Suspect that 8th March school return will also see the end of "bubbles" and their subsequent bursts?

[BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz]

By 8th March most (if not all) elderly and vulnerable will have had at least one jab and so will have significantly less risk of suffering if they catch covid.

Therefore I suspect that this school return date will also include a removal of "bubbles". If most of the at-risk population are soon to be in a situation where their risk of hospitalization is practically zero, does it actually matter if people are carrying/incubating/displaying symptoms of covid?

Probably best to wait and see what is announced than trying to guess expert advice and subsequent political decisions.

Uncontrolled spread increases the risk of new variants?

Once all of the at risk population are vaccinated this will be the case. However I dont think they all will be, by the 8th March. I suppose it depends what you could as "at risk" but they would not have vaccinated the clinically vulnerable (group 6) or over 50s or very overweight/obese people by then. So that still leaves a big chunk of society which are at risk of being hospitalised. And a lot of those will be parents of school aged kids.

Once the only people unvaccinated are healthy, under 40s without weight problems then the bubble system (and hopefully, other restrictions) would not be needed.

If most of the at-risk population are soon to be in a situation where their risk of hospitalization is practically zero, does it actually matter if people are carrying/incubating/displaying symptoms of covid?

I would say yes, it matters a lot, as other people outside of that group can be massively and negatively affected by it.

@frozendaisy

Probably best to wait and see what is announced than trying to guess expert advice and subsequent political decisions.

I agree, why the endless discussion of things we can't know, why not just wait and see? Is it not exhausting to be spending mental energy on stuff that you have no influence on and can take no action on?

No one knows anything more than you do

I don't think it will be the end of bubbles for a long time yet

Whose risk of hospitalisation is practically zero? This is pretty much wrong for every age group going, isn't it?

Would you willingly sit in a classroom with numerous positive Covid cases for 6 hours a day?
Before Christmas my youngest class had to close, 14 children and 2 adults ended up testing positive. With the children only 1 was very ill (asymptotic at the time but was in hospital twice over new year period when they were no longer positive but with classic post Covid symptoms) about 6 had mildish symptoms, the rest had no symptoms. Apparently both adults (both under 50) had flu like symptoms and one didn't return to school until late January.

Not another ridiculous thread about schools.

@BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz

By 8th March most (if not all) elderly and vulnerable will have had at least one jab and so will have significantly less risk of suffering if they catch covid.

Therefore I suspect that this school return date will also include a removal of "bubbles". If most of the at-risk population are soon to be in a situation where their risk of hospitalization is practically zero, does it actually matter if people are carrying/incubating/displaying symptoms of covid?

Groups 1-4 will have mainly had their first vaccination. Group 5 have only just been added.

Group 6 have not been called, this is a large group of vulnerable adults, most of whom are of working age. Many school staff and parents of school aged children are in this large group.

They haven't been vaccinated yet and certainly won't have passed the 3 weeks since vaccination mark either.

Why has the rhetoric on vulnerable groups changed in the most recent weeks? The government and media, and many MN and social media posters, now only see groups 1-4 are being the important groups. As someone who is Cv it has been interesting to see how this has changed the closer we get to easing restrictions.

Groups 5-9 no longer appear to no longer be of consideration.

Oh here we go again ....

I think the self-isolation rules for those displaying no symptoms will have to be removed, not just in schools but more generally soon. It's not realistic to expect well people to comply with missing education or work long-term.

My year 6 DD had to self-isolate for 2 weeks last term due to a positive case in her class. She stayed well. You could argue it reduced the chance of asymptomatic transmission... except the head insisted attendance was mandatory for my other two children in two different bubbles in the school. Who she shares a bedroom with, spends all her time with outside of school. If she'd had Covid and didn't know they'd have caught it and taken it back in. Utterly pointless her being out of the classroom those two weeks.

I can’t see “bubbles” or no need to isolate be ending anytime soon. If government adopts such an approach it’ll be suicidal! Just because the vulnerable may have had 1 of 2 doses and hopefully the death rate will decrease plenty others become unwell with COVID and then there is long COVID. Also if cases are allowed to rise unchecked the risk of mutations grow and so far the mutations have made the virus more transmissible and possibly with the south African strain more deadly. Scottish scientists have advised their government to implement the 2m rule in secondary schools and where possible in primary and secondary school transport. This would mean measures in schools would be increased not decreased. Take New Zealand locking down Auckland for 3 positive cases and potentially we could have 100s or 1000s circulating if the government adopted your thinking op!

Multiple scientists have explained why vaccines are not the silver bullet people think they are and yet still multiple posters don't seem to understand.

In Wales KS1 are going back from 22nd Feb, and they are going back into the previous bubble. No mixing allowed at all between bubbles.

I hope not. Ds and nedically vulnerable children like him, wont be vaccinated until the end of the year at the earliest....should we just keep children at high risk home until then?

I hope not and I also don’t think it will happen . They have stressed about restrictions and social distancing for the foreseeable , no school bubbles will mean close contacts not being easily identified. In light of more variants occurring if transmission is high , I would hope the government would not be this silly.

While I do think that there is going to be a point in the not too distant future when bubbles, isolating and even testing is going to be phased out, I'm not expecting that to happen until after everybody has been offered a vaccine. Personally I would expect it to start happening some time over winter term though. Although we will probably see fewer bubbles bursting anyway during summer term as more and more are vaccinated (or have immunity from infection) so fewer and fewer people have symptoms or reason to get tested

I find your last paragraph totally disgusting. I'm cev and won't have had my 2nd vaccination by 8th March. I had 5 classes sent home out of 6 due to positive cases. This was when I was not told to shield. So yes to me it will matter if my pupils are displaying and carrying the virus.

I think we are a long way from that. I’d be surprised if it was before September.

I think either early May once groups 5-9 have been vaccinated and it’s taken effect or Sept once all adults have been vaccinated.

does it actually matter if people are carrying/incubating/displaying symptoms of covid?
I suppose it might matter to you OP if there are few teachers and other staff actually in school due to having Covid?

I’d be surprised if bubbles have stopped by this time next year. I can’t see them ending next month.

@BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz

By 8th March most (if not all) elderly and vulnerable will have had at least one jab and so will have significantly less risk of suffering if they catch covid.

Therefore I suspect that this school return date will also include a removal of "bubbles". If most of the at-risk population are soon to be in a situation where their risk of hospitalization is practically zero, does it actually matter if people are carrying/incubating/displaying symptoms of covid?

90% of hospital patients with Covid are under 70, so not covered by the top 4 categories. DH T1 diabetic aged 53, and could be quite unwell if he caught it, so no, not all vulnerable at all will be covered by 8th March

Do you have a link for the 90% of hospitalizations being under 70 please @Poppyliveshere ?

All I can see is this which suggests about 77k out of the 362k overall hospital admissions in England have been over 85 - so about 20% of those who've been in hospital have been 85+. A further 152,000 (so 45% ish?) have been 65-84. I find it shocking if it's changed that much recently.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England