Based on 2020 is jun/Jul end of lockdown??

[3asAbird]

I was amazed to see some covid stats from last year.
June 2020 we opened non essential retail.
July 2020 hospitality and beauty
Think gyms were August

We had infections below 1k a day.!
Makes me wonder if we could have eradicated it if we kept on longer.
Or would winter, education returning and new varients have meant cases would have risen as lockdown 1 was the strictest.
I don't think we should have allowed foreign travel last year.

If we open up Easter and put in no extra safety measure then will cases just shoot up again.

I think many of us year more freedom spring and summer.
Restrictions seemed easier in summer .
As a family of 6 rule of 6 is crap for us.
I worry about this next autumn winter i don't want to be in cycle of regular lockdowns and disrupted educational.

Are cases,deaths and hospitalisation key measures lift any restrictions?
Does the vaccine situation by itself top 9 vulnerable groups done by end April allow us open up sooner?

We have had certain mps saying cases coming down let's open up when at same time 2 weeks ago cases were as high as what led to nov lockdown.
They keep telling is its too high.
What sort numbers or even a range is acceptable?

Last week shocked how uk doing compared other countries but wonder with new varients rest Europe catch up in the end.
In France they can't ban family meeting in each others housing.

Dh is non essential retail so last 2 lockdown having impact family finances

We have a vaccine now, in fact we have several so 2021 will play out very differently to 2020.

The vaccine and other treatments e.g. budesonide will drastically decrease hospital admissions, so the numbers won't rise as quickly as they did before

@ChocOrange1

The vaccine and other treatments e.g. budesonide will drastically decrease hospital admissions, so the numbers won't rise as quickly as they did before

But we being told new varients makes vaccines less effective. Also more transmissible so the r rate with new varient is higher and can spread more quickly and steeper in same way the original Kent varient did. Now with have Kent varient with new mutation in Bristol, Liverpool and Manchester.

Just trying to predict how how left of lockdown and restrictions
Case numbers seem be falling faster than I imagine as this lockdown different to March.
Government being seriously non committal right now what goal posts are.

Makes me wonder if we could have eradicated it if we kept on longer

I’ve wondered the same thing. Widespread testing wasn’t a ‘thing’ at the time though and we only had projections. Only people who were admitted to hospital were getting tested.

Case numbers seem be falling faster than I imagine as this lockdown different to March

Don’t forget we don’t know for certain how fast cases did actually fall in Spring 2020. Generally the measure used was fatalities and we know that deaths can lag a lot after initial infection,

None commital because predictions are very hard to get right

So lots of things could happen

The vaccine may be good enough against the variants or it may not
Vaccine evading variants may grow strongly or not
Supplies of vaccine , Ppe and covid treatment medication may be ok or not
What happens when kids go into school, it may be ok or may lead to R above 1
......

I am strongly hopeful for a summer at least as good as last year, but it's not a prediction

I agree with your post @midgedude. Better this than making promises to people they can’t/shouldn’t keep and us winding up in a worse situation (see lockdown 2).

There's other research going on that will prop up the vaccination programs. I was reading this article which looks at a AAT protein deficiency being a possible reason why White Europeans have been adversely affected. This protein can be artificially propped up. So there will be more solutions.

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But if case figures are falling faster than you imagine, the difference must be the effect of vaccination, surely? Vaccination is the one factor which might lead to a faster reduction in cases now than was the case in the first lockdown. All the other differences - more children in schools, more sectors open, the temparature presently being twenty degrees lower than it was then - would lead to a slower reduction in cases than last spring.

If we are lucky case numbers will be down to 1k by May. So May seems the first realistic date for general opening.

We can't really compare to last spring as we don't know how many cases we really had and the hospital figures were limited by capacity so even those won't reflect last spring

I don't think we will unlock until it us clear that hospitals won't be overwhelmed. Hopefully that will become apparent in the next few weeks as the vaccination programme becomes widespread. I would hope April but am.prepared for May.

@FreeFallingFree I think it’s to early to see a significant impact on cases from vaccinations yet (both number of people who’ve had their first jab or the time it takes to start offering protection).

My uneducated casual observation is that cases are falling at a similar rate they were at the end of lockdown 2.

So are you basing your prediction on ‘because it will have been a year since we last opened up’ ?

We didn’t have vaccines last year. We are being told that they MAY not be AS effective against new strains (not that they aren’t) but should still very much prevent hospitalisation and death in case of new strains.

The Kent strain is still very much the dominant one here though and the vaccines work against that one.

Wait for the road map on 22nd Feb. I think we will unlock quicker than most think we will.

Gradual unlocking from 8th March is my prediction.
They’ll start with schools and perhaps non-essential retail, wait three weeks and check the numbers. Then it’ll be parts of the hospitality industry and gyms etc - beauty salons... I think that by Easter most things will be open and rule of 6 indoor and outdoor with social distancing.

@Cornettoninja

Vaccination started in mid December and really kicked off in first week in Jan. By mid-Jan over 4 million people had received their first dose. It's early days, but coming up to a month later we are at a place where we would expect to see that take effect.

To me the reduction in cases, hospitalisations and deaths looks very different and much steeper than during the second lockdown. Part of that will be down to schools remaining open in Nov/Dec but again the weather is much worse now.

Hopefully the charts will attach, they're from the Covid dashboard.

"But we being told new varients makes vaccines less effective."
Less effective is not ineffective. Given that originally we had no idea how effective the vaccine would be against the original strain and it would have been a huge success if it had done only half what it appears to do in terms of reducing severity of disease and reducing rates of transmission, I don't get this argument.
Something that seems like a miracle is slightly less miraculous against the new strains. So?

@Wherediditgo

So are you basing your prediction on ‘because it will have been a year since we last opened up’ ?

We didn’t have vaccines last year. We are being told that they MAY not be AS effective against new strains (not that they aren’t) but should still very much prevent hospitalisation and death in case of new strains.

The Kent strain is still very much the dominant one here though and the vaccines work against that one.

Wait for the road map on 22nd Feb. I think we will unlock quicker than most think we will.

No I'm basing my opinion on low deaths and cases. Not exactly sure what hospital admissions were back then in June/July my guess low. Obviously those July stats were based on old bog standard varient. The new Spanish varient appeared August and Sept from British tourists. Our nhs is always under pressure jan and feb pre covid. Last year march/ April were warm weather spring yet we stills had high cases as 1st wave. We have been told a few times the old measures we used hands face space and tiers worked to contain old varient but doesn't work with the new.. Even with tiers the ones that were tier 2 quickly rose and they failed grasp people travelled between areas ie Bristol was tier 3 and Bath was tier 2.

I just worry pressure from mps we open up too soon again.

I'm happy deal with schools on rotas and small class size.
Maybe gatherings upto 10 as we family of 6..
To be able see family again my parents should be vaccinated although Wales so different rules and different time table.
Kids sports and dance activities to start again small groups socially distanced.
Pubs and restaurants reopened all felt much safer there than ina supermarket.
We seem to be holding non essential, hospitality and beauty to higher standard than supermarket who have given up caring managing numbers , social distancing

Non essential and hospitality on the whole had lot less daily footfall than a super market...

Just fed up punishing the same businesses and sectors.
Carehome, hospitals and education always been big spreaders so opening up schools with no extra safety measures first will be sad if cases shoot up again as they vectors for transmission and mass gatherings therefore delaying businesses from opening.
Furlough end on April so everyone's speculative that must be Easter.
Also Boris sort if said to placate us over Broken promises of Christmas that Easter was the new Christmas and we can see family then.
Many seen to think March 8th schools defiantly open and that because Wales and Scotland opening up some schools its the same yet England's much bigger, high population density and higher cases.

@FreeFallingFree, I’m not saying there’s no impact just that, particularly in the case of infections, it’s not going to impact significantly on the wider population for a while yet. Certainly not to the level of using it as a barometer to reopen things. Getting the levels of infection down and keeping them low is still important because the unvaccinated population is still larger than the vaccinated.

That balance will continue to tip in our favour but reopening needs to be balanced against the unvaccinated for a while longer.

We’re at a sensitive point where we need to be wary of vaccinations effectiveness against emerging variants and actively prevent the spread amongst the general population because even moderate cases are putting too much pressure on the NHS (and businesses re: staff sickness). It’s a balancing act.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great position considering four months ago we didn’t have vaccinations as an option at all. I’m still gobsmacked by the amazing speed they’ve been produced and the pure luck that what have so many successful ones. Back in spring 2020 the talk was very cautious optimism that we might get one or two from the upcoming trials.

Hospital admissions and deaths are what we gave to watch more closely than cases. If cases are high but almost everyone has a mild illness then there is no need to stay locked down. It isn't a reasonable proposition to eradicate a disease that will more than likely become endemic. Maybe we could have eradicated it earlier on if we had done things differently but not now.

If cases are high but almost everyone has a mild illness then there is no need to stay locked down

I agree but at the moment cases are the best predictor of what hospital capacity is going to be needed. There are significant numbers of 40-65 year olds still requiring hospital treatment (who will recover with treatment) and we’re not vaccinating that group in significant numbers just yet.

To start reopening we need case numbers lower so we have time to vaccinate that group on a background of less chance of infection. If we’re not going to wait for wider vaccination then we need to ensure that the opportunities for catching covid are minimal.

They're saying not to book domestic summer holidays. Given we were allowed holidays last year and this year we have a vaccine wtf is going on?

In case it's helpful, cases are dropping about 26% a week pretty consistently. You can then extrapolate (with fingers crossed).

@StealthPolarBear my thoughts exactly! What a joke ! This statement is keeping me from booking my vaccine slot right now. What's the point? Something not OK here if this is what they're saying.

@StealthPolarBear

They're saying not to book domestic summer holidays. Given we were allowed holidays last year and this year we have a vaccine wtf is going on?

I agree its really odd messaging. I already concluded they know more than they letting on and drip feeding us information and contradictory messages.

I cancelled holiday last June with hoeseasons as was Wales and they dident open up until later and we meant to go early July.
In hindsight I wish we had gone then as clearly last July was a lot safer.
I moved the booking to this July using what I paid for Wales as deposit thinking cits self catered lodge same region July all be good.
Matt Hancock told gmb last month he already had holiday Cornwall booked and great British summer.
I was baffled last year when they allowed foreign travel rather than supporting British tourism as feel it was travel that maybe let these new varients in.

I didn't imagine Chris whitty himself as well as Boris say don't see family this Christmas wait until Easter until everyone's vaccinated

They already said they not aiming for covid elimination strategy and before vaccines were a miracle that would help us unlock since Xmas they changed their tune.
Been much less confident when asserting questions about vaccines.
I understand caution after 1st dose but both?
Thought results from Israel and phizer were encouraging about if it stopped transmission.
God knows when I get vaccinated fairly helathy 40 year old.

I know hospital admissions matter but patients in hospital longer.
Also many below 50 in icu and hospital too.
Cases help forecast admissions s and deaths as John van tams says its baked in.

Would we have fared better if we had sept circuit break like sage suggested?

This new bristol varient seems have them worried.
2 weeks surge testing will they road block the city or south west region?

I feel the risk domestic varinet mutation is more of a problem than south Africa or Brazil. Only 147 cases of south African know.

B117 Kent is already wide spread and most dominant strain and now its appears to have mutated in 3 large cities Bristol, Manchester and Liverpool.

I honestly don’t think there’s anything going on but an attempt to balance reopening against the vaccination programme.

Variants and mutations could scupper the vaccinations we have so there is a need to be cautious and we will only know how well vaccinations will work in real life conditions once we have a decent percentage fully vaccinated and a semi-normal society running. It’s a pretty high stakes stress test and there are no 100% certainties.

To start easing lockdown we need to have control of case numbers in the absence of mass vaccinations being completed. That’s the balance, we don’t want to lock down everyone until the most likely to need hospital are vaccinated so we need to reduce the chances of infection and the quickest way to do that is lockdown followed by slow easing out of it.

I think it expectations that are off here. There are no guarantees for the government to base their decisions on just educated guesses. It’s frustrating but solid answers simply don’t exist. There has been a lot of focus on the worst case scenario (death) when actually the next step from that is still bad news for wider society. It’s manageable but it’s not going to suddenly be all better in a couple of weeks. It never was going to be and that’s been made clear from the scientific and medical community since the start of all this.