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The mystery of India's plummeting COVID cases

58 replies

Frequentflier · 15/02/2021 13:12

I know people may not care, but the mystery of India's recovery from COVID is being studied by UK and US scientists as well, for tips on how to manage it here. Interesting article on this. They have left out the closure of borders- even to its own citizens- quarantine, and tests at borders, which I think played a part. www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases

OP posts:
Delatron · 15/02/2021 14:34

Thanks @JS87 that makes sense as to why we aren’t testing for t-cells then.

HesterShaw1 · 15/02/2021 14:34

@Literallyfedup

Indians are used to grave diseases and worst viral infection than covid. For them covid is a mild thing and they don't even get tested. I think repeated infections over the years have given them good immunity and a general attitude of 'meh' towards covid.
I heard the same of an African country too, possibly Nigeria. That they see Covid as an old white person's disease
brownet · 15/02/2021 14:41

I read an article a few weeks ago that covid is having less of an impact on some countries that you would expect to struggle because of vitamin 2, much younger population. India life expectancy is 69 vs Uk of 81 so as pp said less medications & care to keep you going. They also think there may be some natural resistance built up from SARS in some populations.

itsgettingwierd · 15/02/2021 14:43

@Delatron

I find it interesting that we are still focusing on antibodies rather than looking more in to t-cells.

T-cells from SARS have been shown to last 15 years.... so it may not just all be about antibodies and therefore less alarming if they wane over time.

I think testing for t-cells is more expensive though.

That's interesting - I didn't know that.

Thanks for sharing.

brownet · 15/02/2021 14:49

That they see Covid as an old white person's disease

Old white mans disease as men are far more likely to suffer badly & die.

Apparently though India bucks this trend & more women die. They think perhaps because more of the elderly are women in the first place, more likely to be ignored in terms of healthcare & more exposed to virus due to more malnutrition & caring expectations.

Devlesko · 15/02/2021 16:01

It will be due to the Police thrashing people with canes for being out of their homes and the other barbaric scenes easy enough to find.
I was absolutely appalled to see children beaten and men forced to get on their kness for a thrashing.
I'm not advocating violence of course, but many countries have taken it seriously not like the UK.

MargaretThursday · 15/02/2021 16:23

You may say only one wave for India, but you then need to be aware that by 1st June 2020 they were getting 7-8k cases a day and they are still getting over 10k cases a day, so they've had 8.5 months in the one wave so far.

TulipsDaffodils · 15/02/2021 16:31

On a programme about the Great Plague recently they said the Plague liked warm weather but not cold weather so it died down in winter, whereas the flu and covid like cold not hot weather. The levels were pretty low where I am in July/August in the SE England and we did have some quite warm weather. It was over 30 for a number of days

Duggeehugs82 · 15/02/2021 16:36

My husband works with a lot of people in india and lot of his team have now or have had covid ,they just dont have it officially, as they are told not to test.

TulipsDaffodils · 15/02/2021 16:40

That's interesting. I know Tanzania is claiming zero covid when that's not really the case www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-55900680

HalfPastThree · 15/02/2021 17:10

India had some of the highest seroprevalence in the world - some of the studies were showing over 50% had antibodies. Most people have probably had it by now.

For whatever reason it doesn’t seem to be as deadly in India as in Europe and the Americas.

I think a similar thing happened in Nigeria and Kenya - maybe even milder.

MarshaBradyo · 15/02/2021 17:15

@HalfPastThree

India had some of the highest seroprevalence in the world - some of the studies were showing over 50% had antibodies. Most people have probably had it by now.

For whatever reason it doesn’t seem to be as deadly in India as in Europe and the Americas.

I think a similar thing happened in Nigeria and Kenya - maybe even milder.

Age a big factor comparing those
BrownFootStool · 15/02/2021 17:34

The idea that compliance to masks and distancing is high in India just isn't true. Once out of the first lockdown, many people were straight back to normal, no masks, no distancing etc. Everything is pretty much open there except schools. My friends have even been going clubbing!

It also doesn't mention that most schools haven't gone back since last March. That could play a big part. Many schools have been going back this month, it will be interesting to see if things change as a result.

Pinkmarsh · 15/02/2021 23:46

@BrownFootStool - looking at their charts it didn’t really take off there until June. Our own figures practically flat lined over the summer. I wonder if they’ll have a second wave like everywhere else.

ExpulsoCorona · 16/02/2021 01:26

Schools haven't reopened there yet, it's been almost a year. My mum was there on holiday in March 2020 and rushed back here when they were closing their borders. She was shocked that people here were not wearing masks and were going about their normal business with public transport and shops so busy in the week before our first lockdown was announced, she said people there were wearing masks and seemed a bit more cautious. Not surprising really, they share a border with China.

My relatives who caught it mildly there were prescribed antivirals, antibiotics, high dose vitamins D, C and Zinc.

I have relatives who were admitted to hospital with oxygen sats of 95% for observation.

They are treating it completely differently there.

Understandingnotignorance · 16/02/2021 01:33

When it first happened in March last year they closed borders immediately. Groceries were delivered to households and people in hazmats sprayed and sanitised roads and houses. It is a surprise with such a dense population that it hasn't spread like other countries. I wonder if its a combination of diet which contains many naturally antibacterial and antiviral ingredients in addition to the vitamin d exposure. But then Australia has had much lower rates too..

StarCat2020 · 16/02/2021 01:38

You then need to be aware that by 1st June 2020 they were getting 7-8k cases a day and they are still getting over 10k cases a day, so they've had 8.5 months in the one wave so far
The population is over 1 billion though

grassisjeweled · 16/02/2021 01:40

Younger population, healthier diets?

TravellingTilbury · 16/02/2021 01:43

@Duggeehugs82

My husband works with a lot of people in india and lot of his team have now or have had covid ,they just dont have it officially, as they are told not to test.
Quite. Our figures would look very different if we didn't test. And we'd have fewer people unnecessarily self-isolating.

I can't be bothered to look it up but studies show that there is little evidence that there is asymptomatic spread. This obsession with testing asymptomatic people is a problem. In my opinion. Usually unpopular Smile.

We don't keep testing for the flu. The flu can be deadly - to young and old and everyone in between. We offer an optional vaccine. If we are poorly we keep away from others.

TravellingTilbury · 16/02/2021 02:03

I think it's really good to notice that India is an outlier, but it makes me smile reading the suggestions about why - it reminds me of the reading opposite threads last March - why China, why Italy? One poster suggested Italy's rates could be higher because they kissed more etc (I lurked and wondered the same thing at the time). But it was just the virus and it spread everywhere.

India healthy? It's the diabetic 'capital of the world' according to this study:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377123716301137

I would suggest that India is an outlier because they don't test so much: they don't have so many false positives and they don't have deaths reclassified as covid-19 just because it was within 28 days of a positive test. Their cases/deaths are probably based on diagnosis of symptoms - how ours were until the end of August (if you could to see a GP etc, I would suggest that the UK cases/deaths were underreported in the 'first wave').

The testing is the problem, it has always been the problem. (It's part of signal detection theory where you have four results - hits, misses ('false negatives') false alarms ('false positives') and correct rejections. It's covered in Masters level statistics at the very least and so there are lots of people who have studied this and know this. They are now being censored or slapped with bollocks fact checked articles. Covid is a real problem worldwide but the false positives have caused problems in some countries. This is common knowledge in stats/psychology circles but Drosten is part of the problem because his poorly designed test was allowed to be rushed through principia-scientific.com/christian-drosten-the-fraud-behind-covid-19-pcr-testing/ Stupid thing is, the actual pandemic and the general fear was enough. Mucking around was case numbers on the back of a test (with no diagnosis) was asking for trouble.

TravellingTilbury · 16/02/2021 02:06

Expulso, agree - treated like a virus so given early treatments. This is what we should be doing here.

TravellingTilbury · 16/02/2021 02:18

sorry for the other link re: Christian Drosten, this might explain the problem better: uncoverdc.com/2020/12/03/ten-fatal-errors-scientists-attack-paper-that-established-global-pcr-driven-lockdown/

winteroakpress.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/the-scientific-fraud-by-prof.-christian-drosten-10.7.20.pages_.pdf

His work has caused a lot of bother within the scientific community.

PinkyParrot · 16/02/2021 02:57

Life expectancy in India is 68 - surely explains a lot. And not much obesity. I'm not sure where to find uk stats of deaths by age.

NiceGerbil · 16/02/2021 03:05

Not RTFT

they have s population skewed a lot towards younger people which probably explains a lot of it.

Plus it's got a billion people over a massive area including remote so with the best will in the world, hard to track.

Apples and oranges. Same as all the stuff about new Zealand etc.