How quickly would it spread

[[AUTO]a41crkjo6gcxr]

Say there was no social distancing or masks abd everywhere was open.

Say you took one positive case and they went round crowded bars and clubs over Christmas, how quickly would it spread? How many would get sick? How many would die? Given all the people in those places then went back home and to work with zero distancing or precautions

@LangClegsInSpace

The older strains of the virus are estimated to have an R number of 3 with no restrictions. The new UK variant is estimated to increase the R number by 0.5-0.7 if I remember correctly. So each person would on average pass the virus on to 3.5 - 3.7 people.

The average time from contact to becoming infectious / getting symptoms is about 5-6 days.

So I reckon infections would quadruple each week or so.

I thought the new variant was 70% more transmissible, rather than increasing the R0 by 0.7. So if the R0 of the original strain was 3 then the R0 of the new strain would be 5.1. Getting into the same ballpark as the transmissibility of Polio.

(Far less virulent though, obviously).

Yes, you're right Polkadot. 50-70% more transmissible.

I think perhaps the 0.5 to 0.7 increase I heard about was to the R number with all the measures in place, which at the time was hovering around 1. I'll see if I can find where I heard that.

@LangClegsInSpace

Yes, you're right Polkadot. 50-70% more transmissible.

I think perhaps the 0.5 to 0.7 increase I heard about was to the R number with all the measures in place, which at the time was hovering around 1. I'll see if I can find where I heard that.

Oh yes I think that I remember that, in one of the press conferences. That was the estimated actual increase with restrictions as you say, whereas the R0 is the unrestricted growth rate.

Ok so there were a few cases, immediate lockdown, no new community cases for over a week now, hopeful announcement of end of lockdown tomorrow.

People did break lockdown rules and went to prison.

Short, sharp, stringently enforced lockdown with massive community buy in.

Comes from just before the steep climb in Europe last March, but evidence centring on Ischgl might show a likely example. Deaths not tracked, even confirmed numbers, but 28 are known (deaths - and presumably young or fit enough to take a ski holiday): www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/everyone-was-drenched-in-the-virus-was-this-austrian-ski-resort-a-covid-19-ground-zero

not as much as people say

yes people quote doubling and quadrupling on here but figures here released in press don't show anything like that - they rise but nowhere near that rate

i know so many who worked 1-1 or have family members who tested positive but close contacts didn't - its not as transmissible as we think

Thanks for the info, OP.

@Pastanred

i know so many who worked 1-1 or have family members who tested positive but close contacts didn't - its not as transmissible as we think

Exactly, and events here the last few weeks would pretty much back that up.

They have announced "at risk" locations and times on local news and asked people to look.out for symptoms and in one case (a wine bar, packed on New Years Eve where a member of staff later tested positive) for everyone there to isolate.

Positive cases had been to cafes, bars, Mark and Spencer, Tesco, other local shops you won't have heard of.

Very little transmission outside of households and a quick lockdown and its gone again.