To think that this is Herd Immunity strategy

[WonderingFree]

There’s incompetence and there’s incompetence, this is in another level:

Reopening schools for 1-day and assuring us that it was safe, and clearly it wasn’t
Keeping Early Years open
Threatening legal action to schools if they closed 2 weeks early before Christmas
Threatening parents with fines if they took their children out of school
Taking a virus day off for Christmas and encouraging household mixing
Changing the message from stay home too early
Eat out to help out
Delays in PPE
Delays in closing the borders
And now messing around with the 2 jabs schedule

This isn’t incompetence this is wilful strategy of herd immunity achieved if around 65% of the population get the disease. Boris told us he was going to do this on This Morning that we should ‘take it in the chin’.

Let’s see if the vaccination programme stalls too but we really already know the answer.

I do wonder how much of the population have had it. Don’t the ons reckon 100k cases a day early 2020, before they were doing tests on the general non hospitalised public? + your asymptomatic people & those who claim it’s only the flu so they won’t be getting tested.

He actually specifically said he didn't agree with the suggestion of 'taking it on the chin'.

He said that, Ducky, but the damage was done. And he lies. I think he knew it would be unpopular so hedged his bets. As usual.

When you see areas on 1500 cases per day per 100000 consistantly for days / weeks it wont be long before herd immunity.

Zoe figures look to be platueing/ decreasing we could potentially be at a natural peak already and on the way back down.

Zoe figures look to be platueing/ decreasing we could potentially be at a natural peak already and on the way back down

This is what ive always thhought would happen anyway, its the natural progression of things. An eminent swedish virologist (cant remember his name!) said at the start that there would end up being similar situations in most countries despite measures taken - that the virus would have to peak and then it will start to decline. He said countries like NZ and Oz would initially look good but will possibly just be putting off the inevitable (this was way before the vaccine)

I think closing the borders and strict testing/quarantine would have been the only answer but it was always going to be nigh on impossible in europe. The hourse bolted very early on.

I think a virus does what it does. The whole of Europe is in a middle right now but with vaccines being rolled out literally as we speak in many countries it’ll look brighter soon.

I also don’t think we’ll be looking enviously at New Zealand come the 2nd half of 2021 when they still have closed borders and a small supply of vaccine to roll out.

No, I don't agree.

Viruses spread. There is only a limited amount anyone can actually do about that in reality, once you've gone past a certain point (eg. New Zealand shutting borders very early on in the game) There is literally very little at this stage that can be done to control things bar the restrictions that are in place and getting people vaccinated. And someone will come on and say 'tighter restrictions,' except that's not really possible in reality, not in this country. You can only do that if people are willing to comply (and largely they aren't) or if you are authoritarian about the matter and we don't operate that way in the west for good reason.

I was thinking this new strain could even be a good thing as it will accelerate the natural end of the pandemic.

@Grobagsforever

I was thinking this new strain could even be a good thing as it will accelerate the natural end of the pandemic.

It's not great as it does mean more deaths in total, but it will bring the end of the Pandemic closer if it is uncontrollabe.

Zoe figures look to be platueing/ decreasing we could potentially be at a natural peak already and on the way back down

Could we refer that to a ‘natural peak’ given the varying levels of restrictions implemented since coming out of lockdown?

I agree the government have done an awful job throughout esp sending the kids back to school for one day.
However, the virus is hard to contain and people don't like being told what to do.
Maybe we will get to herd immunity quickly with the new variant.

@starfro

It's possible it might mean the same number of deaths over a shorter period though?

Well if things carry on as they are soon 3 million people a month will be catching it? So guess it depends what can go faster, the virus or the vaccination programme.🤷‍♀️ At some point the number of people catching it will go down but I think mainly due to a lot of people having caught it.

"I also don’t think we’ll be looking enviously at New Zealand come the 2nd half of 2021 when they still have closed borders and a small supply of vaccine to roll out."

Interestingly I read today that NZ and Aus are not even particularly keen to start vaccinating - they would prefer to wait to see how it rolls out elsewhere. I assume they're planning to keep borders closed (except for travel corridors with each other, maybe?) until after they have started vaccinating - or maybe require proof of vaccination plus quarantine?
(I realise their borders aren't completely closed at the moment - citizens are allowed to return if they quarantine - using shorthand there.)

According to an expert I follow on Twitter there is no way of suppressing the virus now all we can do is delay the inevitable whilst vaccinating. He seems to think the pandemic will be over in a few weeks and things will return to some kind of normality by June/July. The virus has let rip now, I dread to think of the daily death rate in 2-3 weeks, it will be horrendous.

@billycorn

According to an expert I follow on Twitter there is no way of suppressing the virus now all we can do is delay the inevitable whilst vaccinating. He seems to think the pandemic will be over in a few weeks and things will return to some kind of normality by June/July. The virus has let rip now, I dread to think of the daily death rate in 2-3 weeks, it will be horrendous.

He thinks the whole pandemic will be over in a few weeks??

Lol its only 3m a month so 5% or so. In addition to the 10 or so in london.

10% -6.8m
4.4% 3m in jan say
1.4% --1+m vax

15.8%. End of jan
21.6% end of feb if similar vax and 3m more catch
I do t think it could go fast per as 100k a day infected plus many staying in hospital over the 28d.

What could happen is herd immunity of people socialising etc.

It could be slowed it would be stay in unless your 1 time a week shop etc

herd immunity?
Since there probably isnt lasting immunity then 'herd immunity' is a surely a euphemism for 'a cull of those who cant withstand the virus'?

Actually there's increasing evidence for some lasting immunity. This is one study but Oxford and La Jolla have published papers too. The vaccination roll out will help us achieve herd immunity, but the high level of community infection should also contribute to a drop in the R.

www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2020/smd/study-finds-evidence-of-lasting-immunity-after-mild-or-asymptomatic-covid-19-infection.html

Why isn't there lasting immunity? People have retained immunity to SARS for 17 years.
There are a tiny tiny tiny number of reinfected people (not Testing PCR positive more than once...a positive PCR is not infection)

It's not a good thing to aim for herd immunity.
Yes, I agree with the OP that this is starting to feel too incompetent, especially with the strictness in not allowing parents or schools any choice in protecting their communities when numbers were rising.

If we actually did go for herd immunity, though, without vaccines or any lockdowns, it'd be democide.
Having the virus doesn't create as strong an immunity as a vaccine does. So you might get it again, possibly worse, a second time. Plus you're looking at 2.5 million people dying from Covid, plus however many millions more from other things because the hospitals are overrun. Then there's long Covid - which "affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s."

So you're looking at losing a huge chunk of the population, with more than 1 in every 5 over 70s probably needing extra care, 1 in every 10 working people possibly needing time off and suffering from long-term, sometimes very serious injuries from it (damage to heart/lungs/kidneys), most people suffering from bereavement of family and friends... it would be unimaginably damaging. Anyone considering it is either not thinking about the consequences or completely sociopathic.

No you're being far too charitable thinking there's a strategy! This is just delayed dithering.

Sorry, *you're looking at 1.70 million+ people dying from Covid

I don't think anyone wants to see the NHS over whelmed and would consider it a price worth paying, even if they liked herd immunity. Except for some nut jobs here who have got twisted up in knots in an echo chamber. But they're not making policy, they're posting on chat sites saying inane things like 'Death comes to us all' and they don't have to answer hard questions about what happens to mortality rates from other illnesses when every hospital becomes a covid hospital.