So, there probably won't be a NZ or Australian virus mutation?

[megletthesecond]

Because they stopped covid in it's tracks?

The mutations will trickle out of countries who let it pass round the population?

Correct.

Viruses can only mutate as they reproduce. If no-one has the virus, the virus will not be reproducing.

Dr Fauci: "There is a fact that permeates virology, and that is: Viruses cannot mutate if they don't replicate."

It's a numbers game. The more viral replication and transmission you have, the more likely a variant is to appear and spread. So it could happen in a country where the amount of disease is very low, it's just far more likely in a country with high rates.

Feel like I wont be visiting USA for a good while then!

@Porcupineintherough

It's a numbers game. The more viral replication and transmission you have, the more likely a variant is to appear and spread. So it could happen in a country where the amount of disease is very low, it's just far more likely in a country with high rates.

This, but it’s not just about the likelihood of mutations in general.

The more mutations you have the more likely you are to eventually end up with a mutation that is advantageous to the virus.

It’s no co-incidence that the variants of concern originated in the UK, SA and Brazil. It is quite surprising one hasn't popped up in the US yet.

Also popped up in the countries that are good at genome sequencing (well the U.K. and S.A) coincidence? There will be more in other countries they just aren’t tracking. This also is to be expected with a virus so not the end of the world as the media makes out.

No there won’t be a NZ or Australia version. They will need to keep borders closed for a long time though.

del good point. Hancock said we were one of the best at it. It sounds fascinating

Yup yup as others have said mutations only occur when the virus replicates (ie when it is in a host like a human or mink)

Less infections, less mutations, less antigenic drift and therefore minimises chances of new variants emerging at such a fast speed

One of the (many) reasons why herd immunity and the great barrington declaration were so moronic

Yes @megletthesecond one thing that we’re really good at! Then we get penalised for having the ‘mutant U.K’ strain. It’s probably all over Europe but they don’t do the sequencing enough.
South Africa also very strong in this area.....

Well let's see if they can get through the winter over there without issues first.

There is still Covid in some Australian states: it's coming from travellers in quarantine.

Are NZ & Aus gonna require covid vaccination certificates for all future tourists I wonder.. .what about business people, engineers, sports persons, journalists, diplomats etc. - them too?

And yet I bet covid will still get back in eventually.

As echt said it’s already in the country. Mostly contained in the medi hotels, but there have been cases of it being transmitted to workers and then transmitted in the community. Australia has very good tracing and have managed to contain things fairly quickly when it does happen. ( not referring to the Melbourne outbreak last year, they made mistakes there and have learned from them it seems)

No there won’t be a NZ or Australia version. They will need to keep borders closed for a long time though

And what will happen when they open them?

"And what will happen when they open them?"

Being vaccinated could become a condition of entry.

@lightand

No there won’t be a NZ or Australia version. They will need to keep borders closed for a long time though

And what will happen when they open them?

They won’t open the borders until everyone who wants the vaccine has received it.

By then we should know how effective it’s been in other countries.

I think there will likely be a soft opening of the border with conditions attached to start with, maybe insisting on a negative test to travel and then further tests of arrival. Whilst still operating their track system with social distancing.

I think it will all be very cautious and careful when altering the border restrictions with changing information daily depending on covid stats.