We are going to have to live with covid

[Cloudsurfing]

Thank goodness the government have acknowledged this. Hancock says it will become a virus we live with, like flu. Once the vaccine and treatments have done their job of bringing down hospitalisation, and cases are under control, we will get on with everything again this year.

We aren’t going for zero covid, and all the doomers who say we will be like this for years are most likely wrong!

What is the acceptable number of covid deaths? What is the acceptable number of flu deaths?

Somewhere the government is deciding this, it isn't random.

If covid illnesses/deaths are X10 on flu, which I have read as an estimate, every winter the NHS will break.

Or the government will privatise it.

Or they'll invest heavily (dream on).

Ffs I’m not a covid denier - I know it’s not fucking flu and well done for mentioning long covid - you get a full house!

The original musing is that the government are recognising that zero covid isn’t possible and we are going to have to give with it.

I am agreeing that we have a lot of deaths from other things and we just get on with life.
I took my flu death google from here - www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html%3famp

Clearly excess deaths and the NHS in crisis is not a new thing. Unfortunately for this country people have been so terrified by the narrative of the government (including those disgusting “look into their eyes” campaign) that I think we are going to struggle to get some people to move to a personal risk based approach.

The original musing is that the government are recognising that zero covid isn’t possible and we are going to have to give with it.

Zero covid is of course possible, the government are choosing not to. They want us to stop thinking about covid, so rather than fix it, their best political strategy is to move us past it. This isn't a decision made for the good of the country, an elimination strategy would be far better. But this is the better strategy politically, be sure asking the electorate to help solve a problem created by the government is electoral suicide. The only option for the Tories is denial and another gamble we don't get variant of real concern.

@PracticingPerson How so? Everything I’ve read about zero covid as a strategy it seems to be an impossible feat given we’re an international hub? (Not an arsey question at all btw)

[quote Allmyarseandpeggymartin]@PracticingPerson How so? Everything I’ve read about zero covid as a strategy it seems to be an impossible feat given we’re an international hub? (Not an arsey question at all btw)[/quote]
I think it was misnamed originally, and people just haven't engaged with the real meaning. It is not an expectation of zero cases ever, it is an attempt to manage it 'to the lowest target level including if possible, zero'. NZ has a zero covid strategy, it doesn't mean they will have zero cases forever (they have an outbreak of three today I see).

It is possible, in any country, to decide to try to have less covid next month than you have this month. You don't have to be in full lockdown to achieve this once you are at a manageable level (which UK likely would be by end of April).

The opposite is 'fuck it, we can't do anything, take your chances'. That's clearly not true is it - we could do all sorts of things. Societies make choices.

I do not include schools closed as part of lockdown btw. That is separate - we were locked down in November with schools open.

There are going to be other long term changes from this.

Like architecture- people will want homes with one or two offices now. Only having open plan living space will be less popular.

Home schooling rates will increase.

The poverty/ attainment gap will increase having a long term effect on socio economic mobility.

In house buying size will become more important than location. There will be more demand for houses further from cities/ good transport links. People will want more access to more outside space eg gardens and local parks/ walkways.

Car use and public transport use will decrease. Fewer people will die of respiratory illness from the consequent cleaner air ( currently 40k people in the UK die from air pollution every year!)

There will be fewer deaths/ injuries from car accidents.

These things will be a new normal but they will be so subtle that we may not particularly notice and they won't be sudden enough to make the news.

Apologies @Flaxmeadow I thought it was unfair that you had been accused of saying something you didn’t and I’m heartily sick of people being told that they love lockdown. I thought my post was clearly so far over the top that it was obviously satire, but I suppose it says something about the kind of responses that you have had that you took it at face value. I hope it didn’t cause you any stress. Time is very difficult to get across in the internet and obviously my humour didn’t translate very well. Apologies again.

Tone, not time

@PracticingPerson

The original musing is that the government are recognising that zero covid isn’t possible and we are going to have to give with it.

Zero covid is of course possible, the government are choosing not to. They want us to stop thinking about covid, so rather than fix it, their best political strategy is to move us past it. This isn't a decision made for the good of the country, an elimination strategy would be far better. But this is the better strategy politically, be sure asking the electorate to help solve a problem created by the government is electoral suicide. The only option for the Tories is denial and another gamble we don't get variant of real concern.

How can we eliminate it?

People still don't understand that covid is not flu. Do you actually read the research on this? You do realise people in their 30s and 40s die in hospital but also very healthy people get long covid. This doesn't happen with flu!

Erm it can and does happen. It's unlikely (just like with covid!) But it can happen.

As someone who has serious lasting problems from glandular fever I caught at 18, it really pisses me off when people make out only covid can floor you for years.

Swine flu was the pandemic that never happened. The officials all thought it was going to be bad but the death rate was pretty small in the end and hospitalizations were more than manageable.

And yet, at 19 I contracted it, spent three weeks in hospital and have a life long neurological condition that I have to manage with medication every day.

And that was all with a disease that had an incredibly small death rate compared to Covid and a much, much lower natural r number.

I want to open up society, I want the economy to recover and kids to get back to school but I want the drs and scientists and other much smarter people than me to be confident that our NHS capacity will remain steady and that the death rate is much lower than it has been. This is all possible via vaccines, treatments etc. But we need the evidence before we lift all restrictions and become overrun again as we did after Summer 2020

How can we eliminate it?

The same way as from the beginning - test trace isolate wherever you find cases so you eliminate spread.

With vaccines + TTI + sequencing + responsive border care, eliminating cases and limiting spread will be much easier going forwards.

We won't get rid of covid as a virus, that is not elimination it is eradication and impossible.

"Zero Covid was never a real option. It's endemic. It's going to be here forever. Which is one of the reasons the NZ response may not work out well in the long run, unless they are very, very careful about opening up their borders."

@CuriousaboutSamphire not sure what you mean. What about improvements in therapeutics and vaccinations? You know that New Zealanders can get vaccinated too?

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Currently we aren't living with it. We're mostly hiding from it.

If "hiding from it" this year has led to 100,000 + deaths from this new disease, what would "living with it" look like?

If covid illnesses/deaths are X10 on flu, which I have read as an estimate, every winter the NHS will break.

That was before the vaccine. I imagine the death rate will drop to the same as flu levels with the vaccines. Flu deaths would also be much higher without a vaccine.

People still don't understand that covid is not flu. Do you actually read the research on this? You do realise people in their 30s and 40s die in hospital but also very healthy people get long covid. This doesn't happen with flu!

Well I don't know what research you've read but it doesn't appear to very reliable. Young healthy people do die of flu, I was very nearly one of them aged 39 - 2 weeks in hospital. I do wish people wouldn't keep posting made up shite as fact.

That was before the vaccine. I imagine the death rate will drop to the same as flu levels with the vaccines. Flu deaths would also be much higher without a vaccine.

^This. I've always thought that people were too ready to insist that Covid was worse than flu. It may be. But it wasn't possible to compare the two before we had the vaccine.

I think long Covid is different from flu followed by CVS, though. I've had both and the CVS was nothing like long Covid. With long Covid, the debilitating symptoms keep coming back after 'false dawns'. With CVS, I was just exhausted but didn't have flu symptoms.

But that's just my experience, obviously.

"3rd paragraph - I thought it was more like 15k? But yes, strange how no one bats an eyelid as you say over 15k dead per annum by flu. Wonder if they will with say 15k annum dead with covid as well. My guess is very much yes. So flu deaths doesnt freak people out, but same number of deaths with covid, will."

Not sure @lightand why you say no one bats an eyelid? Many people get flu jabs each year. Public health pays a lot of attention to flu and its mutations as do epidemiologists

It just so happens that a SARS virus is very different to flu

The problem is that there are still too many people who don't understand what flu really is. They think it's only a bad cold. It really isn't. Hence the number of people who are offered flu vaccines on the NHS. And not just elderly people; my DH had asthma and has the flu jab every year. You can pay for it privately at pharmacies as well, which I do now.

The reason why there has been a huge public health issue with Covid is because until now there hasn't been a vaccine. There is now, and this will mean that our lives will be able to get back to something like normal.

How can we eliminate it?

@TrustTheGeneGenie we can learn from those who have driven it to the lowest possible levels and managed the pandemic far better than us.

Ultimately people won't live like this forever. People are weighing up the effects of lockdown to the effects of Covid.

We could argue until were blue in the face how Covid is not the same as the flu.
How long Covid can have effects in younger ages. How it may mutate into something deadlier (though we will get booster jabs).

After a year of lockdowns and false promises by the government, the majority have had enough. People will take their chance now and are weighing things up.
Fir example, My mother in law would not see our son for 4 month in the March lockdown in fear he was a carrier etc and was incredibly anxious.
Now she will see him. "I'd rather take my chance against Covid than not see my grandson".
The anxiety and sadness not seeing DS was a lot higher than her fear of Covid which she may not or may not get, or she may or may not be hospitalized, she may or may not die.
The certainty of anxiety and sadness of not seeing her grandson outweighed a virus that could possibly hospitalise her.

This is what people are weighing up in various scenarios regarding their family, businesses and mental health ...and its beginning to shift peoples opinions, and the government will know.

The reason why there has been a huge public health issue with Covid is because until now there hasn't been a vaccine. There is now, and this will mean that our lives will be able to get back to something like normal.

This.

I can't believe some people think that social distancing and lockdowns could possibly be the 'new normal' as if neither of these things bring huge economic cost which is totally unsustainable.

Does anyone stop and think what state the country would have been in now if it wasn't for the furlough scheme?

@Nellodee
Apologies Flaxmeadow I thought it was unfair that you had been accused of saying something you didn’t and I’m heartily sick of people being told that they love lockdown. I thought my post was clearly so far over the top that it was obviously satire, but I suppose it says something about the kind of responses that you have had that you took it at face value. I hope it didn’t cause you any stress. Time is very difficult to get across in the internet and obviously my humour didn’t translate very well. Apologies again

No worries. I did think a while later that I had misunderstood and was about to say so today. Not sure why I didn't fully realise it was you, who I've never seen say a bad word about anyone. I should have read the post properly before rushing to reply

BTW I'm still in awe of your spectacular debunking of the "cheese in the coffee" meme.

Glad you saw my post and it's cleared up

Let’s see what happens when the kids go back to school before everyone starts booking holidays.