Please can someone summarise the latest news conference?

[Lelophants]

Feel like im missing a few things (on baby duty)

@Twattergy

it's annoying me how today it is reported that the new mutation is '30% more deadly'. It means that if you are aged over 60 and get covid, rather than having a 1% likelihood of it killing you, you have a 1.3% chance of it killing you.

They did that with the new variant instead of saying it's half as much transmissible again, they said it's 50%.

Using percentages without using figures is misleading, you could have death rate of 1 person but another person dies that increases 100%.

Lunapeace I'm not sure, but I think they were introduced when Gillian Shepherd was Education secretary. The 1988 Education act defined the Key Stages and Reception classes were mentioned in the 1996 Education act as already in place.

There was a lot of tinkering going on in Education during the late 80s, early 90s. Perhaps someone else will have a more definite idea.

My brother started school aged 4 in 1982. I started the term that I turned 5 in 1981 so I only did two terms of the reception year whereas he did a full year. There were still seven years of primary school when I started but only those born September to December did a full school year in reception.

If they hold children back a year we will end up with a two tier system. Private schools will not hold their children back unless they are behind (and most of them won’t be behind) so they will go up as usual and finish school a year earlier than those in state schools.

My sister started school in 1981 aged 5 and Reception classes definitely weren't a thing for our LA then. Perhaps they were introduced gradually in some areas as a pilot scheme.

I don't quite get the "two tier" argument, either. Why does it matter if some private school children leave a year early? Many of them go on to do Gap years anyway.

A while ago I suggested repeating a year - at very least for the children who hadn't been able to keep up with on line learning for whatever reason.
Its been a nearly a year of interruptions & parents who either were balancing work or homework with limited childcare or trying to do both simultaneously or children with limited access to the on line learning, this is specifically bad for those with any difficulty with learning , or whose parents had limited education, or those who income & housing were erratic or limited.
Basically its increased inequality

Government strategy has switched. And i think its important to note in the context of this press conferences.

Johnson was criticised before Christmas for being overly optimistic and over promising and under delivering which is a big no no as a politician.

I believe theres been a recognition of this and the government is actively switching to the correct way of playing this - under promising and over delivering.

If that is indeed the case, then it will be hard for the public to adjust to this immediately. Especially since they have got used to Johnson being overly optimistic.

The issue is that expectation management has not been good to date. There needs to be an injection of honesty and realism.

I think this is probably where we now are. And why it may feel worse than it is. Especially with the timing falling in January which is notoriously more depressing.

Excellent post RedToothBrush.

I started school aged 4 in 1969. In my authority, there were graduated starts - so, as a Summer Birthday, I started after Easter and only did 1 term in Reception. Some did 2 terms and some 3 - but that was back in the 60s. When my sister started (3 yrs later) she did a whole year in Reception.
I was teaching in the 1980s, and taught Reception classes.
We called Infants 'Reception', Middles, and Tops' before the National Curriculum was introduced and 'Middles' became Yr1 and 'Tops' became Yr 2......1st Yr Juniors Yr3 etc.

This rando idea of repeating a year is wrong for sooooooooooo many reasons - as all posted on the previous thread where this was suggested.

Totally agree @Twattergy about the somewhat misleading use of %s.

@lljkk

if we were totally fucked, would they tell us?

Then why not stop Lockdown immediately... I mean what would there be to gain by crippling the economy forever.

Yeah fuck knows. According to most people here it's all cool though and the money tree will carry on spunking cash.

It doesn't really take that much imagination to work out a few ways you could accommodate the 2021 schools intake in different ways. It would take money though. But I am not sure the current Y11 could stomach it though. Or deserve to be put through it after this years debacle. For them I think better to focus on progression, and for the rest better to use some real vigour and intelligence to rethink the GCSE system, with educationalists leading it, not politicians.

I woke up the other night and just for a moment I thought this pandemic must have been a bad dream. I thought I had dreamed it, then I realised it is real.

@covetingthepreciousthings

There was no promises with any of it, I get the impression that they are trying to be cautious and they don't want people assuming everything will be back open in Feb..

I would think March / April at the earliest now going by the way they were speaking, but who knows at this point.

It has been pretty obvious to anyone paying attention, that this was the situation. However from the number of threads there has been on MN about 'will the schools go back in Feb' this week its pretty apparent that lots of people are really unaware of this.

The reality is that 2021 isn't going to go to play and as most hope. You can already see that from the numbers.

Just because of how long it takes for the relevant data to filter through the system and for any reductions in mortality rates / hospitalisation rates to become visible, we are looking at March before we are likely to get sight of this.

We also need to get hospitalisations down. London hospital admissions have eased but it will take weeks to reduce enough.

Its crucial we start having conversations about restrictions of some form being in place for the majority of the year.

The next big issue is that holidays abroad are likely to be axed over the summer. They already have a pretty good idea about this and are dropping hints preparing for this....

Did anyone see the Sky News report on the strict measures being implemented in China? Apparently China have recorded 130 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and in response have constructed isolation camps, mandatory mass vaccination and strict lockdown measures. 130 cases?!!.. Such extreme measures convince me that we aren’t being given the full facts about the virus.

Shambolic

How they can be fucking things up so badly even with 3 approved vaccines is beyond me. They just seem to want to give us endless bad news instead of actually doing anything.

@RedToothBrush

Government strategy has switched. And i think its important to note in the context of this press conferences.

Johnson was criticised before Christmas for being overly optimistic and over promising and under delivering which is a big no no as a politician.

I believe theres been a recognition of this and the government is actively switching to the correct way of playing this - under promising and over delivering.

If that is indeed the case, then it will be hard for the public to adjust to this immediately. Especially since they have got used to Johnson being overly optimistic.

The issue is that expectation management has not been good to date. There needs to be an injection of honesty and realism.

I think this is probably where we now are. And why it may feel worse than it is. Especially with the timing falling in January which is notoriously more depressing.

Good post.

@Maze76

Did anyone see the Sky News report on the strict measures being implemented in China? Apparently China have recorded 130 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and in response have constructed isolation camps, mandatory mass vaccination and strict lockdown measures. 130 cases?!!.. Such extreme measures convince me that we aren’t being given the full facts about the virus.

Not necessarily, similar measures were implemented for smallpox outbreaks.

Maze isnt it just that different countries react differently? Australia locked down really hard and recently sydney stopped transportnin and out over a handful of cases didn't they?

We missed the boat for that...

@RedToothBrush

Government strategy has switched. And i think its important to note in the context of this press conferences.

Johnson was criticised before Christmas for being overly optimistic and over promising and under delivering which is a big no no as a politician.

I believe theres been a recognition of this and the government is actively switching to the correct way of playing this - under promising and over delivering.

If that is indeed the case, then it will be hard for the public to adjust to this immediately. Especially since they have got used to Johnson being overly optimistic.

The issue is that expectation management has not been good to date. There needs to be an injection of honesty and realism.

I think this is probably where we now are. And why it may feel worse than it is. Especially with the timing falling in January which is notoriously more depressing.

Well said

RedToothBrush

I agree but before Christmas and in fact all of last year, it was all about getting Brexit done. Had Bojo been more honest and open with the public from day one, there would have been outcry on that front. Now that Brexit is done (lol), he has a fatigued population and one not in a fighting mood, he can change tack.

I don’t buy the blurb his decisions have been based so ly on his belief in civil liberties, freedom and not wanting to cage the population. The state of the country is because he refused to intervene when it really mattered to control population flows from day one. Something, which has been done to death, I know. But it was obvious before 31st January last year (when I was praying he wouldn’t trigger EU exit because of Covid19) where we were headed if he didn’t intervene.

He is just a lazy yes man and his entire ‘strategy’ has been heavily influenced by his need to appease the ERG, which ironically I now understand have splintered off to become the CRG (coronavirus research group); although we don’t seem to have heard much from them.

With quarantine for international arrivals seemingly coming in on Monday, I think a takeaway from the mood music will be no mass gatherings for the foreseeable and holiday at home.

[quote Againstmachine]@Twattergy

it's annoying me how today it is reported that the new mutation is '30% more deadly'. It means that if you are aged over 60 and get covid, rather than having a 1% likelihood of it killing you, you have a 1.3% chance of it killing you.

They did that with the new variant instead of saying it's half as much transmissible again, they said it's 50%.

Using percentages without using figures is misleading, you could have death rate of 1 person but another person dies that increases 100%.[/quote]
Absolutely agree. Or in the Summer they would say that the death rate in an area has "doubled" when it's gone from 2 people to 4 people. Whatever it takes to sell papers/click links, but its irresponsible and should be stopped. Unfortunately a lot of people in this country aren't literate or mathematically able enough to read the actual data and have to rely on the headlines. It's actually a real indictment of people's lack of critical thinking skills that they just take things at face value because the BBC/Daily Mail/Facebook tells them it's true.

@RedToothBrush - what hints have they dropped about holidays abroad being restricted over summer?

Also, why? Is it because of the new varients? Travel was permitted last summer - although with 2 week quarantine introduced late summer - since the numbers did really drop. Had been very much hoping the same would happen again.

It's not just about holidays, my parents live in Europe and I haven't seen them for a year now. (Despite it being permitted, I wasn't comfortable with the risk of catching it travelling to them and infecting them) I was really hoping it would be possible by late summer if we had all been vaccinated.

But what does this actually MEAN? He hadn't told me anything new, nothing I didn't know yesterday. I need facts, dates.

Are we now saying schools won't open after Easter? If so, when?

Are we now saying schools won't open after Easter? If so, when?

Nothing was said about this.

He did confirm that the next review would be 15 Feb.