www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/amp/
"Exclusive: Social distancing may have to remain in place all year.
Modelling suggests UK will suffer third huge spike in deaths unless vaccines cut Covid transmission significantly
Britain may not be able to abandon social distancing rules this year unless a vaccine proves to be 85 per cent effective at stopping transmission of coronavirus as well as severe illness, ministers have been warned.
Modelling commissioned by SPI-M, a subgroup of Sage, and passed to Downing Street suggests the UK will suffer a third huge spike in deaths unless inoculation cuts transmission significantly.
Currently, most experts think efficacy against transmission will be around 60 per cent but there is huge uncertainty.
The paper, produced by modellers at the University of Warwick, warns: "Only vaccines that offer high infection-blocking efficacy with high uptake in the general population allow relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without a huge surge in deaths.
It makes for grim reading and goes some way to explaining why Boris Johnson has been so reluctant in recent weeks to raise expectations of an end to lockdown.
It is understood that SPI-M's other modelling groups – including Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine – have reached similar conclusions. "The exact numbers differ, but there is a high degree of consensus", a source told The Telegraph.
The paper finds that even in a best case scenario, in which vaccines stop 85 per cent of transmission in those vaccinated, lockdown would have to be kept in place until the end of May to prevent another significant spike in deaths.
If Mr Johnson lifted the measures in mid-February – when ministers forecast that the top four priority groups will be vaccinated – the modelling suggests a third surge in infections and deaths, of a scale similar to last spring, would follow in April.
If vaccines are 85 per cent transmission blocking, deaths would peak at just under 1,000 a day. At 60 per cent efficacy, daily deaths would approach 1,500."
If the modelling is accurate then all we can do is get vaccinated and hope for a very high uptake of vaccines to hope they will be 85% effective. Hope for a May relaxation of restrictions but plan for a great Christmas 2021 and hope it can take place. No-one wants this, no Govt wants this and they will only social-distancing restrictions if they are necessary.
Experts believe the vaccines will only give 60% efficacy so why are we being told they give much higher efficacy? Who the heck is right? Maybe they will be 89% or more efficacious and we can get nearer to normal later in in the year?