When the vulnerable are vaccinated will we get to the point that people are catch/spread covid without isolating?

[DrMadelineMaxwell]

Like other diseases? We vaccinate all vulnerable and older people for flu, for example, to reduce the number of people who might catch it and die from it, but we don't isolate if someone gets the flu or impose other restrictions. (Totally not likening the flu to covid, just thinking of other diseases people are routinely vaccinated for).

They are saying that as more and more people are vaccinated, the restrictions can be raised. But there are people dying in the groups that are not targeted to be the initial groups.

Will we see a time where if younger people or kids in school people aren't made to isolate but let it rip because they aren't likely to be too ill or die from it? Or will self isolating and distancing remain but other restrictions all be able to open?

It is a good question indeed. The effects on transmission are still on the data collection phase, though not sure how reliable they will be while we are in lock down.
Without that data, it is not possible to decide.
My gues is that transmission will be reduced, as with many many other vaccines. So we will be lifting restrictions accordingly.
But I think it is very important that we all (including children) get vaccinated, as this is a new virus, and a pretty scary one.

We will continue with the need to SI until we have wrangled the numbers right down. Hospitals are still full. The numbers are down, but we still need them to go down even even further

Then it'll be back through the tiers, relaxing until it's 'rule of 6' with some hospitality open.

I expect we'll still need to SI if tested positive for ages to come. But if we can get the cases right down tyat's nit going to be a frequent embuggeration.

There are illnesses we are supposed to isolate for (chicken pox, measels, scarket fever etc) . We are supposed to isolate for 48 hours after vomitting or diorreah and 24 hours after a fever but a lot of people really dont follow that one.
But obviously only schools really enforce them. Employerd are traditionslly keen to have people in asap.
Also contacts dont isolate after exposure to those either.

I do wonder what will happen too. I think it would be nice to think its no longer socially ok to cough and splutter over your school friends whilst dosing up on calpol and the idea of fining ill chikdren vanishes.

A good question. I recently tested positive for flu & yet my GP has happily seen me a couple times in the surgery!

But then, something like chicken pox, the expectation is you do isolate until scabbed over. We were stuck in the house at least a week when DD caught it!

I also wonder if we’ll continue to need to be tested 🤷🏼‍♀️ Will I not be able to send DD to school with a cough in the future!? She asthma & coughs all winter usually. How will that work.. constantly testing her? It’s been hell this winter doing so. She’s so scared of the test 😣

@DrMadelineMaxwell

Like other diseases? We vaccinate all vulnerable and older people for flu, for example, to reduce the number of people who might catch it and die from it, but we don't isolate if someone gets the flu or impose other restrictions. (Totally not likening the flu to covid, just thinking of other diseases people are routinely vaccinated for).

They are saying that as more and more people are vaccinated, the restrictions can be raised. But there are people dying in the groups that are not targeted to be the initial groups.

Will we see a time where if younger people or kids in school people aren't made to isolate but let it rip because they aren't likely to be too ill or die from it? Or will self isolating and distancing remain but other restrictions all be able to open?

Young people who did from the flu are likely not vaccinated and aren't on the lists to be vaccinated for it. And in normal times there are a LOT of flu deaths in young and old. We don't isolate for that. I can't see any reason why if the situation is more under control that we should need to isolate for covid if people are vaccinated.

We reach herd immunity at 70% vaccination.

Interesting OP
@lovelemoncurd and the 30%?
I'm not challenging your theory but it's also interesting.

If it’s 70%, surely we will need to be vaccinating children?

I’m worrried in case they stop vaccinating before they reach me - autoimmune conditions means that I’m not positive I woke just throw off the virus

@Monty27 only 15.62% of the population are under 19. We have a very elderly population in the uk.

@lovelemoncurd

We reach herd immunity at 70% vaccination.

This is not a hard rule of 70%, it is dependent on how effective a particular vaccine is at preventing illness and onward transmission.

It is very, very important we don't vaccinate, allow uncontrolled transmission amongst the unvaccinated population and then have more variant issues.

The main issue we have is the unvaccinated group will be sizeable and all be linked by school - so that will remain a risk.

So by my calculations they can vaccinate 35 year olds and over and we reach herd immunity.

@lovelemoncurd

So by my calculations they can vaccinate 35 year olds and over and we reach herd immunity.

If you assume 100% in those groups which won't happen.

No absolutely plus some under 35s possibly vaccinated due to health conditions and being key worker / hospital staff.

I haven't heard much confidence that '70% vaccinated = herd immunity' is going to happen with covid, given they are not certain the vaccine will stop transmission, mutation risks, and the vaccine has limited longevity?

Of course there is going to come a day when we don't have to isolate every time we come in to contact with it. In fact there is going to be a time when all these testing stations are shut down and the only time someone will be tested is if they are ill in hospital. Once enough of the vulnerable are vaccinated it'll become like countless of illnesses, a few will become seriously (and yes some of those may die), others will feel off colour and take to their beds for a few days and (as now) a good percentage won't even know they've had it.

I think the problem is that this is a new and unpredictable virus that has a very high reproduction rate. So letting it rip means that it really will spread causing lots of cases and higher case numbers inevitably mean deaths too. Higher cases numbers also increase the likelihood of mutation and new strains as we’ve already seen with the new UK variant. This already seems more transmissible and seems to be having a greater impact on younger age groups. See this Sky News article, for example:
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-people-in-their-30s-are-dying-exhausted-itu-staff-reveal-brutal-truths-from-covid-front-line-12202763

My concern about letting it rip through the remainder of the population would be that it would encourage the virus to find ways of targeting these younger, ‘healthier’ hosts. I think we are likely to need a combined approach of restrictions and vaccinations for some time yet until case numbers are really driven down and we’ve got community transmission under control.

If the vaccines do not prevent transmission- and the data is inconclusive- then the biggest risk is virus mutation. Mutation can render current vaccines useless. In fact mutation becomes a bigger risk with a vaccine because the new strain gets the advantage of course. We absolutely can’t relax the rules. 30k + still in hospital with covid. We are far from out the woods yet.

I would like to think they'll routinely test all heart and lung patients before admission to hospital on an ongoing basis, and that hospitals will improve their infection control moving forward. If elderly people with heart/lung probs get it on a ward and spread it round, it would be a disaster and death trap.

I also hope nurses will have better procedures to help them not come in if coughing and sneezing in the future as a result of what we've learnt. My mum was previously (before covid).in ICU with serious heart probs, and nurses at the nurses station were coughing and sneezing. She caught an infection (pretty sure form the staff), which meant she nearly died and ended up having to have another heart op.

I am not worried about covid in the population generally moving forward if we can vaccinate each year, but I would.still.worry about it getting into hospitals and care homes...

70% of the population vaccinated might achieve herd immunity if it was a random 70% (assuming vaccination stops you spreading it - not yet proven but very, very likely)

But if we don't vaccinate all the children I can't see how it won't continue spreading between them in schools and from there bouncing out into unvaccinated older people, or the 5-30% of those for whom vaccination doesn't work, who could be very vulnerable. So I can't see how we can get back to normal until we've vaccinated at least 70% of all age groups, including children. I think they are currently trialing some of the vaccines on children - there's no reason to think they won't work just as well, so I'm hopeful that they will approve one by the summer. If not I think we'll have schools not back to normal even in September.

@Firefliess plus vaccine escape, as with the SA variant

*But then, something like chicken pox, the expectation is you do isolate until scabbed over. We were stuck in the house at least a week when DD caught it!

I also wonder if we’ll continue to need to be tested 🤷🏼‍♀️ Will I not be able to send DD to school with a cough in the future!? She asthma & coughs all winter usually. How will that work.. constantly testing her? It’s been hell this winter doing so. She’s so scared of the test*

I've also wondered this. For norovirus and sickness bugs you are meant to isolate for 48 hours after last episode,but the whole household doesnt.fsame withchicken pix, I think its 5-7 days until spots are scanned over...but only the infected person (although with young children often a parent will have to stay in by default)

And yes how will testing work? Will there be as many testing centres and labs. If each time your child has a cough or fever will they have to get tested and household (and other close contacts) need to isolate?

Sorry for all the typos and bold fail

I expect vaccination will eventually be rolled out to children, once there have been sufficient trials in that age group.

Since everyone seems to salivate at the idea of continuing this half life indefinitely, no. It'll just be our life, because there is no risk free return to normal life, and people appear to think no risk is worth it.

I wonder if we will test for more things routinely. We don't test much for flu (only a blood test which isn't done often) colds, chicken pox, etc. We just diagnose by symptoms. If we still test for COVID in years to come then why not for other things, maybe people will then be more aware of what is circulating around and take the necessary precautions, isolation. This may help those with suppressed immune systems, having chemo etc