Social distancing to last all year

[Santastealer]

The media this morning are reporting on a report given to government saying social distancing will need to be in place all year and rules remain until December.

But what then? What do they expect to be different by September?

Last August I was able to go on holiday with my family as a group of 8, are thy suggesting this year this won’t be possible? If not why was it ok last year when we didn’t have vaccines but this year it’s not ok when we do?

I’m thoroughly fed up of not being able to see my family and I need to feel an end point is in sight.

We need to encourage as many people as possible to have the vaccine. I notice there are quite a few people on MN who say they are refusing to have it. I understand if there are health reasons which make it difficult/impossible for them to have it, but if we have to stay with strict restrictions because a number of people refuse to have it just because, that will be a nightmare.

I think restrictions need to be eased cautiously, especially as there are still many vulnerable people who haven't had the second dose yet, but I do believe we will end up living with COVID like we do the flu, but that relies on a good uptake of the vaccine (and regularly if it has to be tweaked each year like the flu vaccine)

I can imagine not everything getting exactly back to normal, but we can't continue like this. It's just not sustainable. Schools have to open up to everyone, the arts have to return, we have to start seeing extended family. It's madness to think we can continue like we are now.

We have to build up the NHS as well, healthcare workers can't be expected to continue to work under such pressure.

Once my parents and vulnerable family members are vaccinated we will be seeing each other again. Indoors.

And if you become asymptomatic spreaders, so what, right? Others you infect can just fuck off.

Like the vulnerable in the third world can fuck off according to most on the WHO thread.
After reading that shitshow of grasping selfishness I am entirely impervious to guilt trips.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Some people think social distancing means standing far apart in a queue in shops.

It's not just that! It's no theatres, no gigs, booked slots, not visiting family, no adults setting foot in school, no school assemblies, no sports crowds, etc etc.

No, it doesn't necessarily mean either. What is usually actually said is 'some social distancing measures will still need to be in place,' It's a spectrum. 'Some' social distancing could be yes to travelling in uk but not to abroad yes to visiting family, no to large weddings/parties yes to pubs opening to pre-bookings in small groups, no to free for all christmas parties yes to participating in open air sports (tennis/golf), no to 80,000 people watching sport inside a stadium. could be yes to almost normal lives but we still have to wear masks in public

Basically NOBODY KNOWS AT THIS POINT! So what is speculating achieving?

I'm working on the basis that it's likely restrictions will be eased to some extent throughout 2021, so we definitely have more freedom than we do now (because I don't think either the economy or widespread obedience will survive for a whole year) but also not expecting things to be 'back to normal' with absolutely no measures in place even by December. Other than that I'll take it as it comes.

@lockdownalli

Please can I sign up for the Priti Patel thing?

Please do! We'll have enough mite to launch a cruise liner, but she's going in a dinghy!

@jabsinarms

Is this nightmare ever going to end? What is going to change in 2022 and beyond if vaccine uptake/effectiveness is as predicted in the report- won't there always be a number of people who will die from Covid? If 'last summer' is all we can hope for in terms of restrictions easing then that is a terrifying thought, last summer was crap.

So looking at the paper the article is about it looks like they’re assuming most under-50s won’t have been vaccinated with both doses until the end of this year, and that’s why they’re talking about measures continuing until then.

We’re going faster than that at the moment, plus have two new vaccines that should be coming through soon - and one of them is only single-dose. So looks like that’s quite a conservative assumption.

They also say they’re assuming vaccines are as effective at preventing all levels of disease at the same rate. So if they prevent 90% of people getting ill, then the 10% remaining are just as likely to get seriously ill as they would be if they weren’t vaccinated. But it looks like this is a worst-case prediction really - lots of vaccines work better at reducing severe cases even if you do get ill and while we don’t 100% know yet, it looks like the covid vaccines we have probably will too.

I also don’t see where they’ve controlled for how serious illness and death are affected by age? I’m sure they have, but it seems like that’s quite a big factor, because if you’re under 50 and healthy you already have a very very low chance of dying from the virus. So even if the vaccine only reduces 90% of deaths in that category, that takes it down to very very low numbers, it’s not the case that we can just say “90% effective against serious illness means 10% of people at risk of dying” when we’re taking about 25-year-olds in the same way we can for 90-year-olds.

I woke up this morning and thought I just cannot go on. I work in the NHS and am just totally done in right now. Probably doesn't help that I'm 60 and suffer from a medicated long term mental health problem.
My facebook page was full of crap from people who aren't having the vaccine for non scientifically researched reasons including a fair few work colleagues and I just thought I'd better not go back on facebook today or I'll totally let rip.
Just sick and tired of being locked up when I'm not at work and have not seen any family or friends since February last year. It's lonely and work is miserable and the tv is full of misery as well which drags you down even more.
Dreading going back to work tomorrow for yet more of the same.
If enough people do not have the vaccine this is just going to go on and on. I'm just grateful I can put food on the table and don't have any kids to home school. I cannot imagine how soul destroying that must be.

My summer will be the same as last summer. It was OK.

You were lucky if you went on holiday. Because it was not advised, or in some cases possible to go abroad, all the UK self catering properties in my price band (lower end of price band), went before I even looked at them. We didnt go anywhere. In fact I havent been outside my county for over a year.

I would like to think we would be permitted to go on holiday in the uk if our tiers allowed us to

Generally I can see we will be in tiers for up to 2 years.

I'd be happy with social distancing continuing for the rest of the year, providing we get a bit more freedom.

I was happy with the rule of 6. As a family of 5 it limited us visiting family, but it meant we could at least go out for something to eat or out for the day to do something other than watch TV and play board games.

Regardless of what we as individuals want and as much as Governments and modern medicine can legislate and treat. Diseases like Covid that reach the levels of a pandemic almost always take about two years to get to manageable levels or burn themselves out. When it became obvious that this was spreading rapidly and getting out of control world wide I thought this will take a couple of years.

I’m not a scientist just a social history nerd who has studied public health amongst other things and it’s impact on shaping society. Regardless of mistakes made and the obvious chasm between the wanting a hard lockdown and the I want to hug my Granny right now factions we are obviously in such a better place to fight this. Pandemics will always happen. My MIL said that this pandemic reminds her of being a child in WWII, the fear of the absolute unknown and decisions taken away from us. We are not used to any of this living in a liberal society.

If vaccine uptake/effectiveness is as predicted in the report- won't there always be a number of people who will die from Covid?

Since vaccines and human immune systems are rarely perfect, there'll always be people who die of Covid even if the take-up's 100% - but that's where we come up against the "nobody's ever allowed to die of anything" issue

Awful as deaths are for the nearest and dearest, as a society we'd better get used to rather more unless some really do think this can go on for ever

On a personal level most of my family live in Hong Kong and America, DH family live in London and mainland Europe so we have seen no one.

The Coronavirus Act 2020 runs for 2 years without the need to be renewed, until March 2022. I should imagine that with this government, they will make every bit of use of that, and I can see them looking to extend it for another year, with the "promise" that restrictions for that further year would be very limited.

Seems to be the way this government does things - ultra caution, biased in favour of restrictions, protecting their reputuations at all costs.

I went to Switzerland in the summer and the only obvious restrictions there were masks having to be worn on public transport. It felt a bit like (in my imagination) going from Soviet Russia to the West in the times of the Iron Curtain. Lakesides were crowded with families sunbathing and swimming and enjoying themselves, when here we were still banned from swimming pools and gyms and meeting in bigger groups than 8 outdoors.

I've no idea why the British population is so acquiescent about such stringent, long term rules. Many other European countries have quite a lot of protests about the infringements on civil liberties, here there is very little.

All those who refuse the vaccine maybe could all be rounded up and can live in a commune somewhere. I’m sure there must be an unused island off the coast of Scotland where we could settle them? They can then all share the virus amongst like minded people, letting the rest of us live normal lives.

I think there is a problem with the word vaccines and the perceived guarantees of protection as with other vaccines. when what we have is the worlds best scientists doing the best they can to control an ever changing virus. The fact we have vaccines that can dramatically reduce the serious effects in such an achievement in the time frame.

@Wankerchief

It wasn't ok last year. Most of us stayed at home because we knew how silly it was

Agree

And if you become asymptomatic spreaders, so what, right? Others you infect can just fuck off

Yes, in a word. I know you think you've nailed a bit of a gotcha with this poor attempt at guilt tripping. You haven't.

Of course I'm not going to worry about spreading something I don't know I have to people I don't know. I will certainly have done it before, and so will you. It is very likely that each and every one of us has spread a virus to a perfect stranger and killed someone along the chain of infection. Nobody was expected to wring their hands and feel terrible about this before.

People have sacrificed enough. Don't expect us to give up our lives and jobs and the roofs over our head for any longer, just so that people like you can kid themselves they are "safe".

Stay at home as long as you want with your yoga mat and your books. Just do not presume to tell the rest of us to do the same. It's the very definition of selfish.

I can’t do it

I'm surprised people don't expect there still to be SOME changes to life for a long time to come....months and possibly years......but that these will be far less than full lockdown.

It wouldn't be surprising if we can go on holiday in the Uk but there are limits in travelling abroa. It wouldn't be surprising if we can go out and meet friend, but numbers getting together B no inside place so like pubs are restricted. Mask wearing might continue in public I door space station org a long time. Life will largely resume with schools and workplaces open with a few extra precautions and no one will need to be isolated. What else did people expect reallY... point wherE E dry really friction aa suddenly lifted....not possible.

Boulshired

“I think there is a problem with the word vaccines and the perceived guarantees of protection as with other vaccines. when what we have is the worlds best scientists doing the best they can to control an ever changing virus. The fact we have vaccines that can dramatically reduce the serious effects in such an achievement in the time frame.“

Agree. I’ll happily take significantly reduced symptoms and far less chance of death!

Lots of people seem to have been surprised to learn that the annual ‘flu jabs typically hover around the 55% efficacy mark, too.

@flowers08

what is the point then? what is the end point here if the vaccines arent going to work and we wont achieve herd immunity because we are socially distancing?

might as well jump off the nearest cliff I suppose. and no that isnt me being over the top, that is genuinely how its starting to feel reading these threads

same , as far as im concerned once everybody is vaccinated then i dont see the need for all these restrictions , i wont be complying with anything anymore this bloody goverment and sage can go fuck themselves once the vaccines are all done , i dont want to live my life like this indefinately and yes these threads are depressing particularly when its comments from ppl who are seemingly quite happy with things the way they are and have no problem carrying on , and also believe the crap this goverment are telling us

@ineedaholidaynow

If they have to tweak the vaccine, does that mean those already vaccinated will ned another dose. Some people have now had the 2 doses.

Very few have had two doses yet, but one possibility is that it might be necessary for boosters in the Autumn (due to new variants) regardless of people having had 2 doses by then. mobile.twitter.com/TheGazmanRants/status/1355061370346205184

mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1355690006715621378

Also, trials are already being done on doses with two different vaccines, early results look promising:
biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.428665v1.full.pdf

So yes, it's possible people may need to be vaccinated with a booster, even if they have already had 2 doses.