Does anyone the wild fluctuations in vaccination numbers?

[notevenat20]

If you look at the number of vaccinations per day it doesn't seem to make sense. Just this last Saturday we had almost half a million in one day. The next day we had need less than half of that and Monday was a little more than Sunday. It's tempting to guess there are weekend effects (although why would Sunday be so different from Sunday?) but looking back we can see that the lowest number the week before was for a Monday.

I have no idea what is going on but here are my guesses. Is it any of these?

The numbers are controlled by the delivery of vaccines in large batches and these happen whenever they happen?

The dates for the numbers are not accurate and relate to when they are recorded not when the vaccinations happened?

The numbers are just wrong?

Does anyone understand the wild fluctuations in vaccination numbers?

Oh for the edit button...

The numbers are controlled by the delivery of vaccines in large batches and these happen whenever they happen?

Yes.

Many places are vaccinating 5 days a week. Some places are also doing Saturday but not Sunday.

NHS frontline staff getting the Oxford Vaccine are being advised to do it when they aren't on shift the next day as it's quite common to have 24 hours of feeling unwell after.

Just grateful it's been done don't feel the need to pick fault

Th numbers reported on any day are for the previous day, just checking you know that, which explains that Sun/Mon figures are the weekend ones.

But your starting assumption that all days should be the same is false anyway, the vaccine system isn't like a robotic production line. It would be more amazing surely if the number was the same very day.

As per your screenshot, Scotland and Wales don't report at weekends and there figures are added to Mondays which gets reported on Tuesday.

Th numbers reported on any day are for the previous day, just checking you know that, which explains that Sun/Mon figures are the weekend ones

Yes I had accounted for that. The numbers that appeared on Monday and Tuesday this week were for Sunday and Monday.

I heard an explanation the other day that deliveries are generally the beginning of the week so there is more available by end of week.

Makes sense if it's true.

But your starting assumption that all days should be the same is false

My assumption wasn't that. It was that the same day of the week should look the same every week relative to the day before or after. That is not the case currently

That is if Saturday is more than Friday and twice Sunday one week, it should be roughly like that every week.

It snowed. Some vaccination centres in Wales closed because it was unsafe to travel

@notevenat20

That is if Saturday is more than Friday and twice Sunday one week, it should be roughly like that every week.

Firstly, why?

Secondly, these are the numbers that were reported on any specific day, not the actual vaccinations carried out. It would all depend on the exact time data are added and extracted. If data are delayed then they will appear in a later reporting period.

Same applies to cases and deaths too.

This is why most people go by the weekly rolling average instead of a single days figures.

There’s been nothing happening in my area this week, the vaccination centre closed temporarily at the weekend while waiting for the next allocation to be delivered and there’s still no word as to when appointments can be booked for the next stage. I’m sure we’re not the only area where things have come to a standstill.

Our PCN is only vaccinating at weekends and is very supply dependent, and the supply is extremely variable.

The Pfizer comes in batches that need to be used ASAP so could explain it but the most likely reason is the blanket of white stuff much of the country has currently, we are snow free at the coast. Also gps are not necessarily vaccinating daily, ours is only on Tuesday and Thursday

Here it's odd, there were loads on Saturday and Sunday, and then a gap in appointments Mon-Wed this week when people couldn't book, and then open again on Thursday.

I thought it was either supply issues, or possibly that it was being done extra to GP hours, and GPs are busiest Mon-Wed, and then some of the GPs taking on extra hours later in the week (my friend who normally works all day monday and part time later in the week did part time vaccine shifts on Friday and all day Saturday, and others in her practice did all day Sunday).

The snow explanation makes sense too, so it will be interesting to see if it happens next weekend. I was really encouraged by the half a million a day data, and then surprised when it dropped so much lower afterwards.

I have read some rumours about the vaccine priority groups changing after 15th Feb, because of supply issues, and front-line workers like teachers and police being done instead of 50 and 60 year olds. I really hope that doesn't happen, as I'm at higher risk but not official, and I was really hoping that with the numbers so high, they'd be getting around to my group before April!

Sunday's are easy to explain, I've seen them being used as roll over days
if there is an issue with weather earlier in the week, but generally I expect most places build in a rest day then. All our local centres are only running a couple of days a week or so, purely down to vaccine availability.

Shame they couldn't send the vaccine down here - we had no snow. It could have been used up very easily...still doing the over 80s.