Is there something they are not telling us...

[Thoughtsfortheday]

When they announced the start of this lock down, I though the advisers, scientists, Borris were very positive, it coincided with the huge roll out of the vaccine which was/is obviously very good news, I felt the over all message was positive “it’s just for a short time and then most things will be back to normal” type thing...

However I can’t get over, as we’re coming to the planned end of lock down the shift in positivity and what a gloomy picture seems to be painted...

Possibility of no holidays, uk included, no real map of schools returning, there was even news last night that this might last until all adults are vaccinated, the prognosis just seems to be getting worse by that day.

When will this ever end...

Loving the carpet analogies.

I definitely just think they are being careful because they want this to be the last lockdown. There’s no point in reopening too early just for cases to take back off again and then have another lockdown. If we can get cases low, head into warmer weather and get as many people as possible vaccinated then we’ve got a real chance of normality coming and being able to track and trace every case.

I wonder if they are worried that the Kent variant has acquired the SA/Brazil mutation that makes it potentially escape the vaccine.

This means it’s much worse than the SA one because it’s more transmissible and It might escape vaccine. Maybe they realise they need to really get levels low to stop this variant from occurring. So they won’t be able to come out of lockdown anytime soon. The positive numbers might have to be lower than they previously thought

But yes I think something is going on and I am more worried about the new new Kent strain than the SA one .

It’s just that they can’t say much atm until all data is there. Feb 22

Waiting is hard though. Plus media leap on smallest thing as a news vacuum almost. So we get contradictory headlines and a lot of noise over not much.

@Florelei

I definitely just think they are being careful because they want this to be the last lockdown. There’s no point in reopening too early just for cases to take back off again and then have another lockdown. If we can get cases low, head into warmer weather and get as many people as possible vaccinated then we’ve got a real chance of normality coming and being able to track and trace every case.

That’s not how it works though. Even with zero cases unless we barricade the borders we are still going to be at risk of lockdowns. In fact we’re probably in a holding pattern right now, open back up mid-spring lockdown mid-autumn. Rinse and repeat.

It takes a special kind of idiot to look at infection rates in November and not learn the lesson of lifting lockdowns too early or without enough information.

The vaccine will have an impact but it won’t work all by itself and it won’t work at 25% uptake rates. It is going to take time to learn what the public health impact is. Being realistic that might take more than an annual cycle .

There is lots of ways we can fuck up the impact of vaccination. Now is not the time to fall back on the strategy of hoping for the best whilst ignoring very obvious warning signs.

We won’t keep cases low but won’t have to after vaccination.

I doubt we’ll have another lock down. Even Neil F said last one and he’s on a par with the gloomier predictions.

From what I’ve read the vaccines against the new variants don’t prevent mild/moderate illness but that means they do prevent severe illness and death (data pending obviously).

Tbh that’s good enough and we would have taken that as a win a few months ago. It’s a blow from what we thought we had but it’s still good enough to ease some restrictions on its own once we have enough people vaccinated. Plus the developers all seem to be confident existing vaccines can be tweaked to work against the new variants.

From where I’m sitting it looks like the biggest hurdle is physically getting vaccines into people.

I think it's a deliberate change in communication policy. Last year we were constantly told that things were short term, we'd be able to do lots of things in a couple of weeks' time etc etc etc. Generally followed by the government having to U Turn once people had got their hopes up.

This year, the government is very deliberately not giving false hope, I assume because people will then be pleasantly surprised if things are not as bad as the worst doom and gloom case.

I actually much prefer the current style. We're adults and should be given clear messages, not jollied along.

@Cornettoninja

From what I’ve read the vaccines against the new variants don’t prevent mild/moderate illness but that means they do prevent severe illness and death (data pending obviously).

Tbh that’s good enough and we would have taken that as a win a few months ago. It’s a blow from what we thought we had but it’s still good enough to ease some restrictions on its own once we have enough people vaccinated. Plus the developers all seem to be confident existing vaccines can be tweaked to work against the new variants.

From where I’m sitting it looks like the biggest hurdle is physically getting vaccines into people.

It’s a semi win. If the virus is still in circulation even with the vaccine suppressing severe illness and death, it’s only a matter of time before it figures out how to evade that. It’s incredibly clever, if it were to give people vitality and super powers instead of death we would be heralding it’s creator as a genius for its transmissibility.

Boris over-promised in relation to Christmas and it had disastrous consequences. Thousands of extra deaths.

I'm hoping that he has finally learnt his lesson.

I think they’re just being a bit more grown up about it. Not promising things they know they might not be able to keep to. Learning from past mistakes. Wanting this to be the last time so making sure it is.

At least I hope...... It is Boris we’re talking about here.

@Thewiseoneincognito, I get where you’re coming from but the virus isn’t sentient, there’s also a good possibility a variant circulating in a vaccinated population will crowd out other variants meaning there’s no pressure on it to mutate. Anything is possible.

I think that’s more of the issue, the unknown about the variants.

Did they not realise how quickly the Kent variant was spreading until two months later? By then numbers were rising at a rapid pace. What if they opened the economy up too quickly again and there was another sneaky, bastard variant, waiting in the wings. We’d just be back to square one.

@JoanOfArc8

I think that’s more of the issue, the unknown about the variants.

Did they not realise how quickly the Kent variant was spreading until two months later? By then numbers were rising at a rapid pace. What if they opened the economy up too quickly again and there was another sneaky, bastard variant, waiting in the wings. We’d just be back to square one.

On that basis we will remain in lockdown and restrictions forever.

Something to look forward too :)

@jasjas1973 but that’s where the vaccine roll out comes into play, hopefully.

It’s a semi win. If the virus is still in circulation even with the vaccine suppressing severe illness and death, it’s only a matter of time before it figures out how to evade that. It’s incredibly clever, if it were to give people vitality and super powers instead of death we would be heralding it’s creator as a genius for its transmissibility.
The virus isnt "figuring out" anything, and it isn't aiming to kill people. Viruses which pass between people and give them minimal symptoms are some of the most prolific - because they're passed around more as people feel only mildly unwell. Being deadly is actually a bad thing for a virus, as people will stay in and not give it the opportunity to pass on.
A more deadly variant does not have an evolutionary advantage, the less deadly variant would be more likely to thrive.

I think it's a deliberate change in communication policy. Last year we were constantly told that things were short term, we'd be able to do lots of things in a couple of weeks' time etc etc etc.

We were not told this at all. Infact we were told that we would probably have rolling lockdowns for some time and that there would be no quick solutions

It is an ongoing situation. It is a new virus and no one is 100% sure how the virus, and any new strains, will behave in the future. Data is constantly reviewed and so strategy adjusted.

Yes the uncertainty is difficult to deal with but they do not have a crystal ball and the virus did not come with an instruction manual

It seems to be two steps forward one step backwards for the foreseeable. Which is pretty much what they are telling us plus a dose of no-one really knows when, and we like and need certainties. Of one thing we can be sure any sane soul wants this shit to end like the day before yesterday and then some.

It’s a semi win. If the virus is still in circulation even with the vaccine suppressing severe illness and death, it’s only a matter of time before it figures out how to evade that. It’s incredibly clever, if it were to give people vitality and super powers instead of death we would be heralding it’s creator as a genius for its transmissibility.

So it'll be tweaked each year in the same way as the flu vaccine, which is also nowhere near 100% efficient.

@Flaxmeadow

I think it's a deliberate change in communication policy. Last year we were constantly told that things were short term, we'd be able to do lots of things in a couple of weeks' time etc etc etc.

We were not told this at all. Infact we were told that we would probably have rolling lockdowns for some time and that there would be no quick solutions

It is an ongoing situation. It is a new virus and no one is 100% sure how the virus, and any new strains, will behave in the future. Data is constantly reviewed and so strategy adjusted.

Yes the uncertainty is difficult to deal with but they do not have a crystal ball and the virus did not come with an instruction manual

So we weren't told that we could meet up Christmas? Or that it was ok for schools to reopen in January? And Boris never said such things as "we can turn the tide in 12 weeks?"

False hope is damaging and destabilizing it's better to stay in eyore mode ....gloomy but stable

So we weren't told that we could meet up Christmas?
Or that it was ok for schools to reopen in January?
And Boris never said such things as "we can turn the tide in 12 weeks?

You would have to show me the full and exact quotes. Also under what context, for example what was said before the new strain was found to be spreading rapidly and what was said after.

This is a changing situation. What was allowable at one point in time can change as new data is reviewed

BJ has a permanently haunted look. All his bluster and upbeat manner has gone

Agreed. It was all 'hurrah! the vaccine is here! we're saved! normal life will resume!' accompanied by much flag waving and brass bands. Now it's more a lone person in an anorak waving a flag that belongs on the top of a sandcastle and I am struggling to see what has changed.

It is probably the fact that they want compliance until vaccines have really kicked in. But it does make me uneasy.

A problem I think is that Boris might say something like...
"hopefully, if we all stick within the guidelines, we might be able to lift some restrictions for Xmas"

Some press will then have screaming headlines saying...
"Boris Says Restrictions Will Be Lifted At Xmas!!!"