Did he really say covid would be around forever?

[musicalfrog]

The scientist chap on the briefing earlier. Did I hear that right? I thought pandemics petered out after a year or two. Do we still have spanish flu knocking around because I've not heard of anyone getting it in my lifetime?

@Robbybobtail

I feel he should have maybe clarified his statement there and then, because without context that line sounded quite alarming!

Im glad he said it. It’s high time they started admitting this and letting it sink into the minds of the general public. We have to live with this, it will obviously diminish hugely but I think this is hopefully a turning point and the start of the government trying to get people to change their mindset a bit. We have to get things opening up again once the elderly/vulnerable are vaccinated and the virus will still be there - it was never going to be eradicated.

I thought they'd been saying this for some time now?

The plague was European not Chinese (although it is spread by the oriental rat flea), and the Spanish flu was American.

I think this is more analogous to the 4 other coronaviruses out there that cause the common cold. Scientists believe when each of those first appeared there was an effect similar to this, sparing the young and killing off the old and weak. Danish researchers believe the so-called Russian flu pandemic of 1890 was caused by a coronavirus, and there are some eerie similarities.

www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/The-Great-Plague/

Everything I’ve read says China is the probable origin travelling the world via trade routes

@GirlCrush

www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/The-Great-Plague/

Everything I’ve read says China is the probable origin travelling the world via trade routes

With respect, who the fuck cares?

Honestly, if it's scientific or historical interest, one comment will suffice. Anything else it smacks of a desire to rile people up against China, which is a little Trumpian.

That’s just your opinion though

@Em777

Yes I was just reading that. Very interesting

@GirlCrush

That’s just your opinion though

What is your intent?

@Mintypylonsfryingsurplus symptoms of pneumatic plague are similiar to covid, really interesting reading. Obviously not the same thing but did read it said carriers are rats and cats! I was thinking I am so glad groups of animals weren’t involved with covid until I remembered the poor minks!

I think he might be right Covid will be the new flu especially with all the new strains

The plague was European not Chinese (although it is spread by the oriental rat flea), and the Spanish flu was American

It's uncertain but the plague probably did come from the east and many scientists have now disregarded the "rat flea" theory, in favour of it being carried person to person by human fleas. Which makes more sense

Spanish flu is still around. It is contained in the annual flu vaccine now, along with as many other variants of flu viruses as possible, a number of which are types of Coronavirus.

If course there were various different types of flu around even before 1918 - 1919. They are viruses. They mutate regularly. The SARS-Cov-2 virus does too. It has already mutated a number of times. So far scientists seem happy that the vaccines should be effective against the mutations, but they can be tweaked in the future if necessary.

In some areas of the world it is still possible to get bubonic plague. I believe that the World Health Organisation does monitor it, but numbers are not large and treatment with modern antibiotics is pretty effective.

The pandemic will ease eventually. The virus will always be around but we will gain more immunity to it, via vaccination and exposure.

The only disease that I am aware of that has been eradicated worldwide is Smallpox.

@musicalfrog

I feel he should have maybe clarified his statement there and then, because without context that line sounded quite alarming!

TBF he said “it will be around, probably forever, as a virus. But it will be controlled”.

The first sentence on its own sounds scary. Then you get the second sentence which adds more context.

It’s a novel virus, with new vaccines - I prefer cautious realism to either doom or it’s all fine. We have the flu vaccine - which hasn’t eradicated flu, but helps to keep numbers at a more manageable level. It will likely be the same with Covid-19. They will need a fair amount of time to continue tracking data, effectiveness in the wider population, tweaking, etc - but that’s the nature of fighting a new virus. Eventually, we will be living with this as an accepted ‘risk”. But it will be a manageable risk.

www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

This has a good insight, hongkong and asian flu 1.1M, we have had so many elderly people die which is not okay, what was the average age back then?

Alot of these are low lying as is whooping cough etc, that's why its imperative we try and vaccinate then again if it's like the flu is it a lost cause?

A number of people die every year as a result of pneumonic and bubonic plague. However, we can treat it and ring fence outbreaks now. It has a natural host in a number of animals and when people come into contact with them, sometimes they catch it. Not in the U.K. but it does happen in the USA, China, many countries. There are around 100 deaths per year worldwide from plague.
Experts always expected that the next big pandemic would be a flu as it mutates readily and has hosts in pigs and birds, which humans come into contact with easily.
No one really knows why the Spanish flu was quite as deadly as it was. Possibly due to movements after the end of the war, or it may have just been one of those things. There are flus out there with the potential to be much more harmful than the normal ones we get, and if you end up with a novel mutation and a particularly deadly AND contagious strain, you have a problem. This was what happened with Spanish flu.
So yes, we have always lived with corona viruses and will probably have this one around for ever BUT the huge advantage is that because children catch it so mildly, the children around now will have a natural level of immunity.
There is a suggestion that the reason we have never had a pandemic flu like Spanish flu is because so many people did catch it then, that there is a level of population immunity which has protected that generation ever since.

Really interesting thread, thank you to all contributors. I also had not realised that Spanish flu was still around, but now controlled by vaccines and really excellent graphic Ugzbugz.

www.ft.com/content/1c7266b1-1fad-458e-8585-12dc3164fdce

The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless. Scientists expect a mutant strain to escape their grip. Pharmaceutical companies are confident they can respond but that requires adapting the vaccines, winning regulatory approval (ideally without another set of full-blown trials) and ramping up manufacturing all over again.

In a positive scenario, this becomes as smooth as the annual flu vaccines, or an inoculation for all strains is developed. In a worst case, we are always a step behind the evolving virus.

Even if vaccines can deal with variants, there is a huge selection of the population ineligible for current vaccines, an impediment to herd immunity.

Stephane Bancel, Moderna’s chief executive, told the conference that the company would soon start to address this by testing its vaccine on young children “but this will take much longer” as scientists proceed carefully with low doses. We should not expect trial data until next year.

There is at least some positive news for investors. JPMorgan’sanalysts worried about the “durability of the vaccine tailwinds” to pharma company profits. Fret not. “From where we sit here at Pfizer, we see this as a durable business,” said Ms Hwang. “And it’s a business and a piece of research that we’re going to have to continue to do for a long time.”

I am hoping to see visible and non visible signs of the NHS gearing up to cope with covid, long term op.
Many people have said that last summer, it didnt look like the NHS got prepared for the winter we are having, but obviously back then, they didnt know as much as we do now.

I too found it alarming and actually, scaremongering, as if it was done on purpose.
If he had wanted to he could have clarified and explained it like RobbyBobtail did, as a specific thing to tell people they now need to accept this, then that would have been a totally different thing.

@MrsTerryPratchett

Another theory puts the origin of the Spanish as China:

api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health

As to who gives a fuck - well finding out how Covid started is actually quite important from a scientific point of view if you want to prevent future pandemics. If was the wet market then that has lessons on food hygiene or if it was a lab leak then that has lessons for bio security for other labs across the world.

This is not Trumpian or an attempt to rile people against the Chinese Government although they seem to be doing a good job of that themselves by denying WHO access for over a year, jailing doctors who spoke up about covid and a general misinformation campaign.

Similarly you seem to be very defensive of the Chinese Government - on their payroll by any chance??

@MrsTerryPratchett i dont see how @GirlCrushs posts have riled you. She made a statement for plague starting in china then someone else said she was wrong and it was europe so she came back with a source for her claim of it starting in china, then you took great offence and are basically trying to accuse her of racism. Bizarre.

Similarly you seem to be very defensive of the Chinese Government - on their payroll by any chance??

I bloody wish. It would be a very long con though.

It's the disingenuous, "oh how interesting, that was China too" I object to. There are lots of diseases that pop up, in areas of high population and travel. China, the ME, Europe, let's not forget the utter devastation of First Nations in every country we colonised.

Maybe it's interest. Maybe it's the constant blame heaped on China. I just assume the latter. Possibly I'm wrong.