1 in 5 people in the England have had covid 19

[weepingwillow22]

Analysis shows 12.4 million people (1 in 5) have been infected since the start of the pandemic. In some areas 1 in 2 people were thought to have been infected.

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Despite this rates of infection are rising sharply suggesting that herd immunity is not very effective presumably becuase immunity only lasts a few months.

This also has implications for the long term. If 10% of the infected are thought to develop long covid that is over 1 million people.

But we wouldn't see herd immunity at 20% anyway

presumably becuase immunity only lasts a few months

This conclusion makes no sense.

I thought to see herd immunity infections had to be somewhere between 65-80% of the population?

You’d need somewhere around 80% to get herd immunity. Natural immunity looks like it lasts for about a year. Both are estimates based on the data we have.

Your conclusion about herd immunity seems a bit off, even in the areas where the rate is 1 in every 2.

This is why less people are following lockdown rules too, even though immunity might only last a couple of months there’s a feeling among people who’ve had it that lockdown is pointless for them now since they’ve had it

Wow. Thats a lot. Thinking abojt my family andnthe school size.
Is this only those tested?

How do they know? I was in a thread with those of us who thought we had it last march but antibodiesnin sept didnt show up.

presumably becuase immunity only lasts a few months

I haven’t read any evidence to suggest this - do you have a source?

I think 1 in 5 sounds about right but 1 in 2 in some places is pretty shocking

It's over 1 in 3 in my area.

I think herd immunity has to be much higher than 20%. We've had local measles outbreaks and that's with about 90% of children being vaccinated in our area.

@RememberSelfCompassion

Wow. Thats a lot. Thinking abojt my family andnthe school size. Is this only those tested?

How do they know? I was in a thread with those of us who thought we had it last march but antibodiesnin sept didnt show up.

I think they have calculated it using the IFR

Herd immunity doesn't have to be total to slow infections down, it can start kicking in at a lower % . It's thought that this has been happening in some areas - NYC, London, densely populated areas of India, N and S Dakota, etc.
Although we can't rely on it, it might bring the peak forward a bit, and make the effects of vaccination programme be seen slightly earlier.

@2021isthenew2020

It's over 1 in 3 in my area.

I think herd immunity has to be much higher than 20%. We've had local measles outbreaks and that's with about 90% of children being vaccinated in our area.

Measles is more contagious than this virus, even the new variant. That's why they aim for such a high uptake of the vaccination.

"I thought to see herd immunity infections had to be somewhere between 65-80% of the population?"

Think it might be slightly higher with the new variant. The more transmissible it is the higher the proportion of the population that need immunity.

Yep. You'd need only 1 in 5 not to have had it to achieve herd immunity.

But with this new strain being extremely transmissible and everyone having every excuse not to follow each bit of guidance for all their own valid reasons - we could get their quicker than we think

@SacramentoQueen

There are multiple studies which suggest an average of six months for immunity, possibly longer in some and less in others (for example 10% of previous confirmed COVID patients will lose immunity after 18-20 weeks).

There seem to be an awful lot of people who think they are immune having had it at the beginning, but along with new variants & the fact they quite possibly aren’t are putting themselves and others at risk. I know two people in London in their 30s, fit and healthy, who now have it for a second time & are more ill this time than in March.

The fact you don’t know if you are immune has been widely reported but seems to be passing a lot of people by. This is a recent article from Imperial College regarding immunity in people who have had COVID & the findings on the length of immunity found from their research:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211653/covid-19-immunity-lasts-over-months-antibody/amp/

All the latest research is showing immunity lasts at least 6-8 months (and that is only because that’s where we are in the pandemic).

That proves it -- I must barely know anybody in Britain!

Don't truly "know" anyone who has had it, & neither do rest of the household "know" anyone.

Not unless you count "daughter of a colleague I met once 5 years ago" type person. I do know of 2 such barely acquaintances who had confirmed covid, is all.

“presumably becuase immunity only lasts a few months”

According to?

If 12 million have had it, then I don’t think 10% can get long covid, really, can they? Because we don’t have 1 million people with long covid, do we?

Why are you saying immunity only lasts a few months? I love doom and gloom as much as the next person but it's even better when it's factual.

@2021isthenew2020

It's over 1 in 3 in my area.

I think herd immunity has to be much higher than 20%. We've had local measles outbreaks and that's with about 90% of children being vaccinated in our area.

The herd immunity threshold for measles is approximately 95%.

The more infectious a pathogen, the higher the R number, the higher the herd immunity threshold. You can calculate it from 1 - 1/R0.

R0 is the basic reproduction number, the number of people each infectious person infects when nobody is immune. It's not the same as the R number talked about in press conferences. That is Re - the effective or current reproduction number at this moment in now that some people have immunity and measures have been taken to control the R number.

@lljkk I know quite a few people who have it right now:
3 in SIL's workplace - non have symptoms, only found because its a care facility with regular testing (very small facility providing 1-1 care) which is why only 3.
SIL's boyfriend along with most guests who attended a wedding just before new year- think it was 20 guests as allowed in that country at the time, but I can imagine that no social distancing was observed and I'm sure the rules on drinking, etc were pushed. Non of the guests have any symptoms- again it was all found through testing of one guest through work.
DH's aunt went to hospital yesterday for a routine procedure and tested positive - she had no idea: no symptoms. Rest of her large family (7 living in one home) have been tested today, so possibly a lot more people.

So not a single one has symptoms- that is not said as an argument that Covid is not serious or any other covid-denier conspiracy. Each of those with no symptoms could pass it on and kill someone. Just pointing out that it might be very easy not to know anyone who has it, but for the rate to still be 1 in 5 when found through community sample testing.

@NaughtipussMaximus

If 12 million have had it, then I don’t think 10% can get long covid, really, can they? Because we don’t have 1 million people with long covid, do we?

It very much depends how you define 'long Covid'. The ONS defined it as including still having a cough five weeks on (which I'd say was quite common with any respiratory illness, even a cold?) and using that measure said 20% have it. That sounds perfectly plausible, but if we're defining 'long Covid' to mean 'unable to work or function long-term', which is what many people hear when they hear the phrase, then no, I don't think it's plausible that 1 million people have it.