Please don't let it be true that one dose of Pfizer jab is only 33% effectuve

[Calmandmeasured1]

www.thesun.co.uk/news/13795481/one-dose-vaccine-only-33-effective-israeli-experts-claim/

This story does not derive from the Sun but from Sky News.

Sky news covered the findings of an Israeli study, which is the first real world (ie post clinical) trial of 200,000 people who had received their first Covid vaccine and 200,000 had not.

There was no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated until day 14 after vaccination - when positive tests dropped by 33% in the vaccinated group but not in the unvaccinated group.

The U.K. government claimed that the vaccine would be 89% effective after one dose and was used to justify the delayed roll out of the second jab.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4141729-Please-dont-let-it-be-true-that-one-dose-of-Pfizer-jab-is-only-33-effective

Wrong link!

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751

@1980sMum

I don't know where you're getting that data from? This www.fda.gov/media/144246/download says the interim and final analysis were both done after the second dose. As far as I can see there is no data analysis for after just one dose?

What does it matter? I've had the first dose of the vaccine and it doesn't change anything.

Still in lockdown, still in full PPE at work but I know that if I were to contract Covid it will be less severe - that's the main point of the first vaccine.

It will be a long time before we are out of this so it's all rather irrelevant.

This site www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-12-30-oxford-vaccine-regulatory-faq says
The authorisation [for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine] is recommended as a two dose regimen, given as two standard doses with a flexible inter-dose interval of four to twelve weeks, which was shown in clinical trials to be safe and effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalisations more than 14 days after the first injection.

@Inthemuckheap surely you feel better knowing that you are very unlikely to become seriously ill if you do develop covid though?

That goes against all the official testing which was around 70%. I don't understand how the Israelis can come up with conflicting evidence

The Israeli government, for better or worse, have cut a deal with Pfizer so that Pfizer get the first data on the real world use of the vaccine (so not on a screened clinical population). Their data is real world data and they also have digital medical records plus several trials running testing things like antibodies at various stages (daily and weekly) so they will know what's actually going on.

The Israeli data IS Pfizer data, it's shared and they've made a commitment to publish it transparently, so that's why they are sharing it as they are going along, like on day 15 when the vaccine did look much more successful.

One really obvious difference is that in the clinical trial less than 50% of the participants were over 55 (I think) and in the real world, they vaccinated the over 65's first so this is an older population who are likely to respond slightly less well to the vaccine (as with the flu vaccine). There still was some increased immunity after two weeks which is good news!

It seems to me that once again the government have decided to do away with the science. Pfizer told them that two doses were needed and they decided to change this in favour of vaccinating more people. This is a gamble; there is no evidence that this would work but they did it anyway. The govment response has been shambolic at every turn. They have consistently refused to acknowledge and act until they are forced to which is why we are in a worse situation than many other countries.

They will give the 2 doses though, just with a longer interval

[quote madroid]@1980sMum

I don't know where you're getting that data from? This www.fda.gov/media/144246/download says the interim and final analysis were both done after the second dose. As far as I can see there is no data analysis for after just one dose?[/quote]
Some of it based on small numbers but the document summarises that it seems much of the protection is after Dose 1. Of course, real world data will always be different and, as someone else pointed out, Israel were mainly focusing on those over 60. The Pfizer trial had two groups 18-55 and 55+. Looking at the FDA notes, it would seem more people in the 'younger' group (18-55) had side effects presumably because it elicited a stronger immune response, which is common - flu jabs often don't provide more protection than 50%, 70% would be high and it is not unheard of it's only 30-40%. But the Israel study were mainly looking at 'daily positivity' rates which is not the same as 'severe' Covid which is what the 1st dose seem to protect against.

From the FDA guidance notes: "Among all participants (regardless of evidence of infection before or during the vaccination regimen), 50 cases of COVID-19 occurred after Dose 1 in the BNT162b2 group compared with 275 cases in the placebo group, indicating an estimated VE of 82% (95% CI: 75.6%, 86.9%) against confirmed COVID-19 occurring after Dose 1 of the 2-dose regimen, with VE of 52.4% (95% CI: 29.5%, 68.4%) between Dose 1 and Dose 2.
The early onset of protection is readily apparent from cumulative incidence curves, which show that disease onset tracks conjointly for BNT162b2 and placebo until approximately 14 days after Dose 1, at which point the curves diverge, with cases steadily accumulating in the placebo group, while remaining virtually flat in the BNT162b2 group."

@herecomesthsun

They will give the 2 doses though, just with a longer interval

But thats the point, its 3 months plus before good immunity, instead of 3 weeks.....

In our haste (understandable) to vaccinate millions, do we have the records to know who has had what and when to recall patients for their 2nd dose?

That Pfizer jab is very expensive though. Now the Oxford one is approved I would expect it will be much cheaper to give the 2 doses.

I wonder if they will mix not match😂

I think bigger gap makes more sense.
Not least because over 80 have a high chance of dying within the year. So on this sort of scale it's a big difference.
If it makes a difference to spread too it's probably working age population spreading it more too.

Not least because over 80 have a high chance of dying within the year.

It's about 6% or one in 17 for an 80 year old. Do you call that a high chance?

I honesty feel if we just discovered fire or invented the wheel at the moment people would be picking fault with them critising

Thanks @1980sMum that makes it much clearer - and good news

@HSHorror

I think bigger gap makes more sense. Not least because over 80 have a high chance of dying within the year. So on this sort of scale it's a big difference. If it makes a difference to spread too it's probably working age population spreading it more too.

ah so you know more than Pfizer?

I look forward to your new single dose vaccine coming to the market v soon.......

@rwalker

I honesty feel if we just discovered fire or invented the wheel at the moment people would be picking fault with them critising

Nope, its like someone invents the wheel and then someone who knows SFA about wheels, says "you need a square wheel" stuff what the wheel inventor says.......... i know best.

its really quite simple, Stick to what Pfizer say, no ifs or buts until we have long term data.....

It's not looking great :(

Figures from Israel inside people that caught covid during the first 14 days where it is thought that protection is low....

It's another non story

The larger gap will stop more people dieing because more will get their first jab

Even one dose of the vaccine massively reduces serious illness and hospitalisation. That has been proven.

So we stick to the current plan to save lifes and the NHS.

The oxford is proven to work better with a longer gap. So that is good. How well the Pfizer does with infections is wait and see. Israel needs to give it another week for the antibodies to build. Early days.

Pfizer has never been that trust worthy when it comes to efficiency. They changed theirs after Moderna announced theirs.

These are the results from the Pfizer/BioNTech trial. The vaccine group had similar rates to the placebo for around 2 weeks after vaccination, when the rates dropped dramatically.

It is too early to say for Israel but looks promising. In another week or two the picture should be clearer

@jasjas1973
I honesty feel if we just discovered fire or invented the wheel at the moment people would be picking fault with them critising
Nope, its like someone invents the wheel and then someone who knows SFA about wheels, says "you need a square wheel" stuff what the wheel inventor says.......... i know best.

its really quite simple, Stick to what Pfizer say, no ifs or buts until we have long term data.....

Agreed where they said 1 dose gives limited imunity . So our choice it limited immunity to masses or full immunity to the few .

Patrick Vallance was on Sky this morning and explained that the study didn’t look at the crucial bit. He said from 10 days after having your first dose (which is when immunity starts to kick in) to day 21 is about 90%. They don’t expect that to wane much in the time it takes to get the second booster jab