Well considering that you had to be near enough at deaths door to get a test in the first couple months and that deaths were at around the same level....plus many people even now won't bother getting a test if someone in their household has had it confirmed and then others won't have been tested simply because they haven't had any symptoms or have had symptoms so mild its indistinguishable from a cold...
I would put the number at at least 10million and probably more. Not enough for herd immunity, but enough that even without the lockdown we would soon be starting to see a natural drop in infection rate.
I know why we have lockdown, and I know that such a high infection rate is not a good thing, but I have to try and see some sort of positive.
They're reckoning up to 1 in 20 people in Essex has it right now, thats up to 5% of the population that it won't be able to hit for at least the next few months. And thats just this weeks numbers, its built up to that over the last couple of weeks. So in parts of Essex I would say at least 25% of the population will have had it or will have had it over the next couple of weeks. And thats not even accounting for the asymptomatic infections.
But this is also not evenly spread, I'm in Tendring, numbers have gone through the roof. Only its not the whole district where this has happened. The part of tendring I'm in still has high numbers at 590/100000, but overall the district is 1200/100000, which means some areas must have much, much higher numbers. (In fact its the one town in the district that has really high numbers)