2021 starting to feel like another write off

[User133847]

Looking like lockdown until around Easter time and then back to tiers for a while. Maybe open up more as the summer goes on (like last year) and then hope for the best over winter.

I hope I'm wrong. I'm going to enjoy the summer as much as I can this time. Within the rules before anyone starts.

@BogRollBOGOF

Times are hard now, but I'm still optomistic for life feeling better from Easter. If it happened in 2020, then there shouldn't be a reason for it not to happen in 2021. Restrictions should ease earlier and quicker. Orgnaisations have "Covid Secure" measures in place. We understand risks better. We are rapidly working towards vaccinating the most vulnerable proportion of the population.

I'm not expecting "normal" and it will be a happy day when social distancing and masks are dropped, but I do think that we will have a much better summer and less disrupted autumn/ winter than the one we're existing through now.

Having come out of November lockdown into tier 3, life has had very few options since the end of October and its worn more than a little thin, but better days are coming. The government can't screw spring up and many regions are approaching their peak or passing it now.

Thank you for this @BogRollBOGOF
I always like to see your posts , positive whilst being understanding of the desperation some people are feeling .

Keep if you don't mind me asking, why weren't you able to see your family when restrictions were lifted? Are you or they in one of the perpetual lockdown areas?

My cousins are in those areas - I'm beginning to think I should have just got on a train and gone.

I agree, the people begging for lockdown are in that situation. A general strike might wake them up - no food deliveries and no bin collections for them - but they probably have enough land to bury their waste etc.

Two things may happen

1. Restrictions will carry on in some form all year (tiers) and people will get so sick of it they will start to defy the government
2. We will be allowed a relatively normal summer and everyone will go nuts because they are desperate to get back to normal. Pubs /restaurants would be packed, all families meeting together in each others houses hugging, kissing etc and cases will rise again.

Seems to me that whatever happens, come winter we will be locking down again

@Mindymomo

You’ve got to love a positive thread on this dull, cold, wet ,January morning.

Ha ha all the ones with Chrystal balls even Patrick valence said this morning he does not know what will happen !

@Flippyferloppy

I've just about had it, I'm afraid, and I agree with you that there isn't going to be any significant improvement any time soon. This isn't living, it's existing, and quite frankly I don't see the point. I am cut off from everyone significant in my life other than DH. Some close members of my (very small) family I am unlikely to see before 2022 now. Every day is the same: get up, have breakfast, work, have lunch, work, have dinner, watch tv/read. Weekends we get a food shop and go for a walk (woohoo!). We have nothing left to do in the house. It has essentially been fully renovated whilst we've been stuck inside. I have no motivation for online museum visits etc. and in any case, I can't concentrate on anything these days. Another year of this is unthinkable

I agree I feel the same

@lucywho123

I agree with those saying it's not about the virus disappearing. Anyone with a brain cell surely knows by now, lockdowns are to stop hospitals getting overwhelmed, to save some lives, but not to save all lives as that's just impossible

Infections need to be brought under control, and vaccinations given to those most at risk - once that's done, we will have to live with this virus the same way we do the flu. And hospitals will still get overwhelmed as they do every winter but not to the levels we have seen the past few months

To those saying they won't cope if it goes on for another year, pls don't give up hope. I have confidence that June onwards we will be out of the other side of this, it's all about getting those vaccinations to the over 50's and the vulnerable. I really hope the Government don't let us down on the vaccine side of things, when I feel we've been let down on so much other stuff

Well said and you have given me hope x

@JKW36 why is a winter lockdown inevitable? If the majority (or even all adults) have been vaccinated then the NHS won't be at risk?

Do you understand the logic / reasoning for restrictions? They are simply to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed.

@JKW36

Two things may happen

1. Restrictions will carry on in some form all year (tiers) and people will get so sick of it they will start to defy the government
2. We will be allowed a relatively normal summer and everyone will go nuts because they are desperate to get back to normal. Pubs /restaurants would be packed, all families meeting together in each others houses hugging, kissing etc and cases will rise again.

Seems to me that whatever happens, come winter we will be locking down again

Yeah, as I say, enjoy the summer as much as you can, while you can, within the constrain of whatever the restrictions are and just hope for the best over winter.

I have confidence that June onwards we will be out of the other side of this, it's all about getting those vaccinations to the over 50's and the vulnerable

True, but that's still half the year pretty much written off.

Things should certainly be a lot better June-August but they were last year as well.

The key as the year goes on, as you say is how successful the vaccines are.

@botoxbetty yes I understand. I unfortunately don't think the vaccination is going to be a raging success. What if it isn't successful against the newer strains? What if many people refuse to have the vaccine?

I don't think that covid cases will have reduced enough this year to allow the NHS to recover Pandemics usually last a couple of years and we are still in the thick of it.

I also think once deaths reduce the government will just focus on cases instead (which will still be high this year) and they will restrict us on that

Most people are having the vaccine if offered. Tbh all I hear are people desperate for the call or letter!

The vaccine developers can rejig the vaccine for newer variants but today Pfizer said the current vaccine looks good against UK variant. I see more cause for optimism on vaccine front.

@Porcupineintherough

I dont agree. It's not people getting the virus that's a problem, it's the numbers getting seriously ill and needing hospitalization. Once the numbers of these people drop sufficiently, life can return to something a lot closer to normal. So I think this year will be a whole lot better.

All of this.

It would not be correct still to assume that younger people are largely staying out of the admissions data now, as in the first wave last March. Look at LittleOwl1's thread about London age groups for example. Many of them, and their relatives, are still posting with painful surprise about how ill they turned out to be. I suspect that this is the phase (I believe Jan-Feb will constitute the peak) where we have to be as careful as possible about pushing matters to the point where the gaps in the the working population get too great to give adequate service - most damaging to the health and care sector but bad for everyone if food chains, bin collections, electricity/water, funeral services, internet providers, etc get into trouble.

I still think this year could be a whole lot better, but am not going to make judgements until after the peak of this wave.

Agree.
Only going to be OK if you are elderly, clinically vulnerable, work in NHS, teachers and police, or if you have no fear of Covid. Everyone else will be staying at home wondering when the hell they might get a vaccine.

@southeastdweller

I agree with you.

The ease in which the government have implemented these restrictions, and the generally high compliance so far, makes me think there could very well be lockdown 4.0 next winter and I wonder if that’s what Whitty was on his mind the other week when he said there could be restrictions next winter. I think we’ll all be in tiers for most of this year and even being in tier 3 again would feel like winning the lottery to me.

@southeastdweller

I think we’ll all be in tiers for most of this year and even being in tier 3 again would feel like winning the lottery to me.

And that's exactly how people have been conditioned to think. This time next year, being in tier 7 will seem like a "privilege". A bit like being in District 1 in The Hunger Games....

We are at war with Covid-19. We have always been at war with Covid-19.

I was feeling optimistic about the vaccines until the new variant info came through. Now I feel like we're going to be constantly chasing these new variants and having to tweak the vaccines. We'll probably only be able to vaccinate the vulnerable once a year from September onwards, the rest of us will have to take our chances with long covid. I dread to think what the long-term impact will be on health (and the economy) from repeated covid infections in the young.

I don't see how we can just vaccinate the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it either. Once things open up infections will explode in younger people and due to the high case numbers it could be enough to overwhelm the NHS. I'm struggling to see a way out of this, everything feels so bleak.

@santanddec

I was feeling optimistic about the vaccines until the new variant info came through. Now I feel like we're going to be constantly chasing these new variants and having to tweak the vaccines. We'll probably only be able to vaccinate the vulnerable once a year from September onwards, the rest of us will have to take our chances with long covid. I dread to think what the long-term impact will be on health (and the economy) from repeated covid infections in the young.

I don't see how we can just vaccinate the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it either. Once things open up infections will explode in younger people and due to the high case numbers it could be enough to overwhelm the NHS. I'm struggling to see a way out of this, everything feels so bleak.

I feel similarly to you.

I went into tier 3 Friday 18th Dec, tier 4 Sat 19th Dec and lockdown with everyone a few weeks ago.
I live alone.
I have only worked 3 months since March and get no government help.
I am volunteering at a big vaccine hub.
I work in gyms and clubs teaching classes.
They only go ahead in tier 1 and 2. I doubt I'll be back for 3 or 4 months perhaps.
I do feel it is existing yes.

Gee - I wonder what month, or year, proper Government investment in the NHS will start...? That would really "save" the NHS, wouldn't it? Instead of the endless blaming and guilt-tripping of the general public....

Or perhaps they could cease the ludicrous policy of forced self-isolation of healthy NHS staff who test "positive" - and mass testing in general - which has led to staff absences of 10% in some hospitals (www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9090317/NHS-faces-Covid-staffing-crisis-one-TEN-workers-sick.html), exacerbating the preexisting staff shortages. This appears to be the largest factor in the current pressure on the NHS.

It is especially absurd when you consider that the evidence for asymptomatic transmission is minimal (jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102 www.imperial.ac.uk/news/209673/covid-19-spread-different-social-settings-imperial/) to non-existent (www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w). And yet this is the highly dubious premise upon which many of these measures are based....

@santanddec

I was feeling optimistic about the vaccines until the new variant info came through. Now I feel like we're going to be constantly chasing these new variants and having to tweak the vaccines. We'll probably only be able to vaccinate the vulnerable once a year from September onwards, the rest of us will have to take our chances with long covid. I dread to think what the long-term impact will be on health (and the economy) from repeated covid infections in the young.

I don't see how we can just vaccinate the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it either. Once things open up infections will explode in younger people and due to the high case numbers it could be enough to overwhelm the NHS. I'm struggling to see a way out of this, everything feels so bleak.

But so few people under 40 with covid end up in hospital, even with higher case numbers, it's not going to overwhelm the NHS the.way that we're seeing currently. We hear about the 30 year olds in ICU because they are anomalies. Very tragic for them.and their families,.and yes the risk might well mean that some.restrictions persist for most of this year, and we should.expect some short sharp localised lockdowns as has been seen in Asia for example, but nothing like we've experienced so far, once the over 60s and vulnerable are vaccinated. The numbers wouldn't make sense.

Yup, and the amount of threads on here at the end of last year with people saying that they couldn't wait for 2020 to be over was really weird. People predicting things would be almost back to normal by February . Ridiculous, and J was torn down for asking why people seemed to think that things were going to be any better just because we were going into a new year.