Is there a chance the vaccine might not be successful?

[StitchInLime]

I've heard a few reporters say 'if the vaccines work' like there's a chance they might not.

Maybe they're referring to whispers the current vaccines might not be able to deal with the new strain (or is it proven now they will?)

Or maybe it's just the unknown. While the vaccines can stop (in most cases) serious symptoms, they don't stop transmission.

Or is this just reporters being overly cautious?

It's reporters trying to sell newspapers/get clicks.

While the vaccines can stop (in most cases) serious symptoms, they don't stop transmission.

That’s not true.

It is not yet demonstrated that they stop transmission, so cautious people assume that they won’t. But the chances are that they do at least reduce transmission, maybe to a large degree.

There are still unknowns, such as how long immunity lasts and what percentage of people need to be immune to provide meaningful herd immunity (that number is now higher because of the new variant), how long till another variant arises which has significantly different characteristics etc. These unknowns affect how well the vaccines are going to work, in the sense of bringing the pandemic under control.

Yes, there is a chance the vaccine will not continue to work, due to the risk of further mutation.

Bloody hell

It it’s just a small chance. Look, the media hypes everything up. They have to fill 24 hour news channels -please try not to worry

Presumably there's a much bigger chance it will continue to work though (or they wouldn't have bothered) and Valance was discussing it being possible to tweak the vaccine, but there is a chance the virus will change again.

The new strain in South Africa is the worry. However, the vaccine manufacturers have said they can tweak the vaccine and make it work for the varient within a few weeks, so it's not the end of the world, just a delay.

This is the problem with allowing the virus to spread like we did throughout autumn - it will mutate.

And vallance also explained that vaccines would probably still be effective, perhaps just less effective

I feel like it's wacky races now, vaccine vs various strains. Is a vaccine only able to deal with one strain at a time? Then you've a risk if there are multiple strains circulating?

If it mutates and the vaccine needs to be altered, do we have to start all over again? Could it be the never ending vaccination story basically?

@inquietant

I feel like it's wacky races now, vaccine vs various strains. Is a vaccine only able to deal with one strain at a time? Then you've a risk if there are multiple strains circulating?

I don't think so, or surely they'd be worried that if they do have to tweak the vaccines for the new strain, it would no longer be effective against the original version which is still in circulation.

@inquietant

I feel like it's wacky races now, vaccine vs various strains. Is a vaccine only able to deal with one strain at a time? Then you've a risk if there are multiple strains circulating?

I don't know though of course!

I assume it'll be similar to the flu jab in the future....most clinically vulnerable will be invited for the jab, the strain will likely alter but you will be vaccinated against the most recent strain of it.

The main “risk” of it not working will be due to people refusing to have it. There needs to be a large percentage of vaccinated people to stop this virus.

The creators of various vaccines have all said the same thing. Which is roughly that there vaccine could be altered in as little as six weeks to deal with new mutations.

A PP has said earlier in the thread. They may be referring to transmission, which we do not have data yet. First data expected in 2 to 3 months.
It is likely that vaccinated individuals will act as blocks to the transmission, by destroying the virus they get into contact with.
But, they could act as asymptomatic carriers.
We do not know yet.
Most likely, there will be a reduction in the transmission (as with vaccines against other illnesses).
It is better to assume it may not, so keep SD.
Regarding efficiency, we know they are efficient. The clinical trials have demonstrated so. The efficiency in the wider community will be measured too, it should show a marked reduction of serious illness due to covid in the groups vaccinated.