Death rate per 1000 for UK

[rowmaccerd]

Was 10.3 for 2020.

Just out of interest and without googling does anyone want to guess how far you need to go back to find a figure that high?

I think I saw the BBC talking about this - it depends how you correct for various factors. But I'm pretty sure one version was 1928.

Others were around time of WW2

There have only been 18 years in the last 2020 where the rate was lower, and two of those (201 and 2003) it was only down to 10.2.

Pretty sure that will surprise a lot of people, it certainly suprised me

Interesting. Was not 2003 when we had the hot summer and there were excess deaths then?

There have only been 18 years in the last 2020 where the rate was lower
18 years since the year 0? They weren't counting death rates and recording them in the middle ages etc. But if it only 18 years "since records began" that would make sense. Or is it a typo for 200?

I was making the fairly safe and obvious assumption that before records began, more people than 10.3 per thousand died each year.

Given the lack of medical care, heating, sanitation etc.

So yes. 18 years in history with a death rate lower than last year.

Most countries in the world have never had a death rate that lower ever.

Sorry I'm confused now. Do you mean in your OP "how far do you have to go back to find a figure that high"? Is the death rate from last year surprisingly low or surprisingly high?

So are you saying covid has set medical development back by 17 years? Is that it?

@ChocOrange1

Sorry I'm confused now. Do you mean in your OP "how far do you have to go back to find a figure that high"? Is the death rate from last year surprisingly low or surprisingly high?

I think people assume there were huge numbers of deaths. There weren't it's the same as every year before 2004.

Not ideal, but hardly the catastrophe a lot seem to think it is either

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

So are you saying covid has set medical development back by 17 years? Is that it?

Or, that our disastrous death rate last year is still lower than lots of other countries in any year.

Germany have only recorded a rate lower than that once in 2008,

What actuarial adjustments were made for demograpic change in the models you are following?

@RancidOldHag

What actuarial adjustments were made for demograpic change in the models you are following?

None.

Why should there be, its a very simple figure.

There should be because when you are comparing apples and pears the 'simple' answer is wrong.

Actuarial science is an important discipline

How are you comparing apples and pears? It is a simple total mortality count. Total deaths per 1000 head of population.
Currently we are seeing high death numbers in “people diagnosed with Covid within 28days”. If we were to look at figures of “deaths within 28days of flu diagnosed “ for previous years I doubt there would be much difference in the figures. Flu kills the same demographic.
The problem with Covid is that it causes severe infection in a significant cross section of the population which requires hospitalisation. The health infrastructure can just about cope with a bad flu outbreak but cannot cope with the Covid outbreak.
Lockdown is not about preventing death but saving the lives of those who respond to available treatment. You will always have a base level of fatalities that cannot be saved, but overwhelming the health system kills those who can be saved.
OP is suggesting that Covid is not resulting in an overall higher death rate. Lockdowns and restrictions have protected health provision so saving lives.

So what about excess deaths?

I'm not sure I understand your point OP. Are you trying to say that 10 people out of every thousand die every year anyway, and therefore 10 people per thousand dying of Covid isn't particularly bad. In other words double the usual number of people dying is fine?

Read this. It directly explains why it's a little bit more complicated than 'it's only as bad as 2003'.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275

Not if we adjust for age of population. If we do that, the death rate in 2020 was the highest since 2005.

The Sky article linked above is highly biased and was written to justify repeated lockdowns and impending recession. There are few independent voices at the moment. It is worth remembering that Doctors Whitty and Valance are government employees and not independent medical experts.