If vaccinating the vulnerable and lockdown gets us out of this current hospital crisis - what next?

[bookmarket]

I'm failing to see how we can get our lives back even after the most vulnerable have been vaccinated and hospital admissions to ICU are lowered.

My whirring thoughts....

Can we really expect much of normal life to return when a huge percentage of the population won't be vaccinated? How will that look? Won't it just flare up again and will that be okay if ICU isn't overrun, even if large amounts of people end up in hospital?

Will we have to show a negative test before we can do anything, travel, weddings, sport events, theatre? How can we ever plan anything if we have to have a negative test to be allowed to participate? How will Universities and schools be normal in the winter if people and close contacts still have to self-isolate if they are covid+. Will those who are vaccinated still be vectors and might they spread it more as their behaviour, and those who are related to them, will change?

I think many people think that once the risk of death has been lowered to an acceptable level, it means we'll be able to go back to life as usual, treating it like flu. But the numbers of people who will be significantly ill, even if not at risk of death, could still be high and problematic if it is occurring simultaneously.

1st year University students already succumb to freshers flu every year, so we know covid will easily spread again through University halls of residence if the virus has not been suppressed. Will they spend two terms of isolation and learning from their rooms again?

As I say - questions whirring round my head. I'm happy to be pointed towards some stats and possible case scenarios

Oh - and I name changed. I'm a 16 years long member of MN!

Probably a continuous vaccination program like the flu jab.

It will take a while but little patience normal life will resume I just think it will take a little longer than we all want.

I'm with you OP, whirl between wildly optimistic one day and catastrophic thoughts the next! Actually hourly not daily! 🙄

My biggest concern is that the endless lockdowns have set a precedent. Will it mean that every time the NHS is overwhelmed (i.e. every winter) we'll be forced into a lockdown to protect it?

Why would large amounts of non vulnerable people end up in hospital? They don’t now. Look at the demographics.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55579028

My friend wants to have a house party in May.

We’re all in our twenties. I’m loosing patience of saying no ‘as we all have to do our part’. I’m thinking fuck it, surely everyone has to have a limit. We can’t spend the next Xmas isolating?

Your own OP says it - vaccinate the vulnerable, they won't be in hospital, therefore the hospitals won't be overrun and we can crack on with opening everything back up.

@DappledOliveGroves

My biggest concern is that the endless lockdowns have set a precedent. Will it mean that every time the NHS is overwhelmed (i.e. every winter) we'll be forced into a lockdown to protect it?

This is my worry too , that weve just become too obsessed with numbers, cases rising etc.

If this is the case , I'll just make my own decisions. Absolutely no way am I having no social life every winter.

There was a flu pandemic in the 60s which killed an estimated 1-4 million worldwide. That strain of flu is apparently still in circulation every year. I didn't even know about this pandemic until recently but I don't think there were repeated 'lockdowns' because of it. Could be wrong though. Anyway, my point is, in a few decades, we could be back to normal.

I think we'll have an element of restrictions/social distancing but a while but these will be slowly eased as more are vaccinated. Some things may still exist, ie the limit of six together, until everyone over the age of 18 has been offered the vaccine, but that's still far better than we have now. Also, when we get into spring/summer it'll be a lot more attractive to exercise/meet people at a pub/garden outside.

@DappledOliveGroves

My biggest concern is that the endless lockdowns have set a precedent. Will it mean that every time the NHS is overwhelmed (i.e. every winter) we'll be forced into a lockdown to protect it?

It's a scary thought but take comfort in the fact that we actually just can't afford to do this so it won't happen!

I think reality is going to hit hard for the people that want these restrictions to continue in successive winters. Rather than clamour for lockdowns, it would be good if people put pressure on the government to fund the NHS properly. And elect governments who would actually do this! It would be cheaper than lockdowns anyway.

The way I see if is the longer the virus is around the more chance it has of mutating. Also the more people that have it at one time the higher the viral load and severity of the virus which is why more people are hospitalised. If vulnerable people and the elderly are vaccinated, if they do still catch it it is likely to be less severe so less people will need hospital treatment. But the rest of us still need to follow the rules and mix as little as possible so that it has less chance to spread and mutate. Then we will have a better chance of keeping it under control.

@DappledOliveGroves

My biggest concern is that the endless lockdowns have set a precedent. Will it mean that every time the NHS is overwhelmed (i.e. every winter) we'll be forced into a lockdown to protect it?

That one will come down to money. Is it cheaper (as far as the government is concerned) to lock down the country, or large parts of it, versus investing in more and better hospitals, health care workers, facilities and equipment?

Politicians aren't great at thinking long-term but I reckon once the cost of lockdown is calculated, it'll be cheaper and more efficient to boost capacity of hospitals for the knock-on effects of winter viruses.

@Mamamia456

The way I see if is the longer the virus is around the more chance it has of mutating. Also the more people that have it at one time the higher the viral load and severity of the virus which is why more people are hospitalised. If vulnerable people and the elderly are vaccinated, if they do still catch it it is likely to be less severe so less people will need hospital treatment. But the rest of us still need to follow the rules and mix as little as possible so that it has less chance to spread and mutate. Then we will have a better chance of keeping it under control.

And no point in actually living if life continues to be like this.

I'm in full support of this current lockdown. But living like this beyond the summer is just not do-able. Honestly might as well be dead!

Just before we reach the point of mass rebellion and only then, will everything magically open.
It's a farce.
We can't all put our lives on hold every year so that a few people who have already had theirs can live a bit longer.

From what I have heard their is an expectation that for the next two winters we may have to expect restrictions.

@Getitdonesharpish

From what I have heard their is an expectation that for the next two winters we may have to expect restrictions.

Source?

@Zenithbear

Just before we reach the point of mass rebellion and only then, will everything magically open. It's a farce. We can't all put our lives on hold every year so that a few people who have already had theirs can live a bit longer.

It's not about that. It's about trying to protect the NHS so it can perform to normal capacity on needs other than covid.

I'm in full support of this current lockdown. But living like this beyond the summer is just not do-able. Honestly might as well be dead!

True

Strawberry - I'm not suggesting it for every year, but if we all do what we can now then hopefully next winter will be different, but all the while people flout the rules, and by that I mean large gatherings, we are going to have difficulty controlling it.

@Zenithbear

Just before we reach the point of mass rebellion and only then, will everything magically open. It's a farce. We can't all put our lives on hold every year so that a few people who have already had theirs can live a bit longer.

Yes. Then the next lockdown will be a bit longer, and so on until people get used to living in lockdown conditions all year around.

@Zenithbear

Just before we reach the point of mass rebellion and only then, will everything magically open. It's a farce. We can't all put our lives on hold every year so that a few people who have already had theirs can live a bit longer.

Yes. And mass rebellion won’t be far off if we aren’t back to normal by spring/summer.

@Mamamia456

Strawberry - I'm not suggesting it for every year, but if we all do what we can now then hopefully next winter will be different, but all the while people flout the rules, and by that I mean large gatherings, we are going to have difficulty controlling it.

What we do or do not do now has no impact on next winter. It's not about people 'flouting' the rules. It's about a microscopic virus that thrives in the winter. Hopefully with mass vaccination - repeated annually if needed - the virus should be well under control by this time next year, if not much sooner.

My biggest concern is that the endless lockdowns have set a precedent. Will it mean that every time the NHS is overwhelmed (i.e. every winter) we'll be forced into a lockdown to protect it?

It won’t. This will slowly get back to normal.