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X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...

29 replies

IsabellaMozzarella · 16/01/2021 18:12

Why are the deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported only?

OP posts:
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LIZS · 16/01/2021 18:13

They aren,'t, another thread a few days ago quoted 60 day figures

IsabellaMozzarella · 16/01/2021 18:16

On the BBC news that's how they report them. Not saying the other figures aren't available. Just wondering why

OP posts:
PrincessNutNuts · 16/01/2021 18:20

Because as Krishnam Guru Murphy says on Twitter "the maniacs can't argue with those"

The bbc also report the 60 day deaths on their Coronavirus page

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
PrincessNutNuts · 16/01/2021 18:21

Forgot the link: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Pastanred · 16/01/2021 18:26

because at one point people who died months later who were positive but died of something else e.g dementia were inc in deaths. one example given was a covid positive person who died in car crash 6 weeks later - counted as a covid death

So now they say 28 days to ensure that most of those figures actually died of covid

PrincessNutNuts · 16/01/2021 18:27

And excess deaths are also something to look at.

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
IsabellaMozzarella · 16/01/2021 18:30

Thanks Smile

OP posts:
Pastanred · 16/01/2021 18:30

eg only 64% of covid patients who died after day 29 had covid on their death cert - so 36% didnt actually die of covid but would have been included previously

PrincessNutNuts · 16/01/2021 18:30

@Pastanred

because at one point people who died months later who were positive but died of something else e.g dementia were inc in deaths. one example given was a covid positive person who died in car crash 6 weeks later - counted as a covid death

So now they say 28 days to ensure that most of those figures actually died of covid

During the first peak "dementia" deaths rose by 83% for about a month coinciding with the first peak of covid deaths.

They weren't tested for covid because there are no tests but they were diagnosed with Alzheimer's or other form of dementia that is terminal so that was put down as their cause of death even though, given the timing, plenty of them were probably covid deaths.

See the grey part of the first covid peak? In there.

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
PrincessNutNuts · 16/01/2021 18:32

Clearer version of the ONS chart linked to by Christmas Giles of the FT:

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
Marleymoo42 · 16/01/2021 18:55

It's because in the first lockdown deaths were included for anyone who had had a positive case, even if they had recovered from covid. So you could have had covid, recovered, got hit by a bus and been on the numbers. 28 days gives a more accurate figure of when covid contributed to the death.

AethelsWhiteGoose · 16/01/2021 18:58

The last time the UK ‘excess’ death rates were so high was during WW2. If anyone is still in any doubt.

IsabellaMozzarella · 16/01/2021 19:14

Thanks for detailed responses. I like it when I learn Star

OP posts:
lightand · 22/01/2021 16:51

I dont understand why the government is doing it this way.

Getting run over by the proverbial bus, 27 days after having covid, well no wonder the UK becomes top, of the world figures.

[Not that I actually know how other countries do their count].

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 22/01/2021 17:00

Because unlike a lot of countries, we don't count the number of people 'recovered' from COVID. So it is the only way we can do it quickly for the headline daily figures. The actual number of deaths is probably higher as more than half of the 60 day deaths actually have Covid recorded as cause of death on the death certificate and were removed from the 'daily totals figure'.

I think the ONS counts the number of deaths with Covid as a cause on the death certificate. The reason we have lots more deaths is because we have lots more cases than most other places.

PrincessNutNuts · 22/01/2021 21:40

@lightand

I dont understand why the government is doing it this way.

Getting run over by the proverbial bus, 27 days after having covid, well no wonder the UK becomes top, of the world figures.

[Not that I actually know how other countries do their count].

That doesn't happen.

It has never ever happened.

Sudden deaths are investigated. There will be autopsy reports, coroners and inquests etc.

What does happen, every single week is that people in hospital with covid take longer than 28 days to die.

And people boomerang back into hospital weeks or months later with the blood disorders, heart problems, or lung damage that covid gave them, and then, sadly die.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 22/01/2021 21:42

I don't think all of the people we didn't count in the first wave are counted in the official death total either. We still seem to be undercounting by more than we overcount.

PrincessNutNuts · 22/01/2021 22:12

You can see the undercount of covid deaths as the grey area above the black line and shaded area in the first peak.

Given their timing those excess deaths are very likely due to covid, but haven't been counted as such due to the shortage of tests at the time.

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
HarveySchlumpfenburger · 22/01/2021 23:15

The fact that it doesn't show up at other peaks suggests it's definitely covid. In fact, it's the opposite. Deaths from other causes is down during the second period of increased excess deaths, as the red is under the black line.

Bluethrough · 22/01/2021 23:24

Getting run over by the proverbial bus, 27 days after having covid, well no wonder the UK becomes top, of the world figures

As opposed to surviving in ICU for 28 days and then dying of CV on the 29th???

Look at the excess deaths? (over the 5 year average) most (in EU) countries do similar and we are at number one :(
& one of the highest in the RoW.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 22/01/2021 23:33

Does anyone else wonder how many people had been hit by a bus within 60 days of a Covid test?

PrincessNutNuts · 22/01/2021 23:41

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Does anyone else wonder how many people had been hit by a bus within 60 days of a Covid test?
It's none.
Madhairday · 23/01/2021 00:09

I saw this and thought it was quite helpful on this (though couple weeks out of date.)

X,XXX deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test...
Madhairday · 23/01/2021 01:00

And this even more so (in fact this whole website is excellent.)
www.covidfaq.co/Claim-People-are-dying-with-Covid-but-not-of-Covid-e9d5af56419a438bb626bb08271b3b69

ChocOrange1 · 23/01/2021 05:20

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Does anyone else wonder how many people had been hit by a bus within 60 days of a Covid test?
Not many, but "hit by a bus" is really an example of "died of something unrelated to covid". The bus is used because nobody could argue that it could be caused by covid. But someone could test positive and be asymptomatic for covid and then die within 28 days of something unrelated e.g. cancer, heart attack, accident, sepsis, alzheimer's etc etc. And be counted as a "covid" death.
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