Would Tendring make a good case study for how deprivation and living conditions affect transmission?

[Whatever9999]

OK so I live in Tendring, and it is an extremely diverse area, with many of the extremes in living conditions that possibly mirror the country.

Tendring covers a large area, but in generally is sparsely populated. We have 2 large towns, well not sure they can be considered large compared to most towns, but to someone living in a village they feel large. They also appear quite run down.

Parts of Clacton feel very deprived, one area, Jaywick, is often quoted as being the most deprived ward in the country. Central Clacton has a large number of B&Bs/HMOs along with victorian style housing with houses very close to each other.
The next town, Harwich also feels quite run down and is also an international port.
Then there are a couple of very small towns, both of which have a far more affluent feel and a much older average age. They are more of a village than town.
The rest of the district is made up of farmland and villages. Travel links between the areas are poor to say the least. I have no idea how I would get from where I am to half of the other villages using public transport and apart from 2 or 3 would need to travel out of district to get an irregular bus to get there.

So on to covid, as you all know Tendring was doing really well right up until Mid-december when the new varient hit.

But even so it hasn't hit every part even equally.

My postcode area covers 2 villages and a very small (as in smaller than the villages) town which also has a busy train station with the interchange from Harwich. Our numbers peaked at just over 600/100000 and now are at under 500.

Tendring itself though peaked at around 1200 and is now just under 1000.

This is due to the numbers in Clacton, in one postcode area numbers went to around 2200, and is now just under 1800
(These really hit home because I used to live in that area and know what the housing conditions are like and in the main they are the definition of deprivation).

Not sure what I'm trying to get at, but I think that it really does show how poverty seems to be a number one factor for the risks of covid spreading. Nothow well people stick to the rules (I've no idea how compliant the people in Clacton are, even without Covid i rarely return, its just not worth the hassle with public transport and I certainly won't be risking it atm), but even in the villages there are people not complying and go in each others houses.

I think it's an interesting hypothesis OP. It seemed as though throughout December the new varient spread like a wave from London, across Essex hitting Brentwood and Basildon first, then gradually creeping out east and north.

I was so surprised that Maldon was hit so badly, which is a very isolated district. My MIL lives in a village on the Dengie and she caught it. The people of Burnham seemed very put out when it hit, thinking that being so isolated would have protected it.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Now I always say we should have been hit harder than we were in the first wave. As i said busy mainline station, interchange with Harwich, very few jobs in actual area so very high percentage of commuters also large number of elderly.

I was surprised that we were relatively unscathed. But the villages and town were badly hit by a "mystery respiratory virus" (that had lots of covid symptoms, I know, I was hit with it and very ill at one point), after the Christmas parties in 2019. I did wonder that if it wasn't covid maybe it was something similar that gave us a degree if immunity. I know of far, far more people how had that virus than I do have had covid.

@Whatever9999 hopefully the ONS will be doing an update to this reasonably soon

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand31july2020

The key finding in that was

In England, the age-standardised mortality rate for deaths involving COVID-19 in the most deprived areas in July 2020 was 3.1 deaths per 100,000 population; as seen in previous months, this was more than double the mortality rate in the least deprived areas (1.4 deaths per 100,000 population).

The report only covered deaths between last March and July, but at least gives an initial feel.

Unfortunately ONS has not yet said when their next updated release will be.

I think age of population probably plays a factor and the location of the few large secondary schools. My postcode area falls under Frinton West and Kirby and our case rate peaked just shy of 2000 and we have a relatively high number of deaths. These areas age demographic is skewed towards older people. There have been outbreaks in the many, many elderly care homes on the Frinton/Walton/Holland stretch of coast.
The secondary schools in Clacton have had outbreaks and whole school closures through the autumn term. TTC hasn’t had an outbreak as such however the vast majority of people I know who have been positive work there (DH brought it home from working there.
Also we aren’t all living in poverty and deprivation on the Tendring coast!!!

It’s not going to be a surprise why the deprived area is struggling. Poorer baseline health, more crowded living conditions, low paid gig economy employment - no enhanced sick pay so less likely to isolate and to to be able to WFH. Where there may be more stable employment, often in caring professions or lower paid jobs with lots of public contact.

In fact the BMJ had a blog post about this only last week. I live in a very leafy suburb of a large city with a very specific clustering of affluent, public sector professionals. Our rates are well below average. One of the wards across the city has one of the highest death rates in the first wave.