups 1-9 will have had their first jab by the end of March, so that in April the focus will be on delivering second doses.

I have also heard that delivery will be ramped as more supplies come on stream, so there will be capacity for some first jabs in April, as well as all the second ones.

I’ve worked 3 different vaccine centres so far, and although busy, none was working to capacity and had unbooked slots.

I’m also waiting for training to administer the vaccine, as are thousands of others, so once everyone is online and through the system, there will be 1000s and 1000s of extra vaccinators.

Mass centres have yet to open but once they do, numbers vaccinated every day will shoot up, esp if run 24/7 which is being debated, so if keep on current track, it is doable but is relying a huge amount on volunteers like me

There are more vaccination sites to open, plus increased vaccine availability and many vaccination centres have more capacity than they’re currently using: the theory is this will absorb the increased demand once the second doses come into play. Remains to be seen if this will happen smoothly of course.

It probably will take a hit, but capacity is so great that even with some slowing of the rate of first injections, we will still be getting through the adult population quickly (or should I say 'at pace'?)

They are hoping that younger, less at risk people will be more prepared to use the massive hubs than those more vulnerable who rightly need to be cautious and keep off public transport.

The centres aren’t working at capacity. Many of them are virtually empty.

Lots of centres are opening all the time, they didn’t all open on the first day of vaccinations. Also the centre closest to me operating for a few GPs is only open 2-3 days per week based on when they get vaccine deliveries, so are nowhere close to capacity.

I've been wondering about this too OP, especially in respect of people who've had 'spare' vaccines. The first vaccine might have been a spare but now they must have their second in 12 weeks time and presumably that won't be a 'spare'.

I assume there is confidence in supply (I think centres and staffing is easier to predict with certainty) or there would have been less willingness to use spares in this way.

Stephen Prowys said at last pressed they can do 1 million vaccinations a day due to capacity if supply can be acquired.

So I would hope they can keep increasing the daily amount and that increase because the second dose.

I have noticed there seems to be a drop in the number of people vaccinated when we should be ramping it up
Presume this is down to supply ? It is amazing we have vaccinated the elderly but apart from healthcare workers we have not vaccinated those that are out and about working ect

Quite a few people I know they have been to vaccination centres have said they’re definitely not full.

@rosie1959 There’s a drop in vaccine supply this week, but it’s expected to pick up again next week.

[quote CavernousScream]@rosie1959 There’s a drop in vaccine supply this week, but it’s expected to pick up again next week.[/quote]
Thank you for that information

In theory the second jabs should be slightly more efficient with a lower non-attendance rate. My anecdotal experience as part of a hospital staff vaccination push was that they held a lot of walk-in clinics so second jabs will actually be scheduled and less prone to peaks and dips throughout a clinic session generally meaning their time can better scheduled.