B.1.1.7 UK variant

[independent98]

I have been reading up on the new variants and it seems that the UK variant is of most concerning.

Reading this makes me wonder whether it is right to send the kids back to school for the timebeing
arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/new-mutation-spotted-in-b-1-1-7-variants-spells-trouble-for-covid-vaccines/

What are your thoughts?

It's potentially concerning, but lots of uncertainty and lack of data at the moment. We really need a lot more information than what was gained from one small in vitro (lab) study of antibodies from only 5 (!) people.

A key difference between the Cambridge and US studies is that the US studies used the South African variant, whereas the Cambridge study introduced the E484K mutation into the UK variant (B117) and used this in their tests. This may indicate that the recent reports of the detection of this mutation in B117 should be of greater concern to UK health officials than the importation and subsequent circulation of the South African variant. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the above studies are based on very small sample numbers and any conclusions should be drawn with caution.
theconversation.com/amp/concerning-coronavirus-mutation-now-found-in-uk-variant-heres-what-you-need-to-know-153248

I thought the most concerning was the Brazilian one? Followed by the SA one.

I think there's still much uncertainty around.

The B.1.1.7 strain mutated from a person who was immunocompromised.
I am concerned that if the kids go back to school, the virus will mutate to a stonger super strain as we havent eradicated the virus.
Data wasn't available in Sep 2020 when the government said schools were safe but had known of the UK and South African variant prior to the reopening of schools and here we are in a third lockdown.
If the virus mutates further with the e484k spike protein, what will that mean for the vaccines?

I think any level of infection means it's ridiculous to send them back right now.

Transmission went through the roof again the minute unis and schools reopened but you know Boris and co are getting grief from Rishi so will repeat the same stupidity again.

Transmission went through the roof again the minute unis and schools reopened

Yet remained stable then started dropping at a similar rate we’re seeing now at the end lockdown 2 until we opened up into tiers. I don’t think it’s that clear cut.

@Tiktokersmiracle

I think any level of infection means it's ridiculous to send them back right now.

Transmission went through the roof again the minute unis and schools reopened but you know Boris and co are getting grief from Rishi so will repeat the same stupidity again.

Do you think we should wait until there are zero cases before sending schools back?

Are we thinking of sending children back? I think March 8th is the date we have been told we will be back at the earliest, my instinct says it will be Easter, and then a phased reopening l.

@ILookAtTheFloor

I thought the most concerning was the Brazilian one? Followed by the SA one.

I think there's still much uncertainty around.

The OP is referring to an additional mutation (E484K) of the UK variant which is also present in the variants first identified in Brazil and South Africa, but this occurred here independently of those.

Initial non peer reviewed and very preliminary data, based on very small numbers and done in a lab, suggests that maybe / possibly this new mutation makes the UK variant with E484K added even more resistant to the vaccines than the other two (SA, Brazil) variants. Hence the concern. But that doesn't necessarily mean the vaccines won't work at all, just that they might (maybe, noone really knows yet) be less effective.

But again, there is lots of uncertainty around this and to date only around 15 cases of the UK variant with E484K have been found in the whole country.

The U.K. strain is the most dominant strain of COVID atm however with the SA variant entering the UK I anticipate that this will be the dominant strain in the next 6 months and we will probably be in a 4th lockdown going through this all over again.

I don’t think it’ll be like when the kids went back last time, as we have a good vaccine now. That appears to help reduce transmission, as well as severity of symptoms.

I hope its no sooner than March 8th. The numbers have sharply fallen with schools closed - surprise surprise and as soon as they go back they will drive what ever is circulating.

Lissy - which teachers and parents can have this vaccine prior to 8th match?

Covid is never going to be eradicated, there will always be some transmission. We can't stay locked down until that point as it will never come. We wait until cases are low and vaccinations are having an impact then open up. March 8th is still weeks away, plenty of time for cases to drop further.

I haven’t read it but agree the E484K is the issue

Schools are open for most, and March 8 earliest. Vaccine going fast.

Aren’t!

However although the UK vaccination programme has started, people are only getting one shot then the second within 12 weeks even though the pharmaceutical companies advise that the vaccine is most effective if two shots is taken with 21-28 days. The vaccines do not stop people from getting covid, it's aim is to reduce the effects if one gets covid.
With the E484k, my understanding is that it increases the mutation rate within 2 weeks.
There is currently 4000 different strains of covid around the worid and as data is still relatively early, is it advisable for the kids to go back yet?

No they shouldn't. Not until after Easter at least. Not until G1-9 have had their first jab & time for ig to start working. Anything else is madness.

But he's being put under a. LOT of pressure, not helped by Scotland & wales saying they'll go back earlier (I think they'll both wind back on that).

No, until adults and vulnerable people/teens are vaccinated.

It may well still be March 8 even if people want later.

I anticipate that if schools open march 8th then we will have a increase in transmission cases over the summer.

The B.1.1.7 is the dominant strain at the moment during a lockdown, i suspect that if things open up and kids go back to school/unis are open etc then it will mutate even further.

How long would you keep them closed to most?

'My understanding, I suspect, I anticipate'

Do you have an agenda? Your language seems to imply you do.

The E484K variant of the B. 1.1.7. Kent variant isn't concerning health officials just yet. (Lets just call it the Liverpool Variant to avoid confusion between the other others). Its associated with a cluster at Liverpool Women's Hospital apparently from a funeral.

Health official in the area have said that ANYONE regardless of whether they meet the official criteria for testing in Liverpool, St Helens, the Liverpool City Region and Lancashire where it has been detected, if they are ill and concerned should just get tested. They aren't taking further precautions at this stage.

My guess from that is they think they largely have contact traced anyone they were concer

Sorry fingers slipped and posted too soon.

My guess from that is they think they largely have contact traced anyone they were concerned about and are monitoring the situation now.

Plus there isn't capacity to do wider door to door testing of everyone in those areas just yet.

I am hoping Johnson aims for the schools to go back end of march / straight after easter just to get on top of things so no nasty surprises around the corner.

No more lockdowns after this. And since they hope for no more tiers they need hospitals and cases to be right now even in hot spots (there are large parts of the Liverpool City Region / Lancashire still above 400 cases per 100,000 as well as a few elsewhere outside the NW).