If the vaccines don’t stop the spread....

[TwilightSkies]

And just make symptoms less severe...why do we have to stay locked up until EVERYONE is vaccinated?
Surely the vast, vast majority of under 60’s will only get the virus very mildly so keeping us in lockdown when there is no evidence that vaccines actually curb the spread, doesnt make much sense?

A) yes it does slow transmission - detailed evidence still coming in but clear that it does work at least to some extent
B) even “mild” cases can be very nasty and disruptive to society if it sweeps through a population of forty somethings
C) no we don’t have to stay locked up until everyone is vaccinated - literally nobody apart from the odd scaremongering weirdo on these threads has said so. Once bands 1-5 have had their first jab take effect then the schools can reopen. Once bands 1-9 have had their first jab take effect (which means that the NHS is pretty much protected) then I would (and in fact have) bet my holiday budget on there being large scale release of other restrictions. In between those two points we’ll see specific types of loosening up.

There may well be some restrictions on some activities and international after mid May, depending on data, but of course we won’t be “locked up” as we are now, because frankly, even if the vaccines were shown not to work, pressure from the back benches will mean the government has to move to plan B.

The more the virus is allowed to run through the community, the more likely it is to mutate. We’ve seen this happen already. The danger now is that it’ll be mutating within an environment where some people have been vaccinated so the worry is that the mutations that will arise will be more effective against the vaccine. They are therefore trying to outrun the mutations, as it were, getting as many vaccinated in the community whilst everyone is still in lockdown and in theory the transmission rate is lower. Also the vaccines do reduce transmission, they just don’t have the concrete numbers and reams of evidence that scientists need in order to be able to say that conclusively. However, it’s what vaccines do and there is no reason to suggest that these ones will be any different

Even “mild” cases can be very nasty and disruptive to society if it sweeps through a population of forty somethings.

^This. Some of these cases develop into Long Covid, which has impacted upon some people for many months (I'm one of these). It's obviously a minority of cases, but there's no way of knowing who is at risk; a lot of sufferers were young and fit (30s and 40s) before catching Covid.

It really isn't just about deaths.

But is it about preventing long COVID? Because as awful as this would be, it wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS?

I don’t really understand either. I thought these heavy handed restrictions on our personal liberty were to protect the NHS? So once the vulnerable and definitely everyone over 50 are vaccinated (May/June?) where is the risk to the hospitals?

Why do we think this summer they will be more overwhelmed than last summer? My doctor friend at a London hospital said from April onwards last year they were very quiet. They peaked Feb/March.

Why will this year be worse? So many more have had it plus vaccinations. Then add in the seasonality....

@TheChip, the more the virus circulates, the faster it mutates. Our immune systems won't keep up and neither will the science behind the vaccines. Chris Whitty covered this in one of his talks.

We need the younger population to get on board with vaccinations because otherwise when the party holidays start up again we will have another global crisis.

If we don't vaccinate everyone then we are in danger of a lock down every winter. Why children don't get infected is to do with T Cell responses and other things. The mutation of the varient circulating is better at evading the T Cells and the immune response. If it gets better and better, which some Viruses do, then we will see hospitalisation in all age groups. Assaid there's a big difference in our natural immune responses and what the vaccine does.

@Delatron, it's about stopping a dangerous mutation that could be a real threat to us all. It's a two fold attack. Vaccination and restrictions. If you think of every infection feeding the virus, then you can see why we have to stop feeding it.

Some Long Covid patients were in hospital, though, and for several weeks.

But I was thinking more about the fact that a lot of Long Covid patients have ended up on long-term sick leave and may not be able to go back to work. This will potentially impact upon the economy.

But I thought viruses always mutate?

Long Covid be part of economic factors. Cost of keeping it low far outweighs benefit.

We will lift but we do have SA variant so data on that will have impact. Border control more about variant means coming in.

@TwilightSkies

And just make symptoms less severe...why do we have to stay locked up until EVERYONE is vaccinated? Surely the vast, vast majority of under 60’s will only get the virus very mildly so keeping us in lockdown when there is no evidence that vaccines actually curb the spread, doesnt make much sense?

We don’t have to stay locked up till everyone is vaccinated but we do need to reduce the chances of people contracting covid whilst the vaccinations roll out if we want healthcare capacity. If the vaccines we have ‘only’ reduce severe illness to moderate/mild then covid is much less of a burden on the infrastructure. Mild to moderate cases don’t require multiple days spent in hospital and can recover at home. I don’t think it’s that hard to understand tbh.

@TheChip by your logic why do we bother with any vaccination since only a small percentage of people will be severely ill/die. We’d save a fortune on the MMR...

What restrictions would people like to see to stop long covid then? Shall we keep the kids off school and hammer the economy for this?

@Ponoka7 Yes that's true re the variants. The so-called South African and Brazilian mutations are particularly cause for concern right now.

I meant to type Long Covid won’t be part of economic consideration

Cost of keeping low far outweighs benefit

ME isn’t taken in to account for ‘economic factors’ or cancer or post viral fatigue....why is long covid more important?

Yes @MarshaBradyo they won’t keep restrictions on the economy for long Covid no matter how much people want them to..

@Delatron

No, I'm not saying that. That would be disastrous for the economy and for our children (I have two school-aged DDs myself). It's a reason for pushing ahead with the vaccine programme, that's what I meant.

@Delatron

What restrictions would people like to see to stop long covid then? Shall we keep the kids off school and hammer the economy for this?

Once the cases are under control? Hygiene measures including face masks , restrictions on gathering numbers, distancing in place in work spaces/public spaces, isolation of suspected cases and contacts of confirmed cases, restrictions on international travel, decent T&T... nothing new or shocking.

Preventing infection is the only way to prevent long covid until we know that the vaccinations also minimise the damage. It all ties together surely?

I expect the vaccines to bee wonderful, both in terms of transmissions and disease.
Even if they're only half as great as I expect we need to start living out lives again. Yes there will remain a risk from covid and to the NHS which we will need to manage. We cannot lock down until all risk is eliminated. I am sick of "yes but not everyone can have the vaccine"
No but the vast majority of those most likely to be hospitalised an ddie will have been vaccinated. So now let's live our lives.

@TwilightSkies

And just make symptoms less severe...why do we have to stay locked up until EVERYONE is vaccinated? Surely the vast, vast majority of under 60’s will only get the virus very mildly so keeping us in lockdown when there is no evidence that vaccines actually curb the spread, doesnt make much sense?

Saying there's no evidence now is just a fact. There is never any evidence for anything until you collect it, but of course we expect vaccines to help.

The anti-vaxxers will continue to spread the claims that lack of evidence is evidence of lack of effect, but they are always with us. Now that IS incurable.

But if Covid will be around forever then won’t long Covid be?

Anyway yes we’re doing amazingly with the vaccinations program and let’s hope we see the pressure on the hospitals ease very soon.

Yes @StealthPolarBear exactly!

But if Covid will be around forever then won’t long Covid be?

Yes, that's true. But that's why the vaccine is so important. It looks like there will have to be annual boosters, as happens with flu.

I would willingly take a booster every year to protect myself from going through this again.

At peak we had about 30,000 people with COVID in hospital. Around 15,000 of these were of working age. If we allow the virus to grow unchecked in the working age group only and consider it to be stopped absolutely in the over 65s, it would only need to double once to fill our hospitals to capacity again, this time with younger people only. Now these are very crude approximations, but the important thing to remember is that although younger people are less likely to be hospitalised, a tiny percentage of an enormous number can still be an enormous number itself.

The last week of December, a quarter of Covid hospital admissions were for people under the age of 55. At that time, the rate of positive tests was 400 in 100,000.

So you only need 4 times that - a mere 1.2% of the population - to be infected simultaneously, for the hospitals to be overwhelmed with under 55s.

Cross posted with Nellodee!