I can now see a way out of covid!

[Icanseegreenshoots]

I can see the route out this spring and summer.

Those in the vulnerable groups and the elderly will be vaccinated soon, and whilst the rest of the country is being vaccinated - which will take some time the following could happen -

Schools will introduce bi weekly mass testing to stay open. Teachers will be vaccinated which means they will never close again.

Restaurants will ask for on the spot 15 minute tests before seating people, ditto all public venues. Mass testing will become part and parcel of our lives everything from music festivals to theatre shows will include a test regardless if you have had a vaccine or not.

The testing will become so common place we will not blink as we wait in careful lines to be admitted into places. Every company that works away from home will adopt their own policies.

Travel will be replicated by many tests and careful procedures allowing people to travel once again.

Masks will eventually be replaced with testing and vaccines, but they will still be used on public transport and other areas. We will largely be in control of all infection by this point, and drive it down to very very low numbers allowing for society to hug, dance and enjoy life once again.

This is the best case scenario in my view - and one I hope will be our reality soon enough.

It doesn't matter whether it stops transmission if it reduces the severity of the illness. If it just means that at most people have a bad cold why would you need to worry about getting it? OK there may still be a few vulnerable people, but they will be vulnerable to any illness, and we haven't stopped life for them because of colds or flu or chicken pox or norovirus...

The point is that you don't get sick or die. Quite an important point really.

I like your post OP and I also feel optimistic, even with the new strain. But what makes me smile slightly wryly is the similarities between what you are suggesting with (other than the vaccine) what HK and SKorea and so on were telling us to do back last January/February.

Once this is all over, I wonder if this experience will have changed our expectations of leadership, politics and government.

@frasersmummy

well nicola sturgeon has just said .. we dont know if the vaccine stops trasmission so vaccination might not mean we can get everything open..

well then whats the fn point??

Erm... to stop people dying? And to reduce the pressure on hospital beds and front line NHS staff.

can someone link the thread about people not wanting the vaccine?

There's no evidence one way or another that Pfizer and Oxford stop transmission. They work because they 'prime' the immune system, so soften the illness symptoms for the person catching it.

That doesn't mean they aren't still infected and a carrier.

There are vaccines in the works that do show signs of 'sterilising' immunity - Novavax is one - and that does mean that they stop the illness from replicating in the nose and throat and so spreading.

That's, obviously, better, because enough people dosed with that and we take the virus out of circulation altogether. 'Herd' immunity comes into play MUCH faster with a vaccine that can sterilise potential carriers.

BUT - the real big issue with Covid is how fast people are getting sick, rather than the illness it causes in a majority. If we get to a stage that we can be reasonably confident that those likely to actually have more than a couple of days of fluey symptoms are protected, then we can move to treating Covid like every other cold and flu - and we will.

It just might not happen immediately, because transmission won't be dropped by vaccination, and its going to take time to get as many people as needed vaccinated to protect them individually, rather than on a population level. It also increases the likelihood of it needing to be a repeated jab, and probably one which is reformulated as the virus mutates, but that's not new either. A previous poster said it - eventually we'll be lining up for our 'winter virus' jab, and it will be flu and Covid season.

Hmm will that be mass testing with the lateral flow tests that detect around 20% of all positive cases? Cause, yes I can see that totally solving the problem

@frasersmummy

well nicola sturgeon has just said .. we dont know if the vaccine stops trasmission so vaccination might not mean we can get everything open..

well then whats the fn point??

Just because we don't presently know that the vaccine stops transmission does not mean that it does not stop transmission. Just that there is as yet no evidence to prove it. Most experts seem confident that vaccines will indeed stop or at least limit transmission, as they do in other cases.

Once this stops killing people in large numbers then I believe testing will stop as it won’t be necessary. So once most over 60s and CEV people have been vaccinated.

Yes it will become like all the other viruses and illnesses we live with. Sometimes healthy people get pneumonia and end up in hospital and ill for months. Sometimes young healthy people unfortunately get sepsis and die. Lots of young people die of cancer.

If the NHS is not overwhelmed then it won’t be all about COVID anymore.

I hope we won't need daily testing if majority are vaccinated- especially as tests being brought into schools are not very accurate at all. Vaccine doesn't prevent you getting it but it makes your symptoms milder doesn't it, so less chance of needing hospitalisation and less chance of hospitals becoming overwhelmed. I do think vaccine is the way forward and am feeling optimistic!

@Chipsahoy

Fuck no, not a normality I want. Instead maybe government starts dumping money into nhs so we don’t have this shit show again and we get on with life

Exactly! No-one seems to be saying this!! There will be other pandemics. Start paying nurses properly and give people an incentive to be one! It’s not rocket science. How many hospitals and nurses would just the furlough bill pay for? That may be too late for this pandemic but we should be ready for the next one.

I like your optimism OP, I think we all need to be a little bit optimistic but I’m not sure all the things you suggest will happen or how long it will take to happen. I’m trying to be positive about the vaccine, I was in the gp surgery this morning and heard the gp’s talking about the vaccine which is beginning to be rolled out here at the weekend (for the over 80’s), they sound positive and want to get people vaccinated as fast as possible but I guess that depends on the availability of the vaccine and having enough people to administer it.

I can’t imagine having to be tested before sitting down in a restaurant? Will we have to sit outside and wait until we know the results? If so a lot of people will be sat waiting to enter restaurants and cafes 😕, I wouldn’t be keen on eating out. I would be happy to be tested if travelling abroad but then I’m unlikely to go abroad, I do think everyone coming in and out of the country should be tested before boarding a plane.

No thanks. It is seasonal so will start dying out in March anyway. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated (70+ years, obese and people who work with the vulnerable) we will be back to normal if there are any businesses left by summer apart from Tesco, Ocado, Amazon and Sainsbury’s.

I admire your optimism, OP - let's hope that is indeed the case.

Just one thing, I am not sure that the majority of people would put up with having a swab stuck up their nose and down their throat every time they wanted to go to a pub, restaurant, theatre or other event. I know I wouldn't - I'd rather not go at all!

Sounds pretty hideous! But like the sentiment..

@Nousernamesleftatall

No thanks. It is seasonal so will start dying out in March anyway. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated (70+ years, obese and people who work with the vulnerable) we will be back to normal if there are any businesses left by summer apart from Tesco, Ocado, Amazon and Sainsbury’s.

Seasonal? It peaked in April 2020 so why would it reduce by March this year?

Thanks @Icanseegreenshoots I feel like this today too. I'm a real worrier and have a tendency to overthink what might/might not happen. Have decided to to throw off the worry and celebrate that every day more people are vaccinated, the closer we get to some kind of normality :)

Not yet confirmed that it's seasonal but scientists think it's highly likely as it is surging in less temperate weather, much like flu.

Herd immunity will also influence its seasonality.

I think that society has survived much worse (bubonic plague etc)

There will be knockbacks to business - terrible for the individuals who see their work badly affected- and there will be opportunities too, when things improve and everyone wants to socialise again.

The legality of holding private medical data on an individual would be a stress most establishments would not want to deal with.

@junglepie

Hmm will that be mass testing with the lateral flow tests that detect around 20% of all positive cases? Cause, yes I can see that totally solving the problem

Interesting. Near everything I have read on the tests say its the PCR ones that are hugely unreliable, and the lateral flow ones are much more accurate and can test for active infection, where the PCR ones apparently can come back positive even when its dead covid cells from weeks back, or something like that.

Start paying nurses properly and give people the incentive to be one
Have you ever been a nurse? I have, and the pay wasn't the biggest issue really.

Vaccinating teachers won't cut transmission in schools because it's the pupils that are mainly spreading it.

@Icanseegreenshoots for PM

If it’s a mild disease for most then it will become like the other viruses that circulate. And most viruses are seasonal due to various reasons.

I’m optimistic about this summer.