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Original poster

How soon do you think Israel will see vaccine effects?

14 replies

Thimbleberries · 14/01/2021 10:45

They're up to almost a quarter of their population now. Surely within a week or two, it should have fairly dramatic effects? (A good proportion must be getting close to the 3 weeks needed for immunity to develop by now). Any good data on their rates before vs now? I suppose it also depends what their lockdown and travel/quarantine policies are, and how widespread it was to start with.

OP posts:
FourTeaFallOut · 14/01/2021 10:48

There is some emerging data but, as you say, more time is needed.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/early-data-israeli-vaccine-programme-suggests-infection-rates/

Original poster
Thimbleberries · 14/01/2021 10:51

thanks - can't read the full article but the headline sounds promising!! Will look forward to more news soon

OP posts:
FourTeaFallOut · 14/01/2021 10:54

Oh, yeah, paywall, sorry...try this instead

www.timesofisrael.com/how-well-does-the-vaccine-work-israels-real-world-stats-can-be-globes-guide/

Original poster
Thimbleberries · 14/01/2021 11:07

ah thanks, that all sounds like good news.

I hope that even by mid Feb here, we will start to see some effects, not so much on infection rates as that will mostly be due to lockdown effects, and plenty of younger people still being infected overall, but I hope that the first signs will be in death rates lowering faster than otherwise expected after a lockdown.

OP posts:
ivfbeenbusy · 14/01/2021 11:12

The thing is the vaccine doesn't stop transmission just reduce severity of symptoms so it's really only the hospital admission figures and deaths which will be relevant and that may take 2-4 weeks to show any impact

Acidburn · 14/01/2021 11:13

My parents live in Israel. They have got their vaccine already. Also lota of my friends did - they are all young.

HSHorror · 14/01/2021 11:18

Did israel not do covax or whatever it is called where uk has agreed not to give more than a certain % a vax?

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 14/01/2021 11:22

‘The thing is the vaccine doesn't stop transmission just reduce severity of symptoms ‘

No, the point is we don’t yet know how much effect it has on transmission (most likely some but we’d be lucky if it stopped transmission altogether).

Mousehole10 · 14/01/2021 11:25

@HSHorror

Did israel not do covax or whatever it is called where uk has agreed not to give more than a certain % a vax?
No, and neither did we. We’ve pledged a lot of money to Covax but not actually signed up to only a certain % of our population vaccinated.
PuzzledObserver · 14/01/2021 11:29

@ivfbeenbusy

The thing is the vaccine doesn't stop transmission just reduce severity of symptoms so it's really only the hospital admission figures and deaths which will be relevant and that may take 2-4 weeks to show any impact
It is not yet known whether the vaccine does or does not stop transmission. There is no evidence that it does, but equally none that it doesn’t. Time will tell.

If “all” the vaccine does is reduce severity of symptoms, it will still reduce cases massively. Because most people get tested when they’ve got symptoms, rather than asymptomatically. And if the vaccine means they are not showing symptoms, they will be nothing to prompt them to get tested.

To put it another way - mass vaccination could greatly increase the rate of asymptomatic infection.

However, personally I believe (based on what the scientists who developed the vaccines have said) that the vaccines will reduce transmission significantly, although not eliminate it.

sunshinesupermum · 14/01/2021 11:34

I hadn't appreciated that the vaccine wouldn't eliminate transmission but only reduce the severity of symptoms! I thought it would be like the flu vaccine which generally speaking is expected to prevent you from getting flu.

This needs to be widely circulated if true as I envisage many people rushing out as soon as lockdown ends to mix with other people 'safe' in the knowledge that have been vaccinated. :-(

FourTeaFallOut · 14/01/2021 11:44

A large number of vaccines do not prevent transmission. It is not yet known if this one will yet. The figures coming out of Israel do suggest that you can curb the risk of infection in as little as two weeks with only one dose. That's before you get to the damage limitation the vaccine does in terms of severity of illness.

But yeah, the end is nigh Hmm

PuzzledObserver · 14/01/2021 14:46

This needs to be widely circulated if true

Oh, EVERYBODY on MN knows the vaccines don’t prevent transmission (despite being told repeatedly that we don’t know yet, there is no evidence either way,) so of course the sky is going to fall in and we’re going to be locked down for ever.

The leaflet given when someone has the vaccine clearly states:

“we do not know yet whether it will stop you from catching and passing on the virus, but we do expect it to reduce this risk. So, it is still important to follow the guidance in your local area to protect those around you.”

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