So what's the plan if the vaccine is only effective for a short period?

[NextWinter]

Due to it being novel, there are no long term studies on the vaccination so no knowledge of how long it works. My mum will recieved hers on Monday as is very excited and planning a big family holiday for Christmas (which I've already tried to explain isn't the best idea)
Let's say she gets the second jab end of April, if it's like the Flu jab it will have wont be effective by next winter. So will she need another jab, and if so will there be stocks if we need to immunise the world?

Probably annual jabs, given along with flu jab

I am wondering this too.

Apparently, with the new Brazil variant, it will take a month to tweak an old one[cant remember which one].

But what if there is a new variant next month, and the one after, and the one after that, that current vaccines are not effective enough for?

Chasing our tails.

@tuttifuckinfruity

Probably annual jabs, given along with flu jab

Yes, I get and accept annual jabs but what about this autumn, we won't have finished vaccinating adults, there is already a supply problem and the maths used to calculate how many vaccines we will need (and have purchased) is based on people needing two. It's quite possible that actually people will need four as the two they are getting now will be worthless next winter. In fact people face the prospect of being the most protected over the summer when the risks are much lower. There is a reason that flu clinics start in September.

I was thinking this!

Only time will tell.

@lightand

I am wondering this too.

Apparently, with the new Brazil variant, it will take a month to tweak an old one[cant remember which one].

But what if there is a new variant next month, and the one after, and the one after that, that current vaccines are not effective enough for?

Chasing our tails.

I've wondered this, they talk about 'tweaking' as if it's easy, but as they can't 'tweak' the doses already given does that mean that even if the one my mum gets on Monday gives her lifelong immunity to the original covid varient, she will be just as at risk if the dominant varient becomes one of the new ones her jab doesn't cover.

I've not seen any evidence that the vaccine isn't effective against the Brazilian varient.
Honestly, is everyone trying to make themselves and everyone else shit-miserable?
Way to piss on your mother's parade OP.

It may end up like the flu jab where there is a slightly tweaked vaccine every year. It sounds infinitely better than the options we had only a couple of months ago.

Whatever happens, I'm planning on enjoying the summer. If I have to be cautious next winter so be it.

There is research underway into a Cambridge vaccine which is designed to protect against lots of Coronaviruses and future mutations. Early days though. They got 1.9 million of Gov funding and are in early stage trials.

www.uhs.nhs.uk/ClinicalResearchinSouthampton/Research/News-and-updates/Articles/Cambridge-vaccine-trial-to-start-in-Southampton.aspx

Apologies for my dreadful spelling/grammar/sentence cohesion, no excuse.

It seems likely that some restrictions will be in place next winter, if not to the extent that we have current restrictions.

At the moment nobody can say what the situation will be then because there are too many unknown variables - how long the vaccine lasts, where it stops spread and how effective it will be against new variants.

Obviously there is hope that there will be good news on all fronts and improved treatment. There just isn’t the evidence to make definite predictions yet.

‘Whether it stops spread’

Im hoping it goes like this....everyone gets vaccinated as planned this year, then there will be an annual covid vaccine which is targeted at those who need the flu vaccine, the rest of us crack on and if we get it it will be in a mild form, isolate for a few days (actually take time off work and not carry on as we often do) and the world carries on.
I live in hope!!!

I asked something similar on a different thread earlier today. Also queried that the number who need a COVID vaccine is potentially higher than the flu vaccine do we have resources to keep doing this? It has potential to be a never ending merry go round. And would it be ethical to say start “round 2” (not to be confused with jab 2) in UK if other countries haven’t had enough vaccine to vaccinate their populations?

@MaxNormal

I've not seen any evidence that the vaccine isn't effective against the Brazilian varient. Honestly, is everyone trying to make themselves and everyone else shit-miserable? Way to piss on your mother's parade OP.

I haven't, I've certainly not spoken to my mother about it - although I have said I don't think organising a family holiday (abroad, six families 15 school aged children, four ECV) which will require deposits etc is a very good idea.

I just haven't read anything about how the govt is planning for the next stage, I've seen lots of people accept that it will be annual like flu but I am struggling to see the logistics in making this work.

@CKBJ

I asked something similar on a different thread earlier today. Also queried that the number who need a COVID vaccine is potentially higher than the flu vaccine do we have resources to keep doing this? It has potential to be a never ending merry go round. And would it be ethical to say start “round 2” (not to be confused with jab 2) in UK if other countries haven’t had enough vaccine to vaccinate their populations?

And would it be ethical to start round 2 when adults in this country haven't had round 1? Agree with the ethical problem in a world view.

Don't get MaxNormal view. Most years flu migrates. 2 years ago my GP advised me not to have the flu jab because it had already mutated and it was suggested that it now wasn't worth having the flu Jab.

I originally thought that the vaccine once given would provide immunity for some time. I am cross how this new suggestion, that the supposed vaccine that we all have been waiting for, actually won't give us immunity for very long, has been cleverly been mentioned in the news casually. Without announcing it, recognising that this actually is a huge deal. And needs talking about.

@merrymouse

It seems likely that some restrictions will be in place next winter, if not to the extent that we have current restrictions.

At the moment nobody can say what the situation will be then because there are too many unknown variables - how long the vaccine lasts, where it stops spread and how effective it will be against new variants.

Obviously there is hope that there will be good news on all fronts and improved treatment. There just isn’t the evidence to make definite predictions yet.

I agree, it is good news but the problem is the vaccine has been promoted as some kind of panacea, certainly by the places my mother gets her information.

One assumes though that it wont all suddenly stop for everyone at the same time though with vaccinations

We manage it with flu - the effects of flu without a vaccine each year would be pretty devastating.

I think this is why we have gone with the Oxford one - we can manufacture here. Look at what variants are around tweak and then vaccine accordingly.

We wont need everyone though just enough to keep it at a manageable level like we do with the flu every year.

I was looking at the CDC about this. Basically, lots of variants which could do lots of things to the viruses effects. The one we have to watch is (I kid you not) "escape mutants". At last, proper apocalyptic language. These evade the vaccines.

They are more likely with vaccinations because mutations that cause success are replicated, and success against vaccines is mutating to not be prevented by them.

However, becoming impervious to vaccines, longer incubation period, less fatal and more catching are the 'good' mutations if you are a virus. Less fatal would be nice!

I think it's likely to be repeated vaccination, better treatments (tamiCOVID?), better prevention and some changes in our behaviour.

I agree a Christmas holiday might be optimistic however if most of the vulnerable population have had their second or maybe third dose by then they will be less likely to need hospital. In the general population there will be greater immunity either from having it or the vaccine, even if the extent varies between individuals. We might even begin to approach some sort of herd immunity. People will still catch coronavirus and die from it, but not in the same numbers we are seeing now.