Any scientifically minded/qualified folk about? Are we entering an age of pandemics?

[RickiTarr]

And if so why?

It seems to be an assumption that is underlying some conversation and journalism, but I may be wrong.

So I was thinking is it to do with globalisation? Or is it just a depressed mindset? Or wanting to be able to use the lessons learned this time?

Anyone able to authoritatively comment?

Anyone?

The main problem is that we are rapidly expanding into previously uninhabited areas which means that we're going to come into contact with new viruses at an increasing rate. Bats in particular are a major reservoir for viruses due to the way their immune systems work - they're believed to be the source of both Ebola and Covid.
Really we're already in the age of pandemics - in less than 20 years we've seen SARS1, SARS2 and swine flu pandemics along with large outbreaks of Ebola, Zika. The HIV, tuberculosis and malaria pandemics are also ongoing despite starting much earlier.

The amount of travel, densely populated areas and the way we manage animals does make it more likely that we’ll see more new diseases, yes.

However, we also have the best chance we’ve ever had in our history to use science to suppress them, both with vaccines and therapeutics, and by understanding how diseases spread.

So yes, but maybe they won’t all be ‘big ones’, even if they cause a lot of disruption. Also worth remembering that this one is pretty benign (I mean it’s shit, but in the grand scheme of things), in that it doesn’t affect children or young healthy people. The impact of a disease which did that would be much greater.

Ah, so there is something in it. Thanks @QueenStromba

That’s all very interesting, thanks. I had no idea bats were the source of Ebola, for example.

So what’s the answer? Do we just have to become more willing to do short term border closures? Contain outbreaks?

Forgive my brain picking. I’m never sure at the moment whether to read more widely about the pandemic and related issues or whether to cheer myself up with fiction and whimsy.

However, we also have the best chance we’ve ever had in our history to use science to suppress them, both with vaccines and therapeutics, and by understanding how diseases spread.

Yes, that’s been quite obvious even to the average woman in the street this time. That’s definitely a more cheerful thought.

Also worth remembering that this one is pretty benign (I mean it’s shit, but in the grand scheme of things), in that it doesn’t affect children or young healthy people. The impact of a disease which did that would be much greater.

Now I’m generally quite calm and pragmatic but it’s those kinds of thoughts that do make me shiver.

Light and shade, eh?

@QueenStromba is right. Let's not forget AIDS was also because of animal contagion. We're abusing their territory. Coronavirus is a softie virus, there are much worse ones

I agree with @grey12 - there's been a global pandemic on the cards for years but this isn't the big one. While we continue to encroach on uninhabited land and disturb their ecosystems we will continue to pay the price.

There’s an interesting doc on Netflix about the pandemic. Main takeaway is the need for fast action in notifying the WHO, shutting down and gathering accurate data fast.

Main takeaway for me was aside from the cultural challenges in some countries being open with this sort of thing, it’s possible countries reporting get slapped with trade/border blocks. Better that very temporarily than a global pandemic that seems to have been avoidable for COVID.

Really we're already in the age of pandemics

Yes, it's just that the U.K. thought "it doesn't happen to us."

One point though; more deadly air born or droplet born viruses tend to burn out more quickly, eg Ebola and SARS.

Though the issue with this one is that it's contagious before any symptoms start.

This will have a big impact on economic structures and how buildings are designed etc.

In a morbid way I wonder what kind of virus the worst kind of virus would be. Like would it be flu, a SARS type or something like Ebola...

Something like cholera?

Basically though, we've over populated the planet and this is what happens.

@MotherQueenXeno

In a morbid way I wonder what kind of virus the worst kind of virus would be. Like would it be flu, a SARS type or something like Ebola...

Ebola and cholera aside, flu/ sars / coronavirus type things appear to have different reactions in different people.

This is a fascinating article.

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/30/immunological-unicorn-the-australian-lab-growing-coronavirus-and-its-startling-discovery

@enjoyingscience

The amount of travel, densely populated areas and the way we manage animals does make it more likely that we’ll see more new diseases, yes.

However, we also have the best chance we’ve ever had in our history to use science to suppress them, both with vaccines and therapeutics, and by understanding how diseases spread.

So yes, but maybe they won’t all be ‘big ones’, even if they cause a lot of disruption. Also worth remembering that this one is pretty benign (I mean it’s shit, but in the grand scheme of things), in that it doesn’t affect children or young healthy people. The impact of a disease which did that would be much greater.

It isn’t pretty benign. Ok it doesn’t kill 50% of those who catch it, but it has hit a sweet spot of transmissibility and serious illness/death. It is transmissible before symptoms become evident. It causes enough serious illness to completely overwhelm even the most sophisticated healthcare systems. It is mutating and will continue to do so whilst there is still a significant amount of virus circulating in populations. We are likely going to be playing catch-up with vaccines until it is under control globally.

Also there are bound to be new variants and no one yet knows what
they will be like nor whether they can be dealt with.
Many countries are not able to deal with any pandemics at the moment
as they do not have the requisite hygiene resources/equipment.
This will curtail supply chains all over the world as well as travel.

@TrashedWarrior

Basically though, we've over populated the planet and this is what happens.

Don't think it has much to do with a overpopulation. Pandemic have always been around.

The problem nowadays is poor use and division of resources. How many people go hungry?!! How much food do YOU throw in the bin?! tbh as much as I try to use use use my leftovers some of it ends up in the bin. Our knowledge of agriculture is so good yet we don't apply it because of greediness. People are beginning to be more aware of the adverse effects of some much palm oil plantation. How many more crops are doing the same thing??!!!! And we don't know. And for these crops we keep invading wild forests and chopping down established trees and thus destroying the climate as well..... jiiii we're killing ourselves.......

this is a very unpopular opinion tbh but there is too much travel. it is too easy to hop on a plane and go somewhere. it's a disaster both for the environment and for public health reasons, as this past year has demonstrated.

@Pathetic32

this is a very unpopular opinion tbh but there is too much travel. it is too easy to hop on a plane and go somewhere. it's a disaster both for the environment and for public health reasons, as this past year has demonstrated.

Yes I was wondering about that and the apparent impossibility of grounding all planes for a short time.

I minimise my flying, though, so maybe I’m being genuinely naive about what’s possible.

I know the whole notion of closing our borders is politically sensitive but, again, surely we could have done more, faster, with better enforcement in that regard, for the temporary containment of the virus.

I fear we may be entering an era of viruses targeted at certain groups or populations

@grey12 I understand what you're saying but pandemics in the past have to a certain extent in some countries been tamed a lot by by modern medicine and hygiene. And didn't spread quite as far globally - as a pp mentioned, it's so much easier for more of the world to physically travel now than it was 70, 100 years ago.

Even roads, I remember visiting a well known part of Africa about 15 years ago that was building a good, much needed, road that is now very much a famous main useful road, along its coast. They were saying how much easier it would be for villages to be able to drive into the capital and work etc.

Intensive farming is providing more opportunities for viruses to jump species. We had chickens 30 years ago and I don't remember this constant shutting them up due to bird flu (as hens are at the mo.) unless we didn't know?! or is that a situation of better knowledge and communication?