Does risk of covid increase or decrease for unvaxed?

[namechange63524]

Probably a stupid question, but to those not eligible for vaccination before spring, does the risk of catching Covid increase or decrease? I have school aged kids and a one year old. I've assumed that once the main groups are vaccinated, schools will open up etc and hopefully weather will be better as well. However, it occurred to me that if virus is still transmissible (even if lesser so than without vax), then there are going to be a fuck ton of people walking around "assessing their own risk" and passing it on.

Does this put those of us unable to get vaccinated at a higher risk of catching it than there has been to date or will it even out given less transmissibility?

Sorry, should have said, those of us not in any group lists yet. I fully intend to get vaccinated once eligible.

This is the reason for caution opening up before all adults have been offered the jab. Which might be sooner than expected.

Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, and if there are major relaxations, those in lower groups will of course be at greater risk than during lockdown. How much greater risk depends on the amount of virus circulating in the community, how much the vaccine prevents transmission from those already vaccinated who still become infected, and how quickly the rest of the population is vaccinated. The emergence of new strains is a bit of a wild card.

Thanks. I know it will be more than in lockdown, I mean will it be more than before when no-one was vaccinated?

There's reports today that Ox/AZ at least reduces transmission significantly. So the more people who move into the 'less able to transmit' box the less disease will circulate.

We know restrictions reduce transmission. So the more these lighten, the more disease will circulate.

How those two factors will balance out is, I suspect, the subject of intense modelling!

I think there's going to be a tricky period where restrictions will have eased but there's a cohort of unprotected people really not keen on returning to the workplace/normal activity, because they personally are not yet protected.

I think there will be a very risky period before the vaccine rollout is finished.

Sadly our government don't really give a shit how many catch it, so expect them to unlock slightly too soon. Again.

I think they care quite a lot about vulnerable people catching it.

People who will be hospitalised or die.

Unfortunately others will catch it but the risk to those people will be very small.

I don't think they care about the people at all, I think they do care about the optics of an over run hospital system.

I agree, that’s their main issue.

But I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive

The risk of contracting the virus per day (or week or month) will go down for the unvaxed, compared to the current situation. But the problem is that if you do not have the vaccine, you have probably got years and years ahead of you when you are at risk of contracting the virus. We are probably not even going to begin vaccinating kids until early 2022, loads of parents will refuse to vaccinate their kids even then as they will see no risk, the virus will continue to swirl around in developing countries for years on end, and we cannot keep borders closed/quarantined indefinitely. If someone does not get vaccinated, their chance of contracting that virus at some point is going to be very high. I think anyone turning down the vaccine in the hope that they can "hide in the herd" is deluded, frankly.