Infection rates in school-aged children dropped over Christmas

[noblegiraffe]

The first set of ONS data after schools closed for Christmas has been released and it shows an encouraging drop in the infection rate in primary and secondary school-aged children over the Christmas holidays, despite concerns over Christmas mixing. However, next week's data will be the one that will really show the impact (or not) of Christmas mixing.

Interestingly, it also shows a reasonable drop in the infection rate among 35-49 year olds who are most likely to be parents of school-aged children.

ONS data is based on random sampling so doesn't rely on children being symptomatic or being taken for tests by their parents so is a better reflection of the picture in children than case rates from testing.

The graphs do show worrying increases in infection rates in all groups over December, I'm thinking this is the impact of the new strain.

The data does suggest that if we want to make headway with reducing general infection levels we do unfortunately need schools to be closed for a period. Thought needs to go into where we want the levels to be before re-opening and what extra mitigation measures will be put in place to prevent levels simply shooting up in those age groups again. We also also need to keep an eye on whether primary schools being stuffed with keyworker kids affects the rates in that age group.

It will be interesting to see the rates over the coming weeks. I'd imagine more primary children than secondary will be in school taking KW places.

Yes, my secondary is pretty empty but obviously lots of primaries are struggling with huge numbers.

Encouraging drop?! If you look at the data it shows that infection rates amongst children on Christmas Day which was precisely why schools were pleading for online learning for the last week of term to make Christmas mixing safer. The government not only refused but threaten legal against schools wanting to do this. And now the Government is allowing huge numbers back in school as ‘key workers’ so yes, I suspect rates amongst primary kids will increase.
I’m a teacher and eligible for a key worker place for my own primary age children but you couldn’t pay me to put my kids in school at the moment. I will only be teaching in school because I have to and I will be wearing PPE even though the Government says I shouldn’t.

Does it not show s drop in all age groups? Not saying schools didn't need to close but I can't see the point you're trying to make.

It doesn't show a drop in all age groups. Younger adults still rose, albeit a bit slower than before. It shows that when schools are closed less children catch covid (and people of their parents age band), which is promising for the lockdown strategy having an impact. 3 age groups showed a large drop - under 11s, secondary age and 35-49s. Other ages seemed less affected.

Well flags, it would be promising if the lockdown actually included schools being properly closed....

@JanuaryChill

Well flags, it would be promising if the lockdown actually included schools being properly closed....

True... Think it does show that covid spreads in schools, just like every other respiratory virus.

I'd hope the lockdown does show an effect on secondary, I think it's mainly primary that are having issues with loads of children. We (in secondary) don't have loads in, more than last time but still low numbers and in small socially distanced groups.

We have significantly more in our secondary this lockdown than the

March one.
We start testing this week - that will be interesting!