Will cases going up matter as much with vaccinations?

[MonsterMash2210]

One things I am trying to establish in my mind is how safe opening up and easing restrictions will be since we now have vaccinations rolling out.

Everything I read about the vaccines seems to be quite positive. We have a (surprisingly) successful vaccine program. They appear to offer some protection against known variants. They appear to offer some reduction in transmission. They also reduce the severity of the disease.

So, (please do correct me if I am wrong) I would expect given the above that even if we do have an explosion in cases that it wouldn’t necessarily be the case that we would have an explosion in hospitals and death?

I am just hearing so much conflict in regards to this. The above makes sense to me but I am not an expert in science so admit I may be wrong.

You still need to test widely to monitor any further mutations of the virus as it comes under evolutionary pressure to try and evade a partially vaccinated population and to detect any variants from abroad. Genome sequencing is done from test samples and the UK is a world leader at this. If cases are lower you can sequence a higher proportion of them to more quickly monitor any changes. Denmark are aiming to sequence all their test samples in the near future for this reason.

What matters most in my opinion is that it stops being a possibly fatal illness, and vaccination is the major part of doing that.

Two interesting interviews with experts - on variants, vaccinations and opening up:

www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91122

www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5-amp?

Yes, because the virus mutates to try to find a pathway.

If over a certain % of society is vaccinated, there are no viable pathways and our immunity protects others.

If too few of society is vaccinated, mutations can be problematic and can render the vaccine less effective.

What we don’t want, is huge outbreaks of virus, during the early days of our vaccination programme.

if we see lots of people with the SA variant ending up in hospital, then we can reassess. But I do worry that it might be too late then

Ya think?

Just listening to a scientist on BBC talking about Israel - hospitalisations have actually gone up recently in the part of the population that hasn't been vaccinated yet.

Did you post this on another thread too? I just replied there too. ‘Gone up’ in what way? We don’t expect too many vaccinated people to end up in hospital. That’s the point of vaccinating.

Change in age distribution of hospital patients, Israel:
mobile.twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1360264448582295552

Change in cases and critically ill, Israel:
mobile.twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1360966354803843074

Not sure why there would be a drop in cases, but a rise in critically ill in age 54 and under though, unless it's because of the time difference/lag ? (ie: cases were still rising when those critically ill were infected but are falling now, so current cases down but current severely ill up).

54 & under:
35% less cases
20% more critically ill

nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/02/why-are-cases-rising-in-israel-the-most-vaccinated-country.html

I’m just seeing percentages and distribution, actual figures would probably be more helpful. Having a higher proportion of critically ill patients in the unvaccinated age group makes sense but that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a significant rise in the number of patients in that group.